September 1, 2001 Sheet

Illinois (+3) at California - 12:30pm Pacific
This will be a homecoming of sort for Illinois head coach Ron Turner as he both played and coached for many years in the Bay Area. This is a huge game for both programs, but clearly Ron Turner (0-11 in 1997, 16-18 since, bowl game win in 1999) has done more in his four years at Illinois than Tom Holmoe (15-29 straight up, no winning seasons) has done in his four years at Cal. 

Last year Illinois was 3-0 and had a double digit lead on Michigan until an unlikely comeback in the 4th quarter that was aided by not one but two blown fumble calls in favor of the Wolverines. That along with injuries and a terrible run defense sent the Illini spiraling to a disappointing 5-6 finish. 

This year Turner brings in highly regarded defensive coordinator in Mike Cassidy from Oklahoma State who's claim to fame last year was holding the national champion Sooners to a season low 12 points. He inherits an excellent secondary which should allow him to quickly install his aggressive, crowd the line of scrimmage schemes. Expect the run defense to improve dramatically. 

Last year the Illinois offense dropped to 26.7ppg from 32.3ppg in 99, but expect that number to rise above 30 again this year. QB Kurt Kittner is back as a senior and poised for a big year. Last year he was without his best WR Brandon Lloyd (broke freshman receiving record in 1999) who missed the entire season due to injury. He is back and better than ever. Turner on his return "It makes all the difference in the world." 6-5 junior Walter Young was bothered by injuries last year but has won the opposite starting receiver spot and is a HUGE target. Last years leading receiver Greg Lewis is also back but not even starting this year just to give an idea of the talent upgrade. The offensive line returns three very good starters and will be joined by sophomore Aaron Hodges who is being touted as all conference material. RB's Antonio Harris (power) and Rocky Harvey (speed) provide a solid 1-2 punch. This offense uses multiple formations, is very balanced, and will be potent!

In last years meeting Illinois was a 14 point favorite and led a low scoring game throughout before escaping with a 2 point win as Cal failed a 2-point conversion in the final minute. It was Kittner's worst game of his career and he ended up leaving mid way through the 3rd quarter with an injury and did not return. He will be looking to make amends. What really kept the game close was the punting of Cal all-American Nick Harris who pinned Illinois inside their own 15 yard line 9 times in the game! This forced Illinois into some very conservative play calling and clearly hurt them. Luckily, Harris has graduated! In hindsight Illinois also had their minds on their following weeks game vs Michigan on ESPN which had to lessen their intensity. 

Cal went and hired offensive coordinator Al Borges who was recently at UCLA. Borges has impressive credentials, but Cal did not take him away from UCLA, he was let go by the Bruins after a disappointing season. He is Cal's third offensive coordinator in five years and the players will have to learn yet another system. We have already been reminded from early season games that the defenses are ahead of the offenses this time of year and that should be no different in this case. On defense Cal returns 8 starters but the three losses were significant in DE Andre Carter (1st team all-American), NT Jacob Waasdorp (3 year all-conference performer), and CB Chidi Iwuoma who was by far their best cover man. Those are some big shoes to fill.

Illinois has a pretty favorable schedule this year and could be a surprise team in the Big 10. They are getting very little attention but are capable of a big year with an offense at full strength led by senior QB Kittner and a revamped defense under new coordinator Cassidy. Kittner won on the road at Michigan and Ohio State in 1999 so he can win anywhere. Under Holmoe, Cal is just 9-13 straight up at home, 2-6 ATS as a home favorite, and 2-9 ATS as a favorite of any kind. Additionally, Illinois is 8-4 ATS on real grass under Turner. Look for a solid outright win from the Illini here. Illinois  1 UNIT


Boise State at South Carolina (-18.5) - 4:00pm Pacific
The Gamecocks had an incredible turnaround last year after going 0-11 in 1999 they finished last season 8-4 winning a New Years Day bowl game over Ohio State in convincing fashion. Their year could have been even better if not for two narrow losses to Tennessee and Clemson by a combined 5 points. Remarkably, they return 17 starters and almost every key components from last years team. 

On offense, South Carolina returns 9 starters including senior QB Phil Petty who is on the preseason list of 20 QB's nominated for the Johnny Unitas award. The top 4 rushers from last year are back including Derek Watson (1066 yards, 5.7ypc!). Three of the top four receivers return as well. The offensive line has nine players with starting experience and is projected to be one of the best lines in the SEC this year. Two of the four returning OL starters were all conference last year. Skip Holtz is back as offensive coordinator and this unit should better last years output. 

On defense, South Carolina returns 8 starters from the SEC's #1 rated unit last year as they allowed just 15.1ppg (6th best in the country). LB Kalimba Edwards and CB Sheldon Brown were both 3rd team all-Americans last year and are back for their senior seasons. Defensive coordinator Charlie Strong is doing a terrific job on this side of the ball and more good things should be expected. 

Boise State is coming off a 10-2 season and second straight Humanitarian Bowl victory. They put up 44.3ppg last year! However, they lost head coach Dirk Koetter to Arizona State along with six assistants, which has to take a toll. But that loss is insignificant compared to the loss of Mr everything QB Bart Hendricks who was Big West player of the year, broke 10 school records, had a 170.6 QB rating, threw for 3,611 yards, and led the nation in touchdown passes all last season. Unfortunately for the Bronco's he has graduated. 

On defense, Boise State only returns three starters! This is from a unit that gave up 38 points to Arkansas and 42 points to Washington State (their only two division 1 non-conference opponents) last season. They were fortunate to have a +10 turnover ratio last year, but with an inexperienced QB, this year probably will end up in the minus column. That could be critical.

The current weather forecast calls for a 60% chance of rain/thunderstorms with possibility of heavy showers. This would play right into the hands of South Carolina who clearly has a size advantage in the trenches and the rain would also give Boise State a difficult time executing their pass happy offense. 

Lou Holtz is a genuine motivator and has convinced his team that they cannot take any opponent lightly. Excitement may be at an all time high in South Carolina as they set a record this year for season ticket sales with over 56,000. Every game this year is completely sold out. The Gamecocks have covered 13 of 16 games ATS, are 5-1 ATS as a favorite, and 8-4 ATS at home overall under Holtz. Boise State is picked to finish 3rd in the WAC this year and they may get there by seasons end. However, with a new head coach, new QB, and almost entirely new defense making their debut on the road vs one of the SEC's best teams and a legitimate top 15 contender, it is very unlikely that the Broncos will be able to compete here. South Carolina started last season 4-0 SU & ATS including a season opening 31-0 win over New Mexico State. With so much experience and talent back they should have no problem getting off to a fast start again this year. Give the points. South Carolina 1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Illinois dominated throughout for an easy 44-17 win.  Despite missing two extra point attempts, South Carolina led 32-7 in the final minutes but gave up a touchdown late and won by only 19.  We gave the game out at -19.5 so we are counting it as a loss, but I know at least a handful of people won on the game at -18 or -18.5.  Looking forward to next week.