Friday October 13 Sheet

Wisconsin (-2.5) at Michigan State - 9:00am Pacific
With 16 returning starters from a team that won 21 of 24 games over the previous two seasons, including back to back Rose Bowl's, and with QB Brooks Bollinger who had never lost as a starter before this year (8-0), its easy to see why this Badger team had huge expectations and a preseason top 5 ranking. Then came the infamous shoe scandal and a host of suspensions that eventually was too much to overcome. After surviving some scares, but still managing wins over the likes of Cincinnati and current Pac-10 favorite Oregon, the Badgers were shocked by Northwestern 47-44 in overtime in their final game of the suspensions. Back at full strength for the first time, Wisconsin lost a heartbreaker in their next game at Michigan 13-10. The Badgers committed 4 costly turnovers, including an interception in the end zone and just missed a game tying 42 yard field goal in the final minute. Finally, last week vs Ohio State, the Badgers came out flat giving up an 80 yard touchdown run early in the game and never recovered. Senior free safety Jason Doering, the leading tackler in the Big 10 coming into the game had a horrible day as he was slowed by injury, had missed practice time the prior week, and ended up leaving with a concussion. As the Badgers fell behind early, they were unable to play to their strengths and ended up getting sacked 9 times. On the bright side, they did have longer time of possession and more first downs overall as they outscored the #5 Buckeyes 7-3 in the 2nd half. I believe this will be the week Wisconsin puts the hammer down and comes out of their slump. They have not lost three straight Big 10 games for quite some time and I do not think Barry Alvarez is going to allow them to lose four in a row. The offensive line, which is always a strength here, played poorly last week and will be looking to have a big game this week vs a suspect Michigan State defensive line. RB Michael Bennett now ranks 3rd nationally in rushing. QB Bollinger may finally find the rhythm this week that he has been missing this year due in part to all of the OL & WR suspensions. On defense the Badgers have a strong defensive line led by All-American candidate Wendell Bryant and a super secondary led by another All-American in Jamar Fletcher. Their special teams are traditionally superb and this year is no different. We have been down on Michigan State since early in the year and they have done nothing to change our mind. They are 3-2 overall, but could just as easily be 0-5 as they narrowly escaped in all three of their wins. Due in part to injuries, the Spartans now have 18 redshirt and true freshman in their two deep. Last week they allowed Iowa to break a 13 game losing streak (2nd longest in the nation) as the Hawkeyes beat the Spartans for their first Big 10 win since 1998. Iowa did get some breaks in the game (namely a 90+ yard kickoff return for a TD), but Michigan State had some good fortunes of their own. Iowa fumbled inside the MSU 20 in the first quarter when they already were leading 7-0. Later on in the 2nd half, the Spartans recovered a fumbled punt that led to a touchdown. So the Iowa win was not so much a fluke, despite what the total yardage numbers may indicate. Michigan State has a tremendous running back in T.J. Duckett, but not much else. Their passing game has been very weak, even with regular starter Van Dyke returning to action last week. He has a worse completion percentage (45.2%) than his true freshman backup. The teams second leading receiver TE Chris Baker (2nd team Big 10 last year, listed as questionable) may have to sit this one out with an ankle injury. The Spartan receiving corps were dealt a blow early in the season when top recruit and projected starter Charles Rogers was declared ineligible. The passing woes have led to a horrible 27% third down conversion percentage! This type of offense plays right into the hands of Wisconsin's strength which is physical, run oriented football. On defense it does not get much better for the Spartans. They have gotten away without giving up too many points (outside of Northwestern's 37) due to facing mostly inept offenses, but will have their hands full today. Their are four freshman in the defensive line rotation, all Big 10 LB T.J. Turner has not been at full strength all year and is listed as out for this game, and a couple of safeties are still banged up but are probable to play. Michigan State has also been plagued by penalties all year. Any coach knows that it is not an easy problem to fix without losing some aggressiveness. Previews say that this is a big game for both teams, but in all reality Wisconsin has a favorable schedule ahead and could easily win out from here. Meanwhile, the Spartans could very easily be an underdog in every game and not win again all year. Wisconsin needs this win badly and this may be their easiest opponent since their season opener. Look for the Badgers to have their day here and take this comfortably. Wisconsin  1 UNIT

NC State at North Carolina (-2) - 12:30pm Pacific
We are still high on the Tar Heels this year. They may be ready to hit their best stride this week for head coach Carl Torbush who could lose his job with a loss here. Two weeks ago vs Georgia Tech, the Heels outplayed and outgained the Jackets by more than 100 yards. Early in the 2nd quarter UNC had a 180-to-39 yard advantage, a 7-0 lead, and a 1st and goal. A touchdown was called back and then QB Curry was intercepted in the end zone two plays later. The game was tied 14-14 at half-time, until GT capitalized on TWO botched punt snaps, taking over once at the UNC 12 yard line, and then returning a block for a TD giving them a 28-14 lead. UNC was intercepted (tipped pass) on another first and goal opportunity later in the game but still managed to climb back up and tie the game at 28-28 before finally running out of gas. GT rumbled 50 yards on a 3rd and 1 in the final minute for the misleading 42-28 final margin. The Tar Heels really feel they should have won this game and they had an extra BYE week to think about it and get ready for NC State. The Heels are 9-3 with a tie after BYE weeks since 1989. I am expecting a huge effort from their defense this week after a sub-par performance vs GT in last game. Again, this defense returned 10 starters from last year and is star studded. They lead the ACC in sacks with defensive end Julius Peppers being a preseason national defensive player of the year candidate. The LB corps now has TWO Butkus award nominees in seniors Brandon Spoon and now Sedrick Hodge who was recently added to the watch list. Cornerback Errol Hood is on the Thorpe award watch list. The new Tar Heel offense under coordinator Mike O'Cain (coached Wolfpack's Jamie Barnett to ACC's all-time leader in total offense) really may be coming along as heralded QB Curry is improving each week and set a career high with 388 yards (17-for-31) vs Georgia Tech. They would have scored more than 28 points if not for the two 1st and goal mishaps. Curry is clearly a big time talent that belongs in the company of VT's Vick and IU's Randle El. He just has not put it all together yet in a big game. This certainly will be his chance to do so. He has a great receiving corps and probably the best tight end tandem in the country. The running game and offensive line were big question marks to start the season but have made solid progress. The Wolfpack have covered 4 straight games ATS now and have looked good doing it, but the buck stops here. They got a reality check last week at Clemson, their first loss of the year, and now head into an entirely new situation coming off a loss and having a great deal of pressure on them to perform well against their instate rivals on the road. Their young QB Rivers has done everything asked thus far but is taking more and more hits (Amato estimated 27 vs Clemson) and their has to be a question of his durability at this point. UNC could very easily be the first team to rattle him with their intense pass rush (sacks) and secondary speed (interceptions). Rivers has only thrown 4 interceptions this year, but that number could be a lot higher as he has gotten away with a lot of questionable passes. NC State is very thin in their LB and secondary corps right now as 4 players were forced to play all 119 snaps vs Clemson last week. That could be a factor here. I believe the Tar Heels have an overall talent edge. Not only is former NC State head coach Mike O'Cain on the UNC staff, but two other former NCSU assistants are here with him as well. The players will get this win for them. That, along with playing at home (on campus for the first time since 1997) and having the BYE week to prepare gives too many advantages to the Heels. North Carolina  1 UNIT

Washington (-5) at Arizona State - 7:15pm Pacific
Do not believe these two teams are on the same level right now. Washington is clearly the superior team. Three weeks ago I was surprised how easily the Sun Devils gave up a 21-0 lead to the Bruins and eventually lost 38-31. That was not a very good night for ASU as they gave up 500 yards of offense to the Bruins and lost starting QB Kealy for the season in the process. Second stringer Jeff Krohn (former walk-on) went down with mono the week prior which left the starting job in the hands of third stringer Griffin Goodman (also a former walk-on). He hit several long passes against Cal last week so his yardage numbers were impressive but he only completed 11-for-28 and has completed just 42% of his passes overall this season. His performance against lowly Cal was misleading as the Bears secondary was making uncharacteristic mistakes that led to huge pass plays and ASU benefited from playing with the lead throughout. Do not expect the same to happen vs UW. The ASU running game has also struggled with the early season loss of starting RB Delvon Flowers, while backup Davaren Hightower continues to be slowed by injuries. On defense the Sun Devils are a big question mark. In addition to giving up 500 yards to UCLA, they gave up 390 yards to a pathetic Cal offense last week which was 100 yards over the Bears season average coming into the game. I do not recall two Pac-10 teams looking as bad as Cal and ASU did in last weeks game. The Sun Devils also have been injury plagued and have been forced to mix and match lineups. Now in comes Washington who is clearly a class act and can ill-afford even the thought of losing here if they are to keep their Rose Bowl hopes alive. They are led by a top notch senior QB and are very well coached. The Huskies are already 3-1 ATS as a road favorite under Neuheisel. The Huskies caught some tough breaks (3 turnovers to the Ducks 0) in their 23-17 loss at Oregon two weeks ago, but came back with a big win over Oregon State last week. They racked up over 500 yards of total offense against the previously strong Beaver defense. Washington will be looking to avenge an embarrassing 28-7 home loss last year at the hands of the Sun Devils. ASU home attendance is considerably down this year as fans voice their dislike of head coach Snyder. Do not expect this one to stay close for too long. Give the points. Washington  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Wisconsin has to play with their back-up QB the entire second half, fortunately, their defense held MSU scoreless in the 2nd half and the backup QB delivered his first carrer touchdown pass in the final minute for the win and cover!  I believe North Carolina was outcoached by NC State.  The Tar Heels were killed in the field position battle.  The Wolfpack's first four touchdown drives averaged just 33 yards in length!  It is hard to stop any team under those circumstances.  I know a few people pushed on Washington but the line dropped as low as -4.5 on game day so most people won with it and we are calling it a winner.  This was one of the craziest games I have seen in a while.  12 turnovers, blocked kicks by both teams, and the ASU safety that provided the final margin of 6.  Nice to be back in the win column and we'll look to build on it this week!