October 6, 2001 Sheet

Virginia (+7.5) at Maryland - 9:00am Pacific
The Cavaliers have really come along since we saw them vs Wisconsin opening week of the season. I felt they were in control of that game early on until a questionable penalty brought a touchdown back, their starting RB went down with an injury, and back to back interceptions by Matt Schaub in Wisconsin territory turned the momentum completely in favor of the Badgers. The team has since responded with three straight wins, including a huge 26-24 road win at Clemson two weeks ago. What I really like about this team is the exuberance and wittiness of their new young coaching staff. The average age of the assistant coaches is just 33 which in my mind is great because they can relate well to the players. Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and defensive coordinator Al Golden seem to have new tricks up their sleeves every week. Both have received rave reviews and can take much of the credit for the teams progress. 

Sophomore QB Bryson Spinner has started three straight games (all UVA wins) and ranks third in the ACC in pass efficiency. He has completed over 60% of his passes and has an impressive 7-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. In contrast, Maryland's Shaun Hill ranks 8th in the ACC in pass efficiency. Spinner is looking more and more comfortable in every game. Wideout Billy McMullen leads the nation with 7 touchdown catches through four games. The offensive line is experienced and is doing well both protecting the QB and paving the way for the running backs. The running game is still missing senior RB Antione Womack but backup Arlen Harris (81.0ypg, 4.3ypc) has filled in admirably and is also improving week to week. 

On defense, the young Virginia secondary has settled down and improved noticeably since the Wisconsin game. Overall they are giving up just 2 more passing yards per game than the "so called" vaunted Maryland pass defense which boasts 10 interceptions. The Virginia run defense is also improving, after giving up 4.4ypc and 5.0ypc in their first two games, they limited Clemson to just 3.5ypc and Duke to just 3.3ypc in their last two games. 

Maryland comes into this game a perfect 4-0, but I believe they are overrated and should not be giving so many points here. They benefited from 3 turnovers and a safety in beating North Carolina before the Tar Heels had gotten good back in early September. They then beat up on Eastern Michigan before going down to the wire vs Wake Forest. Last week, they benefited from an amazing 6 West Virginia turnovers in a 32-20 win. Despite the 6 turnovers, the Mountaineers still had edges in first downs, total yards, and time of possession. A 52 yard fumble return for a Maryland touchdown before half-time really changed the momentum of this one. After four games, Maryland leads the nation with a +10 turnover ratio. Alot of teams would be 4-0 with that kind of ratio. Their RB Bruce Perry is leading the nation in yards per game but that is mainly dew to skewed stats (276 yards vs Wake Forest). Meanwhile, Maryland is dead last (even behind Duke) in ACC passing yards. 

Virginia has a huge advantage here having already played two big road games at Wisconsin and at Clemson winning the latter. They head into this game with confidence. Meanwhile, Maryland's level of competition is very suspect. The Terps are coming off a wild game last week vs West Virginia while Virginia coasted to a 31-10 win over Duke that sets them up nicely for this. If Al Groh and his bright young coaching staff continue to press the right buttons, the Cavaliers should win this game outright. In any event, the +7.5 points provide clear value. Virginia  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Virginia gave up a costly blocked punt for a touchdown just before halftime and trailed 24-7.  They rallied for two touchdowns to start the 2nd half and trailed by just 3 at 24-21, however they could not hold Maryland down.  A field goal was blocked that could have tied the game at 24 and then Maryland ran off 17 straight 4th quarter points to put the game out of reach.