November 17 Sheet

Utah (+7) at BYU - 4:00pm Pacific
The Utes may be the most overlooked team in the country right now.  Their only two losses of the season were at Oregon by 14 and at Colorado State by 2.  Against the #7 Ducks, Utah dominated time of possession and had almost equal first downs and total yardage but were burned by some big plays.  Against Colorado State, Utah dominated with over 120 more total yards and a 22-to-13 first down edge, but suffered two key turnovers, one at the goal line, and also had an 18 yard chip shot field goal blocked in the 2 point loss. 

Utah is one of the most physical teams I have watched on tape this year.  Their offensive and defensive lines are very strong.  They have a pair of bruising running backs in seniors Dameon Hunter (1,064 yards) & Adam Tate (615 yards).  They are 19th in the country with 205 rushing yards per game.  Their offense puts up a respectable 29.0ppg while dominating time of possession by an average of 7.25 minutes per game!  But, lets not try to fool anyone.  The strength of this team is their outstanding defense.  The Utes rank 8th in the country in scoring defense at 15.9ppg allowed.  This is unheard of for a MWC school and is despite the fact of playing two non-conference high powered offenses in Oregon & Indiana.

BYU has the #1 scoring offense in the country, but just to get a perspective of the competition they have played, Colorado State at #47 in the nation is the best scoring defense they have faced!  In fact the average national defensive ranking of BYU's 10 opponents is 86!  The Cougars are not going to be able to run the ball with much success here and as we saw vs New Mexico (only 24 points scored, starting RB Staley missed game, season low 107 rushing yards for team) their offense becomes very containable when it is one dimensional.  This makes the loss of leading WR Reno Mahe (twice more receptions and receiving yards than anyone on the team) to injury even bigger.  Meanwhile, the BYU defense gives up 5.1 yards per carry and 220 yards per game on the ground which both rank near the bottom of all Division 1 teams. They will be in big trouble if they have to stay on the field longer than they are accustomed to which is usually the case vs Utah as documented above. 

This is a big rivalry game as always in the state of Utah.  The Utes have a shot at sharing the MWC title with a win here and should land themselves in a nice bowl game in the process.  I would much rather take the more physical of the two teams when the two sides dislike each other as much as these two.  Not to mention the side with much more defensive presence.  Take the points and look for an outright win.  Utah  2 UNITS

Maryland (-3) at NC State - 4:45pm Pacific
It is time to give the Terrapins their overdue recognition.  They head into this game an almost perfect 9-1 overall.  Their only loss coming at Florida State in a game that was tied early in the 4th quarter.  They did not let that setback get the best of them as they came back last week to beat a very well playing Clemson team.  Maryland leads the ACC in scoring offense and is second in scoring defense.  The numbers do not lie, this team is flat out getting it done.  Head coach Ralph Friedgen in his first season gives the impression of a coach who can do anything.  He is the favorite right now for national coach of the year and deservedly so.  With a win here, Maryland will win the ACC outright for the first time in 16 years and most likely land themselves in a BCS bowl game.  Both things that would seem impossible at the start of the season from a team that had not even had a winning record since 1995. 

NC State is coming off a huge upset win at Florida State last week.  It was their head coach Chuck Amato's first time back to FSU after serving as an assistant there for 17 years.  Obviously, he had his team sky high for the game.  They capitalized on some key Seminole turnovers and also executed some trick plays at the right times to catch FSU off guard.  As good as a win as it was, it was just their first vs a team with a winning record all season.  I still cannot ignore the fact that they have been a very average football team both offensively and defensively all season.  They are sure to have some degree of letdown off of last weeks win which was more or less the season as far as Amato was concerned.  The team is already bowl eligible now and does not really have anything to play for other than spoiler to the Terps.  I just do not see the Wolfpack as a team capable of beating two top 10 teams in consecutive weeks.

With a chance to win the ACC championship and earn a BCS bowl berth, this is the biggest football game Maryland has had in many years.  This has been a special team and a special season for the Terps.  Our money is on Friedgen getting it done one more time.  Lay the small number.  Maryland  1 UNIT