Friday October 20 Sheet

South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+6) - 11:00am Pacific
I was high on Vanderbilt early in the year as I thought they were much better than looked in their first three games, all losses. They had to play their first two games without perhaps their two most talented defensive players LB Jamie Winborn (preseason all-SEC, #1 in SEC in tackles last year, teams leading tackler) and CB Jimmy Williams (preseason all-SEC, teams best cornerback) due to suspensions. Both are senior leaders and NFL prospects. Coaches feel it took the team longer than expected to overcome their absence and adjust to their return. The defense may have not been themselves until very recently. This is a defense that was one of the best in the nation back in 1997 and returns 9 starters from a solidly improved group in 1999. After being burned on the ground by Alabama, Ole Miss, and Auburn, they held Georgia to just 92 yards rushing and 3.2ypc last week. They are determined to hold South Carolina back Watson (currently 2nd in SEC) to under 100 yards. They sure picked a good week to do it as the Gamecocks have no less than FIVE offensive lineman injured for this game. Starting guard Cedric Williams is listed as out, while four others are all listed as questionable (virus, ankle, toe, back). Meanwhile, South Carolina is also weakened on defense with starting free safety Antione Nesmith lost for the season last week, starting LB Kenny Harney set to miss his second straight game, and starting nose tackle Cleveland Pickney (top interior lineman) listed as questionable with a sprained ankle. I am not a true believer in South Carolina to begin with. Their last two games were basically handed to them by Kentucky ('Cats self destructed in red zone) and Arkansas ('Backs had 4 turnovers and had nothing go right all day). The Gamecocks have benefited from 20 opponent turnovers in all and a +7 ratio in their three SEC wins! The Vanderbilt offense was taken over by new coordinator Steve Crosby three weeks ago and had by far their best showing (according to players & coaches) of the season last week at Georgia. QB Greg Zolman completed 28-for-42 for 334 yards against the Bulldogs #1 rated pass defense in the nation coming into the game. He has two talented go to guys in WR Dan Stricker (13th in the nation in receiving) and TE Elliot Carson (2nd team SEC last year, has been slowed by injury, now 100%). The offensive line has not produced a strong running attack but have pass protected well all year. They may get starting guard Duncan Cave (resumed practice, expected to see action) back this week from injury. Vanderbilt out gained Georgia 442-to-307, had a 20-to-16 first down advantage, and dominated time of possession 34:17-to-25:43. The Commodores led the game early on, but were doomed in by 4 turnovers, one being a 62 yard interception runback for a TD, and two blocked kicks. They still managed to lose by only 10 points and held #13 ranked Georgia to just 6 second half points. Now, after three straight games on the road Vandy finally returns home and is looking to build off of last weeks performance. Respected coach Woody Widenhoffer has believed all along that he has a good team. The players reportedly have shown great resiliency and have held their heads high despite their 2-5 record. They head into this game with a surprisingly high level of confidence. This will be homecoming for the Commodores and they are looking to have a strong performance after recent years of embarrassment. South Carolina became bowl eligible last week and their fans are already talking about hosting Tennessee next week. It's hard to imagine them playing with any more intensity than Vandy in this spot. Asking them to win two SEC road games in a row is tough. Their injury woes certainly will not help matters either. I expect Vanderbilt to finally play close to their full potential here and win this game convincingly straight up. Plus this many points is a great value. Vanderbilt  2 UNITS 

Boston College at Pittsburgh (-3) - 9:00am Pacific
I really believe Pittsburgh is an underrated team right now. They are a very solid football team on both sides of the ball for respected head coach Walt Harris. They returned 7 starters on each side from a better than looked 5-6 team of last year that played both then #1 Penn State and eventual #2 Va Tech tough. They also beat Notre Dame late in the season last year. They came very close to their first winning season since 1991. This year they have done almost everything right including the shut out of their bitter instate rival Penn State. They are 4-1 overall and determined to get that elusive winning season and bowl birth. Their only loss came two weeks ago in overtime to Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. The Panthers led the game 9-0 in the early going, missed a game winning FG in overtime, and then gave up a crazy 23 yard TD pass to the back of the end zone after they had sacked the QB for a 17 yard loss on the ensuing play! They have had a BYE week, their second in three weeks, to prepare for this crucial matchup. After the unlucky loss vs Syracuse, the Panthers are still 4-2 ATS after a BYE week under Harris. 5th year senior QB John Turman (56.2%, 7 TD's, 2 INT's, 2nd in Big East passing efficiency) has finally been officially named the starting QB this week after almost a year and a half of sharing duties. Expect him to have a big game in his new role. He has a strong offensive line and is surrounded by talented skill position players. Senior RB tandem of Kevin Barlow and Nick Goings (Ohio State transfer) average over 100 yards per game between them. Meanwhile, receiving tandem Latef Grim and go to man Antonio Bryant (leading receiver in Big East) average 157 receiving yards per game between them. This is a balanced attack. They also will get back explosive redshirt freshman Rod Rutherford (reportedly fully healthy for this) who can run, catch, play QB, and averages 8.2 yards per touch! On defense the Panthers are led by junior defensive end Bryan Knight (Big East sack & tackle for loss leader), sophomore LB Gerald Hayes (3rd leading tackler in Big East), and surprising true freshman defensive back Will Ferguson who is fourth in the conference in pass break ups. The Panthers come into the game ranked 11th in the nation in total defense and ranked 4th in nation against the run! If they play to form they should be able to neutralize BC's running game which the Eagles rely so heavily upon. Both of these teams have a common opponent in Syracuse. While Pitt was somewhat unlucky to lose at the Carrier Dome, BC was very fortunate to beat the Orangemen 20-13 last week at home. SU QB Nunes had an awful game completing just 9 out of 22 with 4 interceptions, including one that was returned for a backbreaking TD, and another that stopped the Orangemen at the goal line. Nonetheless, Syracuse was still in the game until the end. BC is still hurt by injuries on defense as lineman Antonio Garay, LB Scott Bradley, and CB Jonathan Ordway, all three starters, are out for this game. Because of it they have been susceptible to the run all season. The Eagles have surprisingly covered 5 straight games against the spread thanks mainly to an amazing +13 turnover ratio during the span and have played 4 straight games at home. They have not been on the road since early September. BC has narrowly beaten Pitt in three successive meetings. Their luck runs out today. Panther players vow to give coach Harris his first victory over the Eagles. This is a big game for both teams bowl hopes. Quality and hungry Pitt team playing at home after a BYE week will prove too much for the Eagles. Give the small number. Pittsburgh  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Vanderbilt had their chances but turned the ball over three times in the final 11 minutes and it ended up being South Carolina's day.  The Gamecocks converted two fake kicks for touchdowns which really were backbreakers.  Pittsburgh led throughout and won fairly comfortably in a much higher scoring game than expected.  The Panthers are a team we will continue to watch closely.