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November 5 - Week 11

Iowa State at Texas Tech (-2.5) - 11:00am Pacific
Texas Tech ran into an a buzzsaw last week at Missouri and gave their worst performance of the season. The Red Raiders fumbled a kickoff that setup Missouri at the 2 yard line and could not convert from the 1 yard line themselves at the end of the first half. Missouri stacked the line of scrimmage and shut the Red Raiders down for almost the entire ball game. Tech players afterwards said that Missouri seemed to know what play was coming. The good news is that the Red Raiders escaped the game injury free and have the perfect opportunity to bounce back this week vs Iowa State. The Red Raiders still control their own destiny, 3 wins to end the season and they will play in the Big 12 championship! Backup QB Kliff Kingsbury returned to practice this week and will be available for the first time in awhile which means we will see the
entire Tech playbook this week. Head coach Dykes has been very conservative the past two weeks trying to protect QB Peters with no capable backup available and the offense has suffered because of it. With that in mind and with an offensive line that promises a better performance this week, Tech should be able to get out of its recent offensive slump. Iowa State is coming off a heartbreaking 44-41 home loss to Texas last week. The entire Cyclone defense is banged up right now. They have been playing without both starting CB's for four straight games, they lost senior starting LB Dave Brcka last week to injury who will be replaced by a true freshman on a LB unit that was already rebuilt, and starting FS Dustin Avey is listed as "day to day" with a shoulder injury. The Cyclone defense had some early season success against weak
competition, (Indiana State, UNLV, Iowa) but has given up an average of 438 yards per game vs their last 4 opponents and the injuries will continue to take their toll. Texas Tech was clearly the better team in last years matchup and we do not think Iowa State has closed the gap enough. Red Raiders will be up for this game as they are returning home after an embarrassing loss and their 6 year bowl game streak is on the line. Iowa State is 6-17 ATS on the road under coach McCarney. Texas Tech is an amazing 17-3 ATS off a straight up loss (including missed cover by 1.5 points vs LA-Monroe this year) since 1994. Red Raiders return home to their preferred artificial turf playing surface this week after a two game road trip (both on grass). Tech is 28-15 ATS as a home favorite under Dykes and 41-23-1 ATS when playing on artificial turf. Red Raiders get the job done this week. Texas Tech 1 UNIT

Arkansas at Mississippi (+1) - 3:00pm Pacific
We remain very high on the Rebels this year. They are again a small home underdog and we believe this time they will come through for us with a straight up win. Ole Miss had a badly needed BYE week after their loss to Alabama which game them time to heal several nagging injuries and to do some fine tuning. They then showed what they could do when fresh and healthy with a big win on the road vs an improving and underrated LSU team last week. The Rebels (18 returning starters) return home this week and find themselves exactly where they were last year, with a 6-2 record and Arkansas on deck. Last year at Arkansas, a young Ole Miss team had two turnovers inside the 5 yard line and ended up getting blown out by a senior laden Arkansas team 34-0 on a muddy field that favored the Razorbacks. The Rebels went on to lose their final two games as well as their head coach. With that experience in mind the Rebels have a great opportunity this week at home to not let it happen again. Arkansas executed flawlessly last week vs Auburn and had everything go their way including rainy weather. The Razorbacks converted on several improbable 3rd downs early on. Auburn QB Leard was knocked out of the game on the 3rd series and the game was never close. We still think the Razorbacks are severely overrated. The only team they have faced this year with an accomplished running game was Alabama who racked up 494 yards and 35 points vs Arkansas despite 6 turnovers! The Rebels have the best running back duo in the country and had an outstanding offensive line performance last week as they rushed for 323 yards. Their run defense was also dominant limiting LSU to 15 yards on 25 carries! Ole Miss leads the SEC in rushing offense and is #4 in the country in run defense. The Rebels defense was not 100% vs Alabama three weeks ago with top DL Clancy and a starting LB both slowed with injuries. This team is talented and can flat out get it done now that they are at full strength. Razorbacks are 2-4 ATS as a road favorite under Nutt. Rebels want this one more and will get a big home win. Mississippi 1 UNIT

California (+8.5) at Oregon State - 3:30pm Pacific
What does Cal have to do to get respect? The Bears have put together an impressive three game stretch. They first did the improbable by shutting out UCLA 17-0. They then had Pac-10 front-runner Washington against the ropes, leading 24-10 in the 3rd quarter before falling 31-27. They rebounded off of that game with another impressive showing, a 17-7 win over USC last week. Highly touted Cal freshman QB Kyle Boller was rated in the top 5 of all high school quarterbacks in the country last year. He has
struggled at times this year but is getting better and better with every game. He threw a 33 yard game clinching TD pass last week vs USC. Freshman RB Joe Igber has emerged as a goto running back with 539 yards on the season despite limited playing time. His yards per carry average (5.4) is higher than OSU's Ken Simonton. Igber saw very limited action last week because of a shoulder injury but will return to his starting role this week. UCLA's offensive coordinator called Cal's defensive front 7 the best in college football and that was BEFORE the Bears shut UCLA out. They truly are very solid up front and not so shabby in the secondary either. CB Delta O'Neal is quickly becoming one of the best defensive backs in the country. He has set a school record with 3 interception runbacks for TD's already this season. Starting SS Damien Marzett missed last weeks game with an ankle injury but will play this week. This will by far be the best defensive group of athletes Oregon State has faced this year. The Beavers have already failed miserably against the two best defenses they have faced so far (USC & Washington). Cal is an impressive 9-3 ATS as a road dog under Tom Holmoe. Granted, Oregon State is an improved team, but the Beavers have no business giving this many points to a good Cal team. Bears defense will be the key.
California 1 UNIT