Friday September 29 Sheet

Illinois (+1) at Minnesota - 9:00am Pacific
Illini coach Ron Turner is suddenly a hot commodity after producing an 8-4 bowl winning team last year, just two years removed from an 0-11 season. Turner is now considered an offensive guru and formerly served as offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears. Nine offensive starters return from last years team that averaged 32.3 points a game! This is clearly one of the most potent offenses in the nation. Junior QB Kurt Kittner (27-of-38, 352 yards, 2 TD's vs Michigan) is one of the best in the nation. The offensive line returns all 5 starters and is one of the best in the Big 10. RB's Harvey and Cook provide excellent speed and power options respectively. At WR Greg Lewis (107 receiving yards last week) has tremendous hands and sophomore Walter Young (missed 2nd half vs Michigan, expected to start) is huge at 6-5, 217. This unit has all the key ingredients: talent, experience, and balance. The question mark for the Illini is on defense where they only returned 4 starters. They have a lot of young talent and looked promising through three and a half games allowing just 11.3 points per game in their first three contests and just 7 points to Michigan (scored after 40+ yard fake punt play) in the first half. The second half was a different story as Michigan rallied around QB Drew Henson in his first action of the year and put up 28 second half points. After leading by 10 points in the 4th quarter, late in the game Illinois was robbed on back to back horrible fumble calls, both going against them. They then had their final drive stopped at the 50 after a legit fumble. They even got a rare apology from the Big 10 officials. Truly, they should have won the game and would be 4-0 and a top 15 team heading into this. Last year in a similar scenario Illini blew a 28-7 second half lead and eventually lost in overtime to Indiana. The following week they were embarrassed at home by Minnesota in their homecoming game 37-7. They have learned from last years experience, and will be playing with revenge this time around. Players reportedly adopted a "this cannot happen again" attitude right after the Michigan loss. Minnesota coach Glen Mason came into this season with an amazing 22-11 ATS record while with the Gophers. They surged to an 8-4 record last year and made it to a bowl game for the first time since 1986. However, this appears to be a retooling year for the Gophers, and I expect Mason to give back his share of ATS wins this year, as they are no longer sneaking up on anyone. On offense, Minnesota is having to replace QB Cockerman and RB Hamner, two senior leaders that accounted for 37 of the teams 38 offensive touchdowns last year. On defense, they must replace Thorpe award winner Tyrone Carter who was not only the teams leading tackler, but the all time Division 1 leader in tackles by a defensive back! Losses like these are never easy to overcome and it has shown as Minnesota is just 2-2 and has not looked anything like last years team. They lost at home to Ohio U, and beat a Baylor team who lost their starting QB in the 2nd series of the game. Last week vs Purdue they were dominated falling behind 31-3 before scoring 3 garbage touchdowns in the 2nd half, two of which were direct results of a bad punt snap and a blocked punt. Minnesota earned only one first down (six three and outs) in their first seven possessions and were outgained 357-to-85 in the first half alone! They supposedly are using a limited playbook because of the young skill position players and it shows. This week QB Travis Cole, a JC transfer, will make his first start. He is more of a passing QB, which plays right into the strength of the Illini defense. But don't fool yourself, Minnesota is not going to beat anyone through the air, and from what I saw the QB change is not going to help much. Even with last years successful team, the Gophers were 0-3 at home vs ranked teams. Meanwhile, Illinois is 8-3 ATS on the road since 1998 and are currently on a three game Big 10 road game winning streak. I rate these two defenses evenly, but the Illini offense has huge edges in every category. There is very little chance the Golden Gophers will be able to match points here. The Fighting Illini bounce back and get a key win here and with their favorable schedule ahead keep their Rose Bowl hopes alive. Illinois  1 UNIT

Washington State at California (-6.5) - 2:30pm Pacific
Cal is a very young (13 underclassmen starters) but talented team. They have struggled offensively so far, but this could very well be their breakout game. They return 7 offensive starters from last year including highly touted QB Kyle Boller (#3 HS recruit in the nation in 1998). He has a cannon arm and tremendous potential but just has not been able to put everything together yet. Their offensive line has been shuffled around all season due to injuries but this week will be starting the same 5 as in the previous game for the first time all year. The running game is more than capable with talented sophomore Joe Igber leading the way. The wide receivers have had some growing pains but have ability, and they get back top JC recruit Heydorff & returnee Swafford from preseason injuries this week. The Bears offensive struggles don't come without excuses. Their last two games were in hostile environments vs very good teams at Illinois, and at Fresno State (Bulldogs have won 11 straight at home). They fell a 2-point conversion shy of taking the ranked Illini to overtime (even though Illini QB Kittner was held out of 2nd half with knee sprain) two weeks ago. Last week they were noticeably rattled (6 delay of game penalties) and although moved the ball well, only could score 3 points despite numerous chances. The Bears have at times used a no-huddle offense (which I always like) this year and are sticking to it, even though Holmoe says he will simplify the offense for Boller this week. Offensive coordinator Steve Hagen is in his second year here and truthfully this offense is overdue to show marked improvement. Meanwhile, Holmoe and defensive coordinator Setencich are two of the best defensive coaches out there and again the Cal defense is strong despite heavy losses from last year. They do have two 1st team Pac-10 performers on an imposing defensive line including All-American candidate Andre Carter. The back seven contains a plethora of young talent that although is inexperienced now, will have more than a few playing on Sundays down the road. They are getting better every week. The defense seemingly can keep Cal in any game and along with All-American punter Nick Harris they almost always win the field position battle. Washington State is coming off dismal 3-8 & 3-9 seasons and could be headed for even worse this year. They disappointed badly in their home opener vs Stanford and most recently lost at home to border rival Idaho for the second straight year. They would really be an embarrassment right now if not for their road win over a reeling (0-4) Utah team. The WSU run defense has been porous with starting defensive tackle Ing Aleaga out and things will not be better this week with starting LB James Price doubtful with a broken hand. They were even pushed around by an undersized Idaho team not known for their rushing attack for 216 yards on 44 carries last week! This could be just what the doctor ordered for the Cal offense. Even counting the Utah win, WSU head coach Mike Price is 24-33 (42%) ATS following a straight up loss for his career and is just 3-7 ATS last two years as a road dog. Meanwhile, even with the Fresno loss, Tom Holmoe is a solid 12-7 ATS after a straight up loss at Cal. More telling may be WSU's 2-9 ATS record on real grass since 1996. I really feel Cal is the classier team here and is heading in a much more positive direction right now. With two young teams, and distinct weather differences between the two schools, playing at home is even more valuable than usual. The home team is 10-2 ATS in this series! Bears faithful were talking about reaching a bowl game at the beginning of the year and head coach Holmoe (who I have always liked), in his fourth year here, is starting to get some heat. Cal needs a big win badly here in their Pac-10 opener. They will get it. California  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Not a pretty week for us, our first losing week of the season.  Illinois and Minnesota both showed extreme form reversals.  It's our job to foresee these types of things, and we missed badly on this one.  California could not overcome four critical punting errors (blocked punt, bad snap, muffed punt, and a bad call on a running into the kicker) resulting in 10 WSU points, extra possessions, and field position.  There were also a series of controversial calls that gave WSU a touchdown and took away a touchdown and a safety from Cal.  We are still a solid 66.6% for the year and we'll look to improve on that next week.