Friday October 6 Sheet

Oklahoma at Texas (-3) - 9:00am
We have been waiting for a good spot to go against Oklahoma and this appears to be it. I believe they are the most overrated team in college football right now. They are not deserving of the respect they are getting quite yet. Last year in Bob Stoops' first season they finished 7-5 straight up overall (7-4 ATS), but just 2-4 both straight up & against the spread away from home and they will be making their first road trip of the season here. The offense lost their two best offensive lineman from last year (C O'Neal, 3rd Team Big 12 & RT McDougle, 3rd Team all-American, 1st round NFL pick!), top two receivers (both received postseason honors), and top running back. On defense they lost their leading tackler (Rodney Rideau, 3rd team Big 12), top CB (William Bartee, 2nd round NFL pick) and have three newcomers starting in the secondary this year. Maybe even more costly is the loss of brilliant offensive coordinator Mike Leach who is now head coach at Texas Tech. Oklahoma has not played anyone yet and have poured it on late for some misleading final scores with the help of a very fortunate +2 turnovers per game so far. I'm sorry but UTEP, Arkansas State, Rice, and Kansas all at home is not going get you ready for the 2000 version of the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl. Texas coach Mack Brown is in his all important third year here. They already have a loss to Stanford so their is a definite sense of urgency here. The Longhorns are intimidating on both sides of the ball. Brown led North Carolina to three years of defensive dominance and appears to be on his way to the same here as they return 8 starters and have only allowed 7 points combined in their last two games. Senior defensive tackle tandem of Shaun Rogers (1st team Big 12 last year, probable this week with ankle injury) and Casey Hampton (1st team all-American last year) is easily the best in the nation. Sophomore defensive end Cory Redding is a budding star. The Texas secondary passed a test with flying colors two weeks ago when Houston came in averaging 343 passing yards, 448 total yards, and 23.6 points per game. The Longhorns held them to just 185 passing yards, 198 total yards, and 0 points! They will be ready for the Sooners pass happy offense. The offensive line is one of the biggest in the NCAA so expect the Longhorns to control the line of scrimmage on both sides. The offense is loaded with two good QB's, the proven Major Applewhite who can always be counted on for a solid performance, and the young Chris Simms who I think is due for a breakout game. They have a truly gifted young group of receivers to throw to. The running game has struggled in the early going but finally got on track last week vs Oklahoma State with 205 yards. Both teams know the Longhorn ground game will have an impact. Oklahoma offensive lineman Scott Kempenich gave the Texas defense some valuable bulletin board material with his less than complimentary remarks earlier in the week. Longhorn insiders say that the team and staff have had a quiet confidence concerning this game all week which is reason enough to play it. I wouldn't bet against Texas running the table from here on out. I usually prefer to stay away from "big" games and rivalries but couldn't pass this one up. Sooners meet their match and then some. Texas  1 UNIT

Auburn (pick) at Mississippi State - 12:30pm Pacific
Auburn really caught my attention a month ago in their win at Ole Miss. The Rebels are a team that we are very high on and Auburn was able to go in, take their best shot, and come out with a victory in a very emotional game. The Tigers have been almost flawless since then winning convincingly three games in a row. The offense returned 9 starters, has QB Ben Leard back at QB after missing most of last year with injuries, and has added JC all-American Rudi Johnson at running back. So far they have even exceeded the high preseason expectations. Auburn is finally healthy and strong on the offensive line after three years of dismay and they are paving the way for a potent offense. The Tigers are suddenly #1 in the SEC in rushing, led by Johnson with 143 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry! QB Leard has already thrown for over 1000 yards while completing 62% of his passes with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio. SEC coaches agree that Auburn has the best receiving corps in the conference led by standout Ronney Daniels (15 rec/215 yards/2 TD's). Seven different players are averaging at least one catch per game, seven different players have caught at least one touchdown pass, and five different players have at least 100 receiving yards. TE Robert Johnson (16.3 yards per catch) already has NFL scouts drooling and speedster Tim Carter reportedly has the fastest 40 yard time in the SEC. They also get H-Back and kick/punt returner senior Clifton Robinson (missed Vandy game) back this week. Did I mention this offense was potent? The big question mark coming into the year was Auburn's defense, but they have come together admirably and now even appear to be a strength. Last week they held a very capable Vanderbilt offense scoreless, without the aid of any turnovers. The Commodores came into the game averaging 357 yards a game, but were held to just 152 total yards! The Tigers have successfully blended an infusion of young talent, JC transfers, and returnees into a formidable unit. First year starters senior Roderick Chambers and redshirt freshman DeMarco McNeil have been monsters on the defensive line. Rob Pate (2nd team SEC last year) and Alex Lincoln (teams leading tackler last year, returned to practice Tuesday after missing Vandy game) lead the LB corps, while two talented and experienced senior CB's highlight a solid secondary. Reportedly this defense is not only good, but they are two deep at almost every position and rotate as many as 10 players each series! Miss State has caught more than their share of breaks this year. In each of their games they have gotten points from their defense. They caught a BYU team on just four days rest after they just had three tough road games, and even had a big fumble return for a touchdown and still lost at South Carolina. They rushed for 351 yards last week in a wild win over Florida, but were held under a 100 by both Memphis and South Carolina. Clearly, their running game is not THAT good. They will have to pass successfully to have a chance here, and I do not believe the always shaky Bulldog QB Wayne Madkin (4 interceptions already this year vs 2 touchdowns) and undersized receivers (top two both under 6 feet) are up to the task. The Bulldogs also have some significant injury problems. Four key starters sustained injuries last week. Starting senior CB Kendall Roberson is now listed as doubtful, his replacements last week were quickly burned for two Gator touchdowns. Starting junior defensive tackle Dorsett Davis had minor surgery early in the week and is also now listed as doubtful. Davis is a real force and a line clogger on defense, without him the Bulldogs will not be able to do a lot of the things they like. Two starting offensive lineman "Pork Chop" Womack and Kenric Fairchild are also listed as questionable. They have missed significant (have not practiced as of Wednesday) time, but it is hard to tell if they will see any action Saturday. If they don't it could really hurt the offense as the same 5 have started every game this year. Auburn is reportedly a much more closely knitted team this year. They will be playing with revenge after losing three straight in this series including last year when they blew a 16-0 lead and allowed Miss State to win in the final minute. Auburn is vastly improved since that game, while it remains to be seen if Miss State is as good as they were last year. Respect Bulldog coach Sherill, but prefer Tubbervillie in head to head matchup. Sherill called last weeks win over Florida their biggest in his tenure, it will be hard for him to prevent a letdown this week. Again, I usually prefer to stay away from the "big" games or this would be a 2 UNIT play. Tigers are ready and are even better than people think. Auburn  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

No excuses.  We have been uncharacteristically off these last two weeks.  Very much looking forward to get back in the win column next week.  8-6 & +3.4 UNITS year to date.