November 17 Sheet

East Carolina (-4) at West Virginia - 9:00am Pacific - ESPN
The Pirates were a 9-3 bowl team that was ranked as high as #9 last year and returned 15 starters this year. They stand at 6-3 right now having lost to Virginia Tech early in the season in a game that they were plagued by special teams woes, and the other two losses were very narrow ones to UAB and Memphis in games that they did not play near their best in. It appears that they have underachieved this year and they have gone relatively unnoticed since early in the season. However, they still have a shot at becoming C-USA champs and reaching an honorable bowl game. They came off their second BYE week of the season last week and throttled Houston 62-20 in what I think was really a statement game for them. They are as healthy right now as they have been all season and appear to be finally hitting their best stride. Head coach Steve Logan is known for his offense and for his quarterbacks. The offense is averaging 32ppg (24th in the nation) and QB David Garrard has thrown for 1,997 yards with 17 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. He is also a major threat to run the ball and clearly has NFL potential. His back-up Richard Alston is so good that he has taken snaps for 1-2 series per game but he is now out with an injury so Garrard is able to play through the entire game and not lose any continuity which I think serves him and the offense well. Ten different receivers have caught touchdown passes this season and 8 different receivers have caught passes for 40 yards or more. Backup RB Leonard Brown has filled in admirably in the absence of starter Jamie Wilson and boasts an average of 6.4ypc! This offense can really mix things up. Health was really an issue on the defensive front seven, but now everyone is back including leading tackler LB Pernell Griffin. Depth has improved since the injuries. The secondary was a question mark early in the season but has settled in nicely and now ranks 22nd nationally in pass defense. This unit pitched a shutout last week into the 4th quarter before allowing some garbage scores. Special teams have haunted ECU this year but they are improving. Kicker Kevin Miller has taken over punting duties since the Louisville game and has been solid. I believe West Virginia has been overrated all year. Last week they needed overtime to beat lowly Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights outgained the Mountaineers 450-to-278 and probably would have won the game if not for 6 turnovers, including one that was returned 49 yards for a WVU touchdown. West Virginia also has some key injuries on their front seven this week. NG Tim Love is out and DT Antwan Lake will either be out or hobbled. Meanwhile, LB Grant Wiley (neck) and LB David Carter (ankle) are listed as questionable. They also have their starting punter out and his backup listed as questionable with an ankle injury. The only knocks here are that WVU could be emotional for Don Nehlen's last home game and it will be ECU's first game on artificial turf this year. However, Nehlen got his 200th win last week and I get the feeling that this WVU team has already thrown in the towel. ECU did beat Army last year 33-14 in their only game on turf and they do need this win bad enough. ECU had a 496-327 yard advantage in last years meeting. Pirates are 10-5 ATS as a road favorite since 1993. Lay the small number.  East Carolina  1 UNIT

Stanford at California (-1) - 12:30pm Pacific
The Bears dealt us a bitter loss when we used them early in the season vs Washington State, however the bottom line was that they gift wrapped 18 of WSU's 21 points that day due to special teams mistakes. Take a closer look at Cal's last 5 games and its almost hard to believe your eyes. Starting on October 14, a huge overtime win over UCLA got this teams pulse going. The following week they took an 11 point lead into the 4th quarter at Washington before stumbling. Then three weeks ago they convincingly won at USC 28-16. Two weeks ago, they came closer to Oregon State than any other team has since early in the season as they trailed by only 2 points in the 4th quarter before eventually losing by just 6 points. Finally, last week they led Pac-10 leading Oregon by 5 points into the 4th quarter and the game was in Eugene where the Ducks have not lost in over 20 tries. That is enough for me to take notice. Their offense has really come out of the grave in recent weeks. Sophomore QB Boller threw for just 156.8ypg and 4 touchdowns in his first 5 games, but in his last five has averaged 228.4ypg and has thrown for 10 touchdowns. A big part of his success has been the emergence of sophomore WR Derek Swafford who did not play in the first three games of the season, did not catch a pass in the next two, but since has caught 20 passes for 314 yards in only 5 games. The Bears have lit up the scoreboard in their last two home games in which they put up 78 points combined. Six Cal starters will be playing in their final home game of their career including three top NFL draft prospects DE Andre Carter (11.5 sacks last 6 games), OL Reed Diehl (leader of offensive line), and DL Jacob Waasdorp (1st team Pac-10 last year, monster against the run). This will be their final opportunity to beat Stanford in the "Big Game" and bring "The Axe" home as the Cardinal have taken 5 straight in this series. Stanford got a nice win over Arizona State last week, but we all know where the Sun Devils rank in my book. Cal needs this win badly to build on for next season and to insure that coach Tom Holmoe will still be here. Along with the seniors, Holmoe has never beaten Stanford in three attempts. Under Holmoe, Cal is a solid 15-9 ATS off a straight up loss including three straight ATS covers this year in that situation. For the first time in six weeks, Cal will be facing an opponent that was not ranked in the top 10 at some point in the season. This is a young team that has improved throughout the season. Bears close out the year with a win.  California  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

Another sub par week for us.  East Carolina was out of it from the get go.  The cold weather combined with playing on artificial turf for the first time all season had them out of sync.  Cal suffered 5 turnovers and had two blocked punts in their overtime lose.  I must say we were on the right side of that one, but were just unlucky to lose.  The Bears had more first downs, yards, and time of possession in the loss.