Friday September 22 Sheet

UCLA at Oregon (-3.5) - 12:30pm Pacific
Head coach Mike Belloti has done an incredible job here with the Ducks. He has to be considered one of the best young coaches in the game, but probably does not get his due recognition being in the pacific northwest. In his 5 years here, the Ducks have had 5 straight winning seasons, are 39-20 overall, have been to 4 bowl games, and have won more games than any other Pac-10 team during the span! All unprecedented numbers for the school. Oregon won 6 straight games to end the season last year including a bowl win over a very good Minnesota team from the Big 10. This years team only returned 9 starters but coaches say that they rotated personnel so much last year that there is more than enough experience. Junior QB Joey Harrington was 4-0 as a starter last year and drove the team to winning 4th quarter drives in two other games as well. He has won the starting job from the get go this year and is one of the most solid QB's you will see in the nation. The offensive line returns three starters and two others with starting experience. Two of the top three receivers return and senior Marshaun Tucker already appears to have emerged as a go to guy. At running back JC sensation Maurice Morris (6.2 yard per carry average) has looked fantastic so far. Morris was rated by several publications as the #1 JC recruit in the nation last year! He is a 2 time JC All-American and holds records for yardage, carries, and all-purpose yards. This offense scored 34.2 points per game last year and as averaged 35+ points per game the past 4 years. Do not expect anything different this year. On defense the Ducks brought back defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti last year who originally was the architect of the "Gang Green" defense that led them to the Rose Bowl in 1994. More notably though, Aliotti was fired by UCLA before last year! (Interesting subplot) The defense really came on at the end of last year as they picked up on the new schemes. They return only 4 starters, but each one at a key position. Defensive end Saul Patu (1st team Pac-10 last year), MLB Matt Smith (2nd team Pac-10) last year, and both starting cornerbacks all are back. This defense has performed very well this year allowing just 15.6 points per game despite facing three good offenses. Last week vs Idaho, they completely shut down the high flying Vandal pass attack and star QB John Welsh. They looked inspired and were seemingly making hard hits on every play. Against Wisconsin two weeks ago, they were burned by three big plays (runs for 59, 75, and 83 yards) that accounted for 60% of the Badgers total yards and all 21 of their offensive points (the other 6 came from a blocked punt that was returned for a TD). Oregon held Wisconsin to just 11 first downs and outgained them 454 to 367. This is despite 3 Ducks turnovers vs the Badgers 1. Oregon really did outplay Wisconsin and should have beaten them. The Ducks dominated the first half (198-46 yard advantage, held Wisconsin to 1.7 yards per play, 0/6 3rd down conversions), had a first and goal at the 3 and dropped two passes in the end zone, and ended up with just a 6-0 lead at halftime. They continually dropped passes throughout the game and in the end could not overcome the above mentioned big plays and blocked punt. Nonetheless, I believe this performance (outplaying a top 5 team on the road) is even more impressive than what the Bruins have accomplished thus far. UCLA has beaten two top 5 teams, and we give them credit for it. However, upon further review, Alabama cannot seem to get out of their own way, Michigan had to play with an inexperienced back up QB (1 for 10 in 2nd half), and both games were at home and played on natural grass. Now an emotionally and physically drained UCLA team must go on the road for the first time to play an excellent Oregon team. The Bruins will be without two starters this week, fullback Matt Stanley, and more notably starting DE Kenyon Coleman. Coleman was called "the teams best player" by head coach Toledo this week and is at least the teams best defensive lineman and leader of the front 7. He will be missed. Additionally, their second best defensive lineman Ken Kocher has battled an ankle injury all season and limped off the field vs Michigan. UCLA Sophomore QB Ryan McCann (still playing with a hip pointer) will be making his very first start in a hostile environment and the Bruins did not win a single road game in all of last year. Indeed, a hostile environment it will be, as the Ducks are riding a 16 game home win streak and ESPN's gameday crew will broadcast live for the first time ever from Autzen stadium. UCLA has won four straight in this series, with the last two meetings played at the Rose Bowl. In 1998, it was decided by a field goal in overtime, and last year an Oregon receiver was tackled at the 1 yard line on the last play of the game. Adding fuel to the revenge factor are a long list of current UCLA players who were either heavily recruited by Oregon or committed verbally to the Ducks only to end at up with the Bruins and as always there are several Oregon players who felt rejected by the Southern California schools. I really feel that in order for UCLA to win this game they would have to play even better than they have in their two big home wins over Michigan and Alabama. That just isn't going to happen. Oregon is 11-5 ATS as a home favorite the last 4 years, including 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 or less. UCLA meanwhile is a dismal 3-10 ATS on artificial turf since 1993! Under Toldeo they are 3-6 ATS as a road dog. We look for the Ducks to cruise to a convincing win here. Oregon  2 UNITS

Tulane (+1) at SMU - 4:00pm Pacific
We have been looking to play Tulane since the start of the season but did not like their first two matchups (at Ole Miss & at East Carolina). It is hard not to like their matchup this week. Strangely enough the Green Wave are getting points here after a young & rebuilding Tulane team playing in just their second game of the season smothered SMU 53-19 last year. They return a whopping 19 starters from that same team, including all 11 starters on defense and are vastly improved! Tulane has showed plenty of promise in their first two games. In week one at Ole Miss they actually led the game 17-14 with the ball midway through the third quarter before an interception runback (after a horrible pass interference no call) triggered a string of big plays and a 35 point Ole Miss onslaught ending in a misleading 49-20 final score. Last week at East Carolina, Tulane was only outgained 505-487 for the game and again led midway through the 3rd quarter. A key fumble and a botched punt snap along with another string of big plays ended in a 37-17 ECU win. Tulane has looked sharp on both sides of the ball thus far. On offense they have two excellent QB's. Starter Patrick Ramsey threw for 3,410 yards last year and looked good in week one before leaving with a shoulder injury. Backup J.P. Losman originally signed at UCLA as the #6 rated high school QB in the country three years ago! He is a bit more mobile and reportedly led some impressive drives vs ECU. Losman got the start last week because of Ramsey's injury. Ramsey will be back as the starter this week, but expect both talented QB's to see action. Tulane appears to have a more balanced attack this year due in part to the emergence of freshman RB Mewelde Moore who insiders expect to be a longtime future star here. The Green Wave receiving corps is top notch and their spread offense is sure to give SMU trouble again. The Mustangs are decimated by injuries on defense right now. They are starting three freshman and a sophomore in their secondary and it showed last week in their 41-0 loss to NC State. Starting LB BJ Williams has been out all year with a broken leg. Starting defensive tackle Lute Croy will miss his second straight game with a knee injury. Adding to Croy's injury on the defensive front is starting end Markus Pratt, who is questionable with a sprained shoulder. Adding to their secondary woes, starting free safety Leroy Price is doubtful with a back injury. This defense is already without 4 of their top 5 tacklers from last year. As we stated in last weeks analysis SMU head coach Mike Cavan has produced a worse record in each of his last two years here and is already 1-2 this year after back to back dismal performances vs UTEP and NC State. Their offense has been almost nonexistent vs quality opponents in recent years. They seemingly never had a chance vs the NC State defense last week that shut them out. Meanwhile, the Tulane defense has performed deceptively well. The Green Wave defense has been the victim of a -3 turnover ratio and 9 big plays that alone have accounted for 40% of total yardage given up in the first two games. Coaches have been pleased with the overall play and leadership and the unit is reportedly coming together. Expect them to do well this week. SMU is a dismal 2-9 ATS as a home favorite since 1992. Tulane will be playing by far their easiest opponent on both sides of the ball this week. After third quarter leads and eventual second half collapses in their first two games, they will finish the job and avoid an 0-3 start Saturday. Green Wave get the win. Tulane  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Oregon dominated both early and late and pulled away for a 29-10 win.  The Ducks defense was instrumental in the victory as they shutdown UCLA's running game.  Tulane scored 19 points in the first quarter and never looked back as they looked sharp on both sides of the ball.  29-17 was the final.  We have not put together 5 straight winning weeks to start the season!  Overall we are now 8-2 (80%) and +7.8 UNITS.