November 23 Sheet

West Virginia at Pittsburgh (-5) - Friday - 11:30am Pacific
Inside the Panthers newly refurbished weight training room, a posted sign simply reads "November 24, 2000". It has been there since the end of last year and its sole purpose is to remind players of their final game last year and to motivate them for this particular game. Not only is this a big rivalry, labeled as the "Backyard Brawl", not only has West Virginia blown out Pitt the last two seasons by margins of 52-14 and 52-21, but last year Pitt was eliminated from bowl game consideration because of the loss and it is highly likely that the loser of this game will suffer the same fate. Meanwhile, the winner is certain to go to a very nice bowl game. After starting the season 5-1, Pitt lost some of the wind in its sail after a heartbreaking 37-34 loss on the road at then #2 ranked Virginia Tech. They carried a 7 point lead into the 4th quarter in that game but could not hold on as their defense gave way late. In the first half of that game the Panthers lost talented sophomore free safety Ramon Walker to injury. Walker by far led the team in tackles last year with 131 as a freshman. He would probably be the teams leading tackler this year if not for missed playing time. He missed the following two games and the defense was not the same in losses to UNC and Miami, Fla. He returned last week vs Temple and the defense pitched a shutout! The Pitt offense also has struggled in recent weeks, although senior QB John Turman still ranks 6th nationally in pass efficiency despite recent shortcomings. Last week he got to watch from the sidelines for parts of the game and it probably will do him some good. This is his last home game and I expect him to play well. The 7-0 final score of Pitt's win at Temple last week is a bit misleading. Pitt had significant first down (23-to-11), total yardage (388-to-182), and time of possession (34:04-to-25:56) advantages over the Owls. The culprit was 4 lost fumbles and 5 turnovers in all. Pitt now ranks 96th in the country in turnover ratio and have more lost fumbles (18) than any team in the country. I have learned that giving credit to a team that has turnover woes can be a mistake, but I believe that more credit is due when the turnovers are lost fumbles as opposed to interceptions. Despite the unlucky turnovers, Pitt has some glaring statistical advantages over West Virginia. The Pitt offense averages 388.6 (4th in Big East) yards per game compared to WVU's 343.9 (6th in Big East). The Pitt defense allows 319.1 yards per game (2nd in Big East) compared to WVU's 367.0 yards per game (6th in Big East). Pitt is converting 40.3% (3rd in the Big East) of its 3rd down conversions compared to WVU's 28.6% (7th in the Big East). Perhaps most telling, Pitt is #1 in the Big East in passing offense and West Virginia is last in pass defense! You do not have to take my word that Pitt is a better team, just look at the numbers! On offense, Pitt has balance with two good QB's, two good RB's, and a talented receiving corps that includes recently named 1st team All-American Antonio Bryant who leads the nation in receiving yards per game. The defense which ranks 18th in the country in points allowed is led by DE Bryan Knight who leads the Big East with a whopping 25 tackles for loss! The LB's are solid led by Gerald Hayes (10.4 tackles per game) and Amir Purifoy (7.5 tackles per game). The secondary has talent and is bolstered by the previously mentioned return of FS Walker. Last week West Virginia had everything go their way in Don Nehlen's final home game. The combination of WVU's emotional boost, the cold weather, and their first time playing on artificial turf this season had ECU out of sync and reeling from the get go. On top of that WVU was handed two touchdowns on an awkward botched punt play and a crazy attempted lateral by ECU QB. It is really amazing that the Mountaineers have won 6 games. In my view not a single one of them has been a quality win. They narrowly beat Rutgers, Temple, and Idaho. They had tremendous breaks in their wins over BC, Maryland, and ECU. West Virginia has only played three games away from home this year and they have struggled each time going 0-3 ATS. On top of that starting defensive tackle Antwan Lake will miss his second straight game with a knee injury. Enough said. Pitt head coach Walt Harris felt his team had their best practices of the year prior to the Temple game and he expects them to continue to work hard this week. I really think under these circumstances the Panthers are capable of an explosion in this game. Their defense will at least contain the West Virginia offense and it will only be a matter of time before the Pitt offense puts up enough points for a comfortable win and cover. Panthers roll in the final college football game played at historic Three Rivers Stadium.  Pittsburgh 3 UNITS

Weekly Recap

We finally made up for some of our recent shortcomings with an big 3 UNIT winner.  Pittsburgh had two first half turnovers inside the red zone but still led 14-3 at the half.  They exploded for 24 3rd quarter points to take a 38-9 lead before WVU scored on a kickoff return and interception runback to make the final score closer than the game really was.