Friday October 27 Sheet

UCLA at Arizona (-5) - 4:00pm Pacific
I used the Wildcats in their season opener and wish I would have gone with them more often as they are having a strong season so far winning 5 out of 7 with the only two losses coming against top notch opponents. Their revamped unique flex defense has been instrumental in their success. The defensive line was a known commodity with dominating tackles Joe Tafoya (always likes to play UCLA tough after not being offered a scholarship) and Keoni Fraser along with two other starters returning from last season. However, it has been two newcomers that have really made the difference for this defense. Converted fullback Lance Briggs has emerged as a star at middle linebacker where he is leading the team in tackles in his first season on defense and redshirt freshman CB Michael Jolivette is already being compared to former Wildcat greats with his stellar play. He is third in the nation with 5 interceptions. Arizona is ranked 20th nationally in scoring defense despite giving up 47 points to Washington State in overtime two weeks ago. They have only allowed 10.3ppg vs their three other Pac-10 opponents. The Cats offense, led by senior QB Ortege Jenkins struggled in the early weeks of the season, but ever since their late September BYE week they have averaged 30 points a game. A key factor was the return of both starting wide receivers, Brad Brennan and Bobby Wade who did not play together until the Stanford game in week four. The offensive line has been strong every week despite injuries and true freshman Farmer & sophomore Mills are providing a solid one two punch at running back. UCLA is again reeling on defense. The Bruins have given up a whopping 90 points in their last two games, and 60 points in the two games prior to that. They are decimated with 13 injuries on that side of the ball, six of which are on the defensive line alone! Star defensive end Kenyon Coleman is already out for the year, their top defensive tackle Ken Kocher has been hobbled all season and now is finally out 2-4 weeks with a sprained knee, DE Sean Phillips is doubtful with an ankle injury, DE's Mat Ball (hand) and Rusty Williams (shoulder) are questionable, and DT Anthony Fletcher (back) is probable. At LB, the Bruins injury list includes star Robert Thomas (questionable), Dennis Link (doubtful), Asi Fioa (doubtful), Tony White (questionable), and Ryan Nece (questionable). Thomas, White, and Nece will probably end up being forced to start, but will be less than 100% even if they do and will not have any quality depth. This is one of the most beaten up front 7's that I can recall seeing in a while! It does not end there, starting senior CB Jason Bell (probable) is slowed with a hamstring injury while safety Jason Stephens is listed as out by ESPN.com. The Bruins have had strong CB play, but their safeties have been getting ripped, partly due to an ineffective pass rush. Only two UCLA defensive players have played all 7 games without an injury this year! They will again be in trouble this week. Against a tough Wildcat defense on the road, I do not think the Bruin offense will have enough success to make up for the defensive deficiencies. The Bruins have lost eight straight road games dating back to the end of 1998. They are now 7-14 ATS in road games under Toledo and 3-7 ATS as a road dog. The Bruins have to be disheartened right now after Oregon State ran all over them in the 2nd half last week and came back from a 10 point deficit. Arizona is clearly the team heading in a more positive direction right now. They return home for this game after playing three of four on the road and they are sure to be focused for the Bruins. Last time UCLA was here, they handed Arizona their only loss of the entire season in 1998. I look for the Wildcats to win this game by double digits. Arizona  2 UNITS

Oregon (-6) at Arizona State - 12:30pm Pacific
The Ducks are cruising right now. They are #1 in the Pac-10 (#10 in the nation) in total defense and ranked #3 in the Pac-10 in total offense. This is despite a murderous schedule that had them playing four conference heavyweights in a row. It is amazing that their offense, which had averaged 34 points per game since head coach Belotti took over in 1995, is actually holding this team back from real greatness. They are only averaging 23.5ppg in Pac-10 play thus far. They have all the tools for success with a solid QB in Joey Harrington, an improving offensive line, a superb RB in Maurice Morris, and two talented WR's in Keenan Howry & Marshaun Tucker. They just have not quite not put it all together yet. I will call for this to be the breakout week for the Ducks offense and I look for them to score over 30 points. They are just too good to continue underachieving. They will be going against what I think is still a very suspect Arizona State defense. The Sun Devils have yielded 418.5 yards per contest in Pac-10 play. The only reason they have not allowed even more yards and more points is because they have been lucky to force 25 turnovers in just 7 games! That is second highest in the nation! They also have some injuries right now with both starting safeties listed as doubtful and questionable respectively for this game. It is amazing that this team has gone 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games the way they have been playing. They gave up 488 yards to Washington State (120 yards more than they gained themselves) last week, but were helped out by 5 Cougar turnovers, including one at the goal line in overtime, and escaped with a 3 point win. Their luck has to run out here against their toughest and most well coached opponent to date. I see Oregon with clear advantages on both offense and defense. I would also give Mark Belotti the coaching edge over almost anyone in the country right now. The Ducks are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 on real grass and 8-4 ATS as a road favorite under Belotti. Oregon cannot afford a mishap here and I simply do not see it happening. This is the easiest opponent they will have faced since early September. Pac-10's best team wins convincingly. Oregon  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

I do not know if its just me, or if the Pac-10 is just the hardest conference to handicap right now.  Arizona was looking good until all of the sudden their offense could only muster 3 points in the entire second half against a weak Bruins defense.  QB Jenkins throwing a career high 4 interceptions certainly did not help their cause.  We were right about Oregon's offense coming alive this week as they put up 42 points in regulation alone.  Who would have known the nations tenth best defense would get torn apart by Arizona State?  It was a crazy week.  Especially in the Pac-10.  We are now on a very disappointing 2-8 streak.  Nonetheless, we remain very able and determined to make this a successful season.