Friday September 15 Sheet

Michigan State at Missouri (+10) - 4:00pm Pacific
Missouri lost 62-9 last week at Clemson but watching the game tape revealed a far different story than what the final score indicates. After a bad Missouri punt snap inside their own 5 yard line helped to build a 14-0 Clemson lead, Missouri rebounded and drove for a touchdown (missed extra point) and were driving again inside the Clemson 25 with under 5 minutes to play in the first half. A pass was dropped in the end zone and then another dropped at the one yard line and Mizzou settled for a field goal and trailed only 14-9 at the time. Clemson then scored 14 points in the final 2:30 of the 2nd quarter and ran back an interception on the second play of the 2nd half to take a 35-9 lead and the rest was history. Things only got worse from there as Missouri was uncomfortable in catch up mode. When it was all said and done, Missouri mistakes included 2 special teams errors that resulted in touchdowns in addition to SIX turnovers! It should be noted that Clemson has looked awesome all season and are a legitimate top 10 team. Missouri simply could not match up with Clemson's speed and never could adapt to their no huddle fast break offense. They clearly will match up much better this week vs a slower and more run oriented Michigan State team. We have lots of respect for Mizzou head coach Larry Smith. He has done super jobs at Tulane, Arizona, and USC in the past and has done a fine job turning around the Missouri program. He clearly does not get the recognition he deserves. Last year was a rebuilding year and the team struggled to a 4-7 record, but 14 starters return this year including QB Kirk Farmer who was 3-1 as a starter last year before suffering a broken leg and missing the rest of season. Despite all the miscues, Farmer looked good last week and his stats would be much better if not for several dropped passes. He is mobile and can throw very well on the run. Missouri has a new offense this year and they are throwing a lot more than they have in the past. One of the reasons is due to great depth at WR this year. They also have a huge offensive line with a few emerging running backs that gobbled up good yardage in the early going at Clemson. The Missouri defense was a victim of a -9 turnover ratio last year and despite giving up similar yardage per game as in 98 their points allowed per game jumped from 19.7 to 33.7! They have been strong against the run for two straight years and were strong against the run vs Clemson last week. They are led by 1st team All-American DE Justin Smith who simply takes away one side of the field on most plays. This unit should at least hold its own come Saturday. Michigan State hardly looked imposing in their 34-24 opening win vs a rebuilding Marshall team last week. The game was close throughout until turnovers and fortunate plays allowed Mich State to pull away late. The MSU offensive line was able to wear down an undersized Marshall front 7 as Spartan back T.J. Duckett ran for 185 of his 216 yards in the 2nd half. Don't expect that to happen this week, as insiders say the Tigers front 7 is as big and deep as it has been in years. Michigan State starting QB Van Dyke left the game early with a bruised thumb and was downgraded to "questionable" yesterday, but could not grip a football on Monday. His backup Jeff Smoker is a true freshman and played okay but neither QB has started a collegiate game on the road. Maybe more importantly the Spartans have lost their outstanding WR tandem of Plaxico Burress (1st round pick) and Gari Scott (4th round pick) from last year. On defense, the losses were even heavier as all three starting defensive lineman were seniors last year and are gone including Robaire Smith (1st team Big 10, 5th round pick), at LB they lost Julian Peterson (15 tackles for loss + 15 sacks last year, 1st round pick), in the secondary they lost leading tackler SS Aran Morris (5th round pick) and their best cover corner Amp Campbell (1st team Big 10, 26 pass break ups!). All in all, 8 of the 11 MSU starters lost from last year received postseason honors or were drafted in the top 5 rounds of the NFL draft! Making things even worse is an injury to senior starting MLB T.J. Turner (shoulder) last week that will force him to miss at least this game. Turner is called their "most versatile defender" and is the teams leading returner in both interceptions and tackles for loss. He will be missed. Clearly this is not the same Nick Saban (left for LSU) coached 10-2 team of last year. This will be the first career road game for new Spartan coach Bobby Williams. Meanwhile, Mizzou coach Larry Smith is a super impressive 23-11 ATS coming off a straight up loss! They are also 26-16-1 ATS last 43 played on grass. The Tigers have reportedly looked good in practice this week and are eager to show what they can do. Crowd will be large as usual and all fans have been encouraged to wear gold for "Gold Rush Day" in support of the Tigers. We give Missouri a great shot to win this outright and getting double digits at home is an outstanding value. Missouri  2 UNITS

Maryland (+10) at West Virginia - 9:00am Pacific
It is hard to believe that Maryland is getting points here after dominating West Virginia 33-0 last year and returns 13 starters to WVU's 11. Terps head coach Ron Vanderlinden enters his fourth year here and has done a good job improving the teams record (2-9, 3-8, 5-6) each and every season. Last year they came so close to a winning season but fell just short in the final game vs Virginia. This year expectations are high as the biggest crowd in five years showed up for the season opener vs Temple last week. Maryland appeared very sluggish (just as they did last year vs the Owls) as starting QB McCall did not start due to a midweek rules violation and once he got in was not his usual self. Heisman candidate RB LaMont Jordan (nations leading active rusher, 2 TD's last week) also missed the first series due to having to take an extra class to become eligible and missed some practice time. Poor offensive line play, blamed on injuries throughout fall camp, also played a roll. To top it off, Maryland used very conservative "vanilla" play calling on both sides of the ball. They still managed a 17-10 victory over an improved Temple squad that had a game under their belt and were playing with confidence coming off a big win. Maryland also did lose 3 fumbles or the margin would probably have been higher. Insiders are expecting marked improvement in almost every category this week. The offense will be opened up more and both QB McCall and RB Jordan will start. The offensive line does have three starters returning from last years #12 rushing team in the country and #1 sacks allowed unit in the ACC so they should be fine. They do have some injuries at WR but that has been called their deepest position on the team so it should not be a problem. The Terps also have the #1 punter in the nation right now (Brooks Bernard) who had an 85 yarder last week! With 6 QB sacks and only 10 points allowed, the Maryland defense had a solid opening game. The defensive line was reportedly very active. The LB corps is one of the finest in the country and accounted for 325 tackles between the 3 starters last year! These guys were great against the run last year yielding just 125 yards per game. The secondary gave up a lot of yardage last week due largely in part that Temple was playing catch up most of the way. They do have two good returning safeties and young, but solid talent at the corners, so they should show considerable improvement with a game under their belts. West Virginia had everything go their own way vs Boston College in their season opener two weeks ago. BC lost defensive lineman Garay to injury in the first series of the game. He is considered by coaches to be their best defensive player, a key run stopper, and a team leader. BC shot themselves in the foot throughout the game with 5 turnovers while WVU had none. BC still only trailed by 3 with the ball in the 4th quarter before throwing two interception runbacks to break the game open, ending with a misleading 34-14 final score. New Mountaineer QB Brad Lewis had a couple of long pass plays early on, but overall was shaky and completed just 7 of 19 passes. WVU ran for 189 yards only because they were fortunate to afford 53 carries for a sub par 3.6 yard per carry average. It is very doubtful they will have such good fortunes this week. WVU has performed well off BYE weeks and they do have considerable revenge motivation from last years meeting coming into this, but it is clearly not enough to justify giving double digits in this spot. They simply are not good enough! The underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 meetings of this rivalry. Terps are a solid 8-5-2 ATS on the road under Vanderlinden and 2-1 ATS on turf. Terps strong run defense will be key and possibility of low scoring game makes +10 that much more valuable. Take the points. Maryland  1 UNIT

SMU at NC State (-9) - 4:00pm Pacific
This year NC State has brought in a new head coach, Chuck Amato, a former Wolfpack player and more recently defensive assistant at Florida State. The first thing Amato did was visit his top QB recruit Phillip Rivers to make sure he was staying with NC State despite the coaching change. The second thing Amato did was hire the highest paid assistant coaching staff in the country, led by offensive coordinator Norm Chow (formerly at BYU for 20 years) and so far both moves have paid huge dividends. The Wolfpack are 2-0, Chow has the offense rolling, and true freshman QB Phillip Rivers simply leads the nation in total offense right now! Rivers had some dazzling throws with incredible accuracy in last weeks come from behind win at Indiana. It was truly a gutsy performance, but he did not do it alone. Rivers is surrounded by outstanding skill position players. RB Ray Robinson (finally healthy again, 134 total yards last week) and WR Koren Robinson (7 catches, 112 yards last week) have both won ACC rookie of the year awards the last two seasons and are superb. Sophomore Willie Wright (9 catches, 92 yards last week) has emerged as a force at tight end. Meanwhile, the young but very talented NC State defense has been somewhat of a disappointment so far. Big things were expected from this unit as they return 8 starters (10 of top 12 tacklers) and were solid last year. They have 4 great LB's and a great FS in Brian Williams who led the team in tackles with 132 last year. After a poor performance in a rainstorm vs Arkansas State they vowed to show improvement vs Indiana last week but disappointed again giving up 38 points. However, Indiana is going to score a lot of points on everyone this year. The defense will get one more chance to redeem themselves this week before the start of conference play and find themselves an easy opponent here. Amato is a defensive coach himself, so expect them to be fired up and ready. They will get back emotional leader Nate Goodson on the defensive line this week as he was finally cleared to play after a 2 game suspension, which will help. SMU fell on their face last week in their WAC conference opener at UTEP. A very iffy UTEP team opened up a 20-0 lead and never looked back winning 37-20. SMU's offense has averaged under 20 points per game the last two years and this year have their third new offensive coordinator in just four years. Head coach Mike Cavan is in his 4th season here and his team has finished with a worse record each of the three seasons so far (6-5, 5-7, 4-6). Cavan is now a dismal 2-9-1 ATS as a road dog. Making matters worse for the Mustangs is that they will be playing without starting nose guard (Lute Croy) and starting right guard (Thorton Chandler) this week. A Wolfpack sports website listed matchups by position for this game and the Wolfpack have significant height and weight advantages at EVERY single position! We look for the NC State offense to continue to impress while the defense finally bounces back and plays well. NC State simply outclasses SMU here. The Wolfpack get their first comfortable win under Amato. Give the points. NC State  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Missouri dominated the first half but only led 10-3 at halftime.  A fumble at their own 20 set up a Michigan State touchdown and changed the momentum of the game preventing an outright win, but the Tigers still fell well within the number, 13-10 was the final.  Maryland lost a heartbreaker!  The Terps appeared to score the go ahead touchdown on both and 3rd and 4th down but were not awarded the score. WVU took over and drove 99 yards for the covering touchdown in the final minutes, 30-17 was the final.  NC State blew out SMU 41-0.  So close to a perfect week, but we'll take it anyway.  For the season we are now 6-2 (75%) and +4.8 UNITS.