September 8, 2001 Sheet

Kansas State at USC (+3) - 3:30pm Pacific 
After two years of heartache, this USC team is hungry as can be. Last year they started out 3-0 and were ranked #8 in the nation before losing an unthinkable 5 straight games finishing the year 5-6. Problems were everywhere. 

They lost their secondary star Antuan Simmons prior to the start of the season (stomach tumor) and then lost starting CB Kris Richards with a broken leg 5 games in. At one point they were starting 4 sophomores in the secondary which led to some torching by opposing pass happy Pac-10 offenses. This year, Simmons & Richards are back and the Trojans boast one of the deepest and most talented secondariness in the country.

The Trojans continually shot themselves in the foot last year with key penalties, special teams miscues, defensive breakdowns on 3rd and long, and costly turnovers. USC ranked #104 in special teams by one publication, and had an unbelievable -19 turnover ratio which was worst in the country! Fiery assistant coach Kennedy Pola has taken over special teams and has been given his choice of starters to fill out his lineups. The Trojans also brought in a 2nd team JC All-American place kicker David Davis who went 3-for-3 on extra points in his debut last week. Special teams have a renewed focus and will fare much better this year. 

The Trojans have a long awaited new head coach in Pete Carroll who doubles as defensive coordinator so you know the defense will be solid. I mentioned the secondary returnees above and 6 starters in all are back on defense as well as many top reserves. They only allowed 10 points in first game vs a potent SJSU team that returned 9 offensive starters and scored 31.2ppg last year including 24 vs these same Trojans. Carroll also brought in highly touted offensive coordinator Norm Chow to run the offense. Chow was the mastermind behind the BYU offense for 20+ years tutoring the likes of Steve Young, Jim McMahon, Ty Detmer, and a host of others. He is a three time NCAA assistant coach of the year. Last year he took an NC State offense that returned just 4 starters from 20.3ppg in 1999 to 31.6ppg in 2000 ranking #15 in the country in total offense all with a true freshman QB! 

This year Chow inherits an offense with 8 returning starters, a 4th year junior QB in Carson Palmer (21-for-28 in first game), and is loaded with talent. RB Sultan McCullough (fastest player ever at USC) looked spectacular last week running for 167 yards and 3 touchdowns. WR Kareem Kelly (led team last year), JC all-American transfer Grant Mattos (5 catches, 75 yards last week), and speedy TE Kori Dickerson (converted linebacker) give USC plenty of throwing options even without projected starting WR Marcell Almond (status uncertain pending investigation, could still play). Norm Chow is known for a very balanced attack and proved it in week one calling 28 pass plays and 33 run plays. The offense only scored 21 points in game one, but in my opinion were clearly under wraps. One Trojan insider estimated that only 10% of the playbook was used in game one. 

Kansas State lost 27 seniors from last years team and return just 8 starters. In their last 4 season openers they have been favored by -36, NL (66-0), -34, and -29. I could not find the last time they played a non-conference regular season game and were not favored by double digits. KSU is not nearly as effective on the road as they are at home. They are only 6-8-1 ATS on the road compared to 12-5 ATS at home since 1998. Making the road trip to Los Angeles will be a whole new experience for them. They only play 2-3 times a year on real grass and are just 3-5-1 ATS on grass compared to 18-8 ATS on turf since 1998. They will be trying to replace their starting QB, three of top four receivers, 4 of top 5 tacklers from last year, and 3 excellent defensive backs (2 were all conference and NFL draftees). They also recently lost starting right tackle Thomas Barnett, a senior and 3 year starter (honorable mention Big 10 last year), to an undisclosed injury. Winning here is asking an awful lot from the Wildcats in their season opener. 

The Pete Carroll era is off to a good start at USC and this is a huge game for the program. Last year some players described the team as selfish but this year has been called "night and day" as everyone has a new positive attitude. The offense cheers the defense and the defense cheers the offense. Fans and players are excited. Carroll is known as a players coach and although he may have been too nice in the NFL, he could be a perfect fit here. The SJSU win last week was an ideal tune-up and confidence builder for the Trojans. They have what it takes to win this outright. Take the points. USC  1 UNIT


Idaho at Arizona (-19) - 7:00pm Pacific
In a loaded Pac-10 conference Arizona appears to be a forgotten team right now. The Wildcats return 13 starters from a team that started 5-1 last year before a heartbreaking three game span (at Oregon, vs UCLA, at Washington) in which they lost all three games by a combined 10 points. They then went on to lose their last two games and not even make a bowl game ultimately resulting in the resignation of long time coach Dick Tomey. Only 12 lettermen depart (fewest in Pac-10) from last years better than looked team. 

In comes former Texas head coach and ESPN analyst John Mackovic to take over. Mackovic hired defensive coordinator Larry MacDuff who was the architect of the original desert swarm or "double eagle flex" defense from 1987-1996 here at Arizona before going to the NFL. This is a defense that ranked 8th nationally vs the run last year and should only be better this year. Converted fullback Lance Briggs "of steel" was an instant star in his first season at LB last year ranking 2nd in the Pac-10 with 113 tackles including 10 for losses. The defensive line is deep with 7 players returning with starting experience. The secondary has a real star in true sophomore Michael Jolivette who had 14 pass breakups and 5 int's last year as a true freshman. This unit held San Diego State to only 201 total yards and just 10 points in game one, all of which came in the 1st quarter. The only touchdown came on a 2 yard drive following a botched punt snap and SDSU is no slouch as they returned 10 starters on offense!

On offense Zona is breaking in a new starting QB in junior Jason Johnson. The offense appeared rattled the first few series but then settled in nicely. Despite trailing 10-0 out of the gate and on the road, Johnson kept his composure and led the team on some nice drives. The junior finished 21-of-32 for 176 yards in his starting debut. I was really impressed by this guy, he has winner written all over him and will only get better as the season goes on. Sophomore RB Clarence Farmer (21 carries, 90 yards last game) had a great preseason and looked solid in game one. He is a load to bring down and is poised for a big year as the featured back. Junior WR Bobby Wade (5 catches, 44 yards last game) was a bit of a disappointment last year but now looks more like the goto receiver everyone thought he would be. The Wildcat offensive line was decimated by injuries last year, 2 starters missed almost the entire season and a third starter missed 5 games, furthermore not a single player was able to start every game. This year the line is very deep and a team strength. 

Idaho is coming off a game vs Washington State last week in which they were outscored 36-7 and outgained 544 to 146. Ouch. One local Idaho paper had this to say, "At least the Vandals were consistent, they were bad offensively, bad defensively, and bad on special teams." Idaho lost 20 lettermen from last year and only bring back 33 compared to Arizona's 47. The team only returns 10 starters in all from last year and lost four three year starters on their offensive line. They were not very good to begin with last year as they finished just 5-6 and gave up 34.3ppg despite a schedule that included Montana, Montana State, Arkansas State, Utah State, and North Texas. In similar spots last year they lost 44-20 to Washington and 42-13 to Oregon (0-2 ATS). Who knows how much worse this team is from last year.

Wildcats will be up for this game as it is their home opener and home debut for new head coach Mackovic. Former coach Tomey was horrible as a home favorite here going just 11-23 ATS since 94 and often did not like to run the score up, but look for Mackovic to go for a big win and try to instill a killer instinct with his new team. It was rumored in the preseason that Arizona was slow to grasp their new offense, yet they were still able to show flashes of greatness in week one. They only won 23-10 but it could have easily been a blow out. With that game under their belt and 9 days in-between to prepare for this they should be set to go. Also, with a BYE week on tap, Arizona has no reason to hold back. Look for them to make a statment here. Idaho is no match. Give the points. Arizona  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Two very tough losses this week.  USC missed an extra point and a 42 yard field goal and missed the cover by a point.  They appeared to be on a game winning drive until QB Carson Palmer fumbled at the KSU 25 yard line with 3:00 left.  Arizona led 29-0 in the 4th quarter and 36-7 with 10:00 left in the game before completing folding.  They were playing 2nd & 3rd stringers.  Did not make much sense.  Looking forward to next week to get back on the winning track.