September 29, 2001 Sheet

Memphis at Louisville (-10) - 11:00am Pacific
Louisville is a very dangerous team. They are coming off an embarrassing 34-10 loss on national television at Illinois and should be primed for big performance here. Do not let the final score of their last game fool you. Louisville only trailed 17-10 at halftime despite having a deflected interception returned for a touchdown in the 2nd quarter. The Cardinals had 5 turnovers in all, 13 penalties for 111 yards, lost starting RB TJ Patterson to injury in the first half, and lost their best pass rusher Michael Josiah to a questionable ejection also in the first half. They were also playing on artificial turf for the first time since 1999. Not to mention they were playing on the road vs a solid Big 10 contender in the Illini. Furthermore, Louisville was trying to defend the Illini pass attack without starting CB Josh Minkins or backup CB Chris Johnson in the lineup. Both will return this week. The Cardinals just barely missed opportunity after opportunity and only scored 10 points despite racking up 338 total yards. They are clearly a much better team than what this game indicates. 

Memphis finally got rid of head coach Rip Scherer, but I do not think they went far enough in their effort to find a new coach. They chose former Clemson head coach Tommy West who served as defensive coordinator for them last year. I never liked West much at Clemson and with less talent I do not care much for him here. The Tigers supposedly are installing some form of a "spread" offense, but I do not buy it for a minute. They just do not have the personnel to be effective. Starting QB Travis Anglin has always been a better runner than a passer and always will be. He has very little "pocket presence" and is always looking to tuck and run at the first sign of pressure. Their receivers are nothing to write home about either. Both starting QB Anglin (shoulder) and starting RB Brown (ankle) sustained minor injuries last week and are listed as probable but most likely will not be 100%. 

On defense Memphis had a top notch defensive coordinator in John Thompson during the 1999 season and they had an outstanding defense that gave up only 16.5ppg. Tommy West than took over the position last year and with several of the same players (8 starters back from 1999) and schemes had another good year in 2000 at 18.1ppg. This year however they lost the heart and soul of the defense with guys like LB Shakir (schools all-time leading tackler, 1st team CUSA), DB Stone (1st team CUSA), DB Bashir (1st team CUSA), and DL Bell (1st team CUSA) all graduated. These losses will be felt all year long, but even against the vaunted 1999 defense, the Cardinals put up 32 points!

Against South Florida last week, Memphis was outplayed and very fortunate to win. The Tigers scored 17 points in the first quarter but then did not score for the rest of the game. They managed only 51 yards of offense in the 2nd half and had to hold on for their lives to win 17-9. South Florida was playing without their top WR Rubin (turftoe, 144 receiving yards vs Pitt earlier in the year) for most of the game. In the 2nd half USF failed on a fake FG inside the 10, had a TD called back on a questionable block in the back call, fumbled at the Memphis 35, were stopped on downs at the Memphis 25, threw an interception that was returned to their own 20 yard line, and finally drove the length of the field only to run out of time at the Memphis 2 yard line. They still only lost 17-9! Now, South Florida did upset Pittsburgh this year, but they also lost to Northern Illinois and have only been playing football for three years. Memphis had some serious problems defending this team, how will they fare trying to defend Louisville?

The Cardinals offense is as explosive as any in the country. Junior QB Dave Ragone is a super talent and his receivers are outstanding. RB TJ Patterson will miss the game with injury but backup Tony Stallings was the starter last year and led the team in rushing so I do not expect there to be much of a drop-off. This offense will light the scoreboard up. On defense, the Cardinals will have their secondary back at full strength this week and a very motivated Michael Josiah back at defensive end. After defending Kentucky and Illinois last two times out they should be quite successfull here defending Memphis. Head coach John L. Smith has done a terrific job with this team. Cardinals are 17-5 SU at home since Smith took over in 1997. I look for the Louisville to quickly build a double digit lead and maintain it comfortably throughout the game. Cardinals were dropped from #22 to #47 in the polls after last weeks loss. They are not happy about it and today they get some respect back. Louisville  2 UNITS


North Carolina at NC State (-1.5) - 9:00am Pacific
In just a little over a year, NC State coach Chuck Amato has done an incredible job winning over the hearts of Wolfpack faithful and instilling a winning attitude in to this program. NC State is fresh off an 8-4 bowl winning season of a year ago and appear to have only gotten better this year. They could not have been much more impressive in their 35-14 seasoning opening romp over Indiana. They dominated that game from the start offensively, defensively, and on special teams. Last week they came out flat and rusty and turned in a lackluster performance against an inspired SMU team. It was parents day for the Mustangs and they were also looking to avenge a 41-0 loss to the Wolfpack last year. NC State did not pick up a first down until 8:30 left in the first half and we all know that is a farcry from their usual offensive output. However, the Wolfpack showed their class by stepping up their play when they had to and came from behind to win on the road convincingly in the end 26-17. They definitely showed signs of a team that knows how to win.

Their simply is not a better underclassman QB in the country than the Wolfpack's true sophomore Phillip Rivers. His size, strength, accuracy, and decision making are what most offensive coordinators only dream of. He can stand in the pocket until the last possible second and with his 6-5 height and quick release still make big plays. He is a coaches son and seems to always make the right reads and find open receivers. He is also tough, hard to bring down, and can even run for a first down when he has to. He has a great running back beside him in junior Ray Robinson. Junior WR Bryan Peterson and senior TE Willie Wright are two capable goto receivers and a trio of highly touted freshman receivers are improving with every week. Rumor has it that the Pack have only used different variations of 20 plays so far this year and that new offensive coordinator Marty Galbraith (OC who led Marshall to 35.6ppg and 12-0 record in 1999) has yet to show all of his cards. Few better times to show them than this week.

On defense, Chuck Amato made it a point to get the defensive line more physical this year and he brought in two JC transfers who earned starting spots and have upgraded the talent on the line. Players say this years unit is making more of a "push" up front. The Wolfpack boast perhaps the best LB in the country in Levar Fisher (led NCAA in tackles last year, 2nd team All American, ACC defensive player of the year) and he is surrounded by two three year starters in senior Brian Jamison and junior Dantonio Burnette. The secondary is also strong with stalwarts senior CB Brian Williams (3 year starter) and junior free safety Terrence Holt (brother of Torry, 2nd team ACC last year) who is turning into a fine player and is also very adept at blocking kicks. 

North Carolina is coming off one of their biggest wins in school history last week, a 41-9 victory over Florida State. No matter what anyone says, the Tar Heels were sky high after this win and will have to have some degree of a letdown this week. The only other two ACC teams to beat Florida State, NC State and Virginia, both did not cover the spread in their following game after beating the Seminoles. 

After reviewing the Florida State/UNC game tape I was astonished how poorly the Seminoles played and how well they gift wrapped this game for the Tar Heels. FSU's first 8 plays were runs and they went three and out on their first three possessions. They then fumbled in UNC territory on their 4th & 5th possessions. This in itself gave UNC hope. FSU led 9-7 at the half and held a 190-78 total yardage edge. UNC started the 2nd half with a 52 yard touchdown pass after a FSU defender fell down and left a receiver about 10 yards wide open. A shanked punt and an interception set up UNC for two field goals and they found themselves with a 20-9 lead. FSU then went to a true freshman backup QB who looked lost out there as by this time UNC had all of the momentum. UNC then connected on a 53 touchdown pass after the FSU secondary had a miscommunication and left a receiver at least 20 yards wide open. FSU ended up with 5 turnovers in all which aided in UNC tacking on two more touchdowns to end the game. 

Coming into the FSU game, the UNC offense had really struggled. They scored 27 points vs Oklahoma but 14 came on interception and punt returns and the final 13 was all in the 4th quarter. They managed 7 points vs Maryland which all came on a 77 yard run on the first offensive series. They scored 14 first half points vs Texas which were aided by field position set up by turnovers. They were held scoreless in the 2nd half vs the Longhorns including -5 yards in the decisive 3rd quarter. Despite putting up 41 points on the Seminoles, the offense still did not have very good numbers. They ran 41 times for just 69 yards and completed just 14 of 30 passes for 232 yards. Over 100 of those yards came on the two undefended fortunate plays. The Heels are using a platoon system at QB with senior Ronald Curry (1 td, 4 ints) and freshman Darian Durant (4 td, 5 ints) and neither has been able to seperate himself from the other. Part of the problem is that the offensive line is breaking in four new starters this year. 

The NC State offensive line is looking for a good showing as they go up against their former OL coach and the guy who recruited most of them in Robbie Caldwell who is now an assistant at UNC. Insiders report that NCSU head coach Chuck Amato puts a huge emphasis on rivalry games and will be pulling out all the stops to get a win here. Count on the Wolfpack being ready. Because of the 1999 game being played in Charlotte, UNC has not visited Carter Finley Stadium since 1997. The Wolfpack have won 18 of 21 games here at home and the fans will definitely be up for this one. If this game were played last week you would probably have to play a teaser to get NC State at -1.5. Wolfpack keep winning. NC State  1 UNIT


UCLA (-3) at Oregon State - 12:30pm Pacific
After recent years of great recruiting classes, coaching changes, injury problems and the like, UCLA this year has finally molded together a complete team. The Bruin defense that has received so much criticism in recent years has not only improved but is now a team strength. They have only given up 13.3ppg in first three games despite playing two top 25 teams and two out of three games on the road. Against #21 Ohio State last week, UCLA did not allow any offensive points. Ohio State scored six points off a blocked punt and nothing more. This is despite recovering four fumbles all in UCLA territory, two of which were inside the 15. UCLA limited Ohio State to an amazing 1-for-15 on 3rd down conversions. The return of top defensive lineman Kenyon Coleman (missed last 8 games with injury last year) obviously has given the defense a lift, but a now fully healthy senior LB Robert Thomas and Junior CB Ricky Manning (1st team Pac-10 last year) are also stars. This defense has talent and is flat out getting it done.

On offense, UCLA QB Cory Paus is in his third year as a starter and has been very effective. He is making good decisions and playing mistake free football with 0 interceptions through three games. He occasionally will make an exceptional play but has not been trying to do too much as he sometimes did in recent years. Aside from added experience and maturity Paus is getting a big lift from senior RB DeShaun Foster who simply may be the best running back in the country. Foster is having a breakout season averaging 118.3 yards per game. This offense is now truly balanced with both a potent running and passing attack. You can always count on Bob Toledo for some creative play calling which makes this unit even more dangerous.

Oregon State was a senior dominated team last year that lost 24 letterman (2nd most in Pac-10). On their way to an 11-1 record they had a +18 turnover margin. Coming into this season Dennis Erickson was 16-4 ATS in his two years at OSU. Obviously, this team has some losing to do and they are already 0-2 ATS this year. They were ambushed at Fresno State 44-24 in their season opener and then were not impressive at all beating a very bad New Mexico State team 27-22 back on September 8th. This week it was announced that senior strong safety Calvin Carlyle will be lost for the year due to injury. Carlyle was a three year starter and an important emotional leader to the point that he would often go into the OFFENSIVE huddle just to try to rally the team. He will be missed in their secondary. What really is really missing from this Oregon State team in my opinion is a big play receiver. The Beavers lost all four of their top receivers from last year who accounted for 2,644 or 95% of last years receiving yards. So far this year no one has really stepped up. Furthermore, OSU has not played since September 8th! That will have to have an effect on them, no matter how hard they have practiced. It is just too difficult to duplicate live real game speed and situations in practice. 

Lastly, I feel UCLA has the intangibles to succeed this year. They have already won twice on the road. They have already been successful this year on artificial turf. They experienced this exact scenario last year as they were 3-0 and visiting Oregon. That memory of last year should prove to be invaluable and this time around they have a more experienced QB, a much stronger defense, and are healthy. UCLA also will have revenge on their minds as they have lost two straight to Oregon State including an embarrassing 55-7 thrashing the last time they visited Corvallis in 1999. This could finally be UCLA's year. Bruins go to 4-0. UCLA  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Louisville lost a fumble on their second play of the game leading to an early Memphis touchdown and 7-0 lead.  The Cardinals came back with 24 straight points and were in control through out.  The teams traded touchdowns in the final minutes in a wild finish.  38-21 final.  NC State also lost a fumble early leading to a UNC touchdown.  It was an uphill battle from then on as the NC State offense appeared out of sync throughout and they lose 17-9.  The UCLA defense was again fantastic as the Bruins dominated OSU 38-7.  Very impressive win.