October 27, 2001 Sheet

Michigan (-5.5) at Iowa - 12:30pm Pacific
The Wolverines are the Big 10's best team. If not for having a blocked field goal and interception returned for back to back touchdowns vs Washington, they would be undefeated right now. Their defense returned 8 starters from last year and consists of almost all upperclassmen. They are solid and deep at just about every position on that side of the ball. In three Big-10 conference games this year, Michigan has given up just 10.0ppg. This is despite two of their three Big-10 opponents having high powered offenses (Illinois, Purdue) and both being top 25 ranked. On offense, the Wolverines were a little bit "green" to start the season as they returned only 4 starters and had to break in an almost entirely new offensive line. The new line is starting to gain cohesion and coaches say the offensive line is a "hair" away from being great. Two weeks ago they gained 355 total yards vs a solid and experienced Purdue defense. This is despite turning the ball over 4 times (3 lost fumbles & 1 WR thrown interception). Michigan QB John Navarre is quietly becoming one of the better QB's in the league. Against Purdue in last game he completed 21-of-27 (77.8%) for 233 yards. He has not thrown an interception in 4 straight games and now has a two year career ratio of 17 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions! Reports indicate that pro scouts have had their eye on Navarre for a while. Another guy pro scouts have their eye on is WR Marquise Walker. Walker has really stepped up his game since Big 10 play started. In the first three games of the season, he only had 7 catches for 107 yards. In his last three games (all vs Big 10 opponents) he has 22 catches for 327 yards! He is a super talent and big time playmaker. 

I am still not a believer in the Hawkeyes. They were able to rip some big plays off last week vs a terrible Indiana defense but still had less yardage, less first downs, and 9 minutes less time of possession than Indiana in the game. Their offense is going to continue to struggle against the better defenses out there. They only managed 14 points vs Purdue, and as we discussed last week, 21 of their 28 points vs Michigan State were more or less unearned. QB Kyle McCann is battling a confidence problem right now as he has thrown 7 interceptions in his last three games. While Michigan is giving up only 10.0ppg in conference play, Iowa has given up 25ppg in conference play.

The Wolverines are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball and Michigan faithful say their special teams are the best they have been in years. Lloyd Carr lost both of his games last year after BYE weeks, but has taken extra steps this year to insure his team is able to keep their intensity and momentum up. These two teams have not seen each other since the 1998 season so the BYE week should give Michigan even more of an edge than usual from a preparation standpoint. Wolverines by double digits. Michigan  1 UNIT

Louisville (-3.5) at Cincinnati - 11:00am Pacific
The Cardinals have not been very pretty in recent weeks but continue to get the job done. They are now 6-1 on the season, yet still have not played to their full ability on both sides of the ball for an entire game. Their only loss of the season came at Illinois where they suffered 5 turnovers and were slipping and sliding all over the field due to bad shoe selection. Surprisingly, the Louisville defense ranks 17th nationally allowing only 16.0ppg. That number could be even lower if not for the Illinois debacle (34 points), first game kinks vs New Mexico State (24 points), and two 4th quarter garbage touchdowns by Memphis (21 points). They have only allowed 9.5ppg in the other four games. The Louisville offense has not been its usual high powered self in recent games but they are still doing enough to win. This game will be the first time all season that they have started the same 5 offensive linemen in consecutive games. They also will welcome the return of starting RB TJ Patterson who has been out since the Illinois game. The Cardinals have not played since Tuesday, October 16, so it is almost the equivalent of a BYE week. This gave extra time for WR Deion Branch (1st team C-USA performer, missed most of Southern Miss game) and TE Ronnie Ghent (1st team C-USA performer, missed part of Southern Miss game) to heal injuries. Both are expected to be ready to go for this one. This could be the week that this offense finds itself again. QB Dave Ragone is too good for it not too.

Been waiting for an opportunity to go against this Bearcat team. Could not pull the trigger with struggling Houston last week. Cincinnati is 4-2, and 4-0 in C-USA play. Their 4 wins have come against the likes of Army, Tulane, UAB, and Houston who have a combined record this year of 6-17! They are 0-2 in games vs teams with a winning record (Purdue, Miami Ohio). Even in their four wins against weak opponents they have not been impressive at all. They had to rally in the 4th quarter and score a late touchdown to beat Army 24-21. They gave up 535 total yards to Tulane in a 13 point win. They benefited from an interception return and blocked punt return for touchdowns in a 31-17 win over UAB in which the Blazers had a lot more first downs (19-10) and a lot more total yards (333-220). Finally, last week the Bearcats struggled to get by winless Houston 29-28. Cinci trailed by double digits twice in the 2nd half and had to rally with two 4th quarter touchdowns to escape with the win. Keep in mind that the Bearcats lost their top 6 tacklers from last season on defense and are playing with a 2nd string first year QB on offense. Louisville is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite under John L. Smith. Cincinnati's luck runs out today and the Cardinals keep on winning. Louisville  1 UNIT

October 30, 2001 Sheet

East Carolina (-6) at TCU - 5:00pm Pacific
I hope some of you were able to get this one in before the big line move. East Carolina is a very good football team who is becoming more and more explosive each week. They are getting outstanding offensive line play which is allowing them to be an offensive juggernaut right now. East Carolina comes into the game averaging 34.2ppg. They are led offensively by a pair of record setting seniors who seemingly have been here forever in QB David Garrard (128.2 pass efficiency) and RB Leonard Henry. Henry is having an incredible year ranking 6th in the NCAA with 134.7ypg and 2nd in the NCAA with 8.3 yards per carry! When I said the offensive line was playing well, I was not kidding. No one has been able to stop the ECU running game this year. North Carolina (ranks 15th nationally in total defense) gave up 105 yards to Henry while Syracuse (33rd nationally) gave up 177. Both of those defenses would rank even higher if not for murderous schedules. The success of the running game only makes things easier on QB Garrard and the passing game. 

In contrast, TCU comes into the game ranked 96th in the nation in total offense. This is despite a 485 yard outburst vs Army in their last game and despite the fact that they have played three teams this year (not counting I-AA NW State) ranked 100, 106, and 113 in total defense! The Horned Frogs are 4-3 but have played only one quality opponent (Nebraska) and 6 cupcakes. TCU is the only I-A team that I-AA Northwestern State and Tulane have beaten this year. The Horned Frogs four wins have come against North Texas, Army, Houston, and SMU who have a combined record of 6-21. TCU not only lost almost their entire offense and defense from last year, but also lost a top notch head coach and some staff. They have lost two defensive starters since the Nebraska game as well. Their defensive stats are deceiving because of their favorable schedule. East Carolina meanwhile is coming off their best defensive performance of the season as they held Memphis to 13 points in last game. The Pirates are finally getting healthy on that side of the ball with top coverman Kelly Hardy now back in the lineup giving them a big lift. They are experienced on defense with 9 starters back. 

TCU backup QB Sean Stilley had a big game vs Army in his first career start last game but the ECU defense will clearly be a much bigger test. Starting QB Casey Printers (shoulder) was downgraded today from probable to "game time decision" which is one reason why the line jumped 3.5 points. The Pirates will be playing with some added incentive as they were beaten by TCU 28-14 in a 1999 bowl game that they were held to -16 rushing yards. The offensive line is already having a great year and have taken it upon themselves to make up for that bowl game failure. This is ECU's biggest game of the season so far and first on national television. I believe the Pirates will respond with a quality win. East Carolina  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Michigan started sluggishly, had some costly turnovers, and gave up a critical punt return for a touchdown but kicked a late field goal to win by 6.  Most people either pushed at -6 or covered at -5.5.  Louisville started strong and finished strong in a convincing 28-13 win over Cincinnati.  The Cardinals defense continues to impress.  East Carolina dominated the first half and led 27-3, but then had to hold on for their lives after fumbling a punt, throwing an INT, and losing an onside kick.