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September 20 Sheet

Air Force (+9.5) at California - Saturday - 2:00pm Pacific
The Falcons have more depth and talent this year than they have had since they went 11-1 in 1998. After a sub-par 6-6 season last year (first non-winning season since 1993), the team seriously rededicated themselves in the weight room during the offseason. They even went as far as to make a team pact not to consume any alcohol during the entire football season!

The dedication has paid off so far as the Falcons are off to a a solid 2-0 start. They absolutely dominated Northwestern 52-3 in the season opener. I know Northwestern is bad, but the fashion in which they beat them was particularly impressive. They followed that up with a win over New Mexico in OT in which they snapped a 3 year losing streak vs the Lobos who always seem to play them well. They probably would not have needed OT if not for a punt block with Air Force leading 24-10 in the 2rd quarter that changed the complexion of the game.

Air Force ranked 3rd in the country last year running the football and after two games this year ranks 1st. They are one of the only remaining teams to run the spread option in college football. Cal has not seen anything like it. The Falcons lost starting FB Dan Shaffer to injury for the season in game one and last week also played without starting HB Anthony Butler. Butler returned to practice on Monday and will play this week but not start. His speed gives Air Force an added dimension and he is a Bay Area native so this is a huge game for him. Junior starting QB Chance Harridge has looked great running the option (4.7 yards per carry). Head coach Fisher DeBerry calls him one of the best leaders they have ever had here. Senior RB Leotis Palmer is averaging 8.3 yards per carry. Air Force returns 6 starters on defense. They have not returned more than 6 on defense since 1992. They are said to have more speed on that side of the ball than ever. Their defensive schemes are almost as unconventional as the offense. The Falcons are very undersized and use a 3-5 alignment to make up for it. The offense never knows where the LB's are coming from.

Cal heads into this game a perfect 3-0. They have had everything go their way so far as they rank 2nd in the country at +3.33 turnovers per game. Their big 46-22 win at Michigan State last week is very misleading. The Spartans for some reason were not at all mentally prepared to start the game. Michigan State had the ball inside the Cal 5 yard line twice in the first quarter and came away with zero points. Instead of leading 14-0, they trailed 7-0 due to giving up a 90 yard punt return. MSU ended up with 4 first half turnovers, gave up a safety, and as mentioned the long punt return. Cal led 25-0 at half-time and their only offensive TD came on a trick pass play from the WR to the QB near the end of the half.

Even two weeks ago vs New Mexico State Cal had 30 less total yards and 9 less minutes of possession, but NMSU fumbled twice and botched an onside kick to start the game. In week one Cal throttled a very bad Baylor team with the help of 5 turnovers including two interception runbacks for TD's. Cal's new coaching staff certainly deserves credit for generating a renewed spirit in this years team after several years of dismay, but they simply are not yet the world beaters that they are being made out to be.

Despite 12 takeaways, Cal's defense has still yielded 361 yards per game. NMSU had a fair amount of success running the option against Cal's defense in week two. Some NMSU fans argued they should have ran more, but fell too far behind early and could not. Clearly, Air Force's option attack is much more formidable. As Cal head coach Tedford says, "For every way you try to defend them, they know exactly how to beat you." Cal suffered a big blow last week losing starting MLB and defensive signal caller John Klotsche to a knee injury for the season. Klotsche led the team in tackles last year and is one off from the lead this year despite missing the 2nd half last week. Top CB Jameel Powell and starting SS Bert Watts both suffered minor knee injuries last week and are listed as questionable. They are both expected to play but these are three very critical positions for defending the option. Cal has a big game next week vs Washington State and may not want to risk any further injury with the two who can play. Air Force ran for 261 yards vs New Mexico two weeks ago and many would argue that NM (from experience) can defend the spread option as well if not better than Cal.

Air Force has the benefit of an extra week to prepare for this game. Air Force has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games after a BYE week with an average covering margin of 12.7 points! Cal meanwhile will have a hard time focusing with all the hoopla and attention they are receiving from the big win last week and with trash talking Pac-10 co-favorite Washington State visiting next week. Air Force is extremely difficult to prepare for even under normal circumstances. The Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road openers, 14-6 ATS last 20 as a road dog, and 22-8 in their last 30 as an underdog overall. Before the wild Michigan State game last week this line would have been Cal -1, or -2. Air Force is the epitome of team football and will not beat themselves like all of Cal's opponents have done so far this year. I look for a hard fought game with the Falcons having a decent shot at an outright win. Take the points.

Air Force  1 UNIT

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