November 10 Sheet

Iowa at Northwestern (+1) - 9:10am Pacific
Several people including myself felt this Northwestern team was a legitimate Big 10 title contender early in the year.  They stood at 4-1 with an offense that seemed unstoppable.  Three games later they are 4-4 and everyone is left wondering what in the world happened.  They were first shocked by a resurgent Penn State team 38-35, then lost a 5 point war at Purdue, and then were ambushed by an erratic Indiana team coming off a BYE last week.  Purdue started the game with a fumble return for a touchdown and even the Indiana debacle was not that bad as the Cats were only outgained by 49 yards and lost four turnovers. 

Northwestern simply came out flat last week.  Five of their eight first half drives went 3 and out, with the other three ending in turnovers.  This just does not happen to Northwestern's offense, nor does an Indiana defense ever have that much success.  Head coach Randy Walker is said to have been "breathing fire" all this week.  A players only meeting was held on Monday with a focus on giving more effort and playing with more emotion.  The seniors are said to have "raised the bar" this week and have taken it upon themselves to fire up the team.  The Cats must win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible making this even more of a must win game than it already was.  Northwestern has NEVER won a bowl game and that was one of the teams big goals at the start of the season.

The Hawkeyes are reeling themselves having lost four of their last five games.  They were booed off the field in their loss to Michigan after playing their hearts out.  They are amidst a QB controversy with senior Kyle McCann and JC transfer Brad Banks.  Neither of which are comparable to Northwestern's Zak Kustok.  The Hawkeyes are also hurting on the injury front.  In the secondary they are already without starting CB Matt Stockdale and could be without their best defensive player SS Bob Sanders (neck injury) this week.  Meanwhile, DE Howard Hodges is out for the season, and DT Jerry Montgomery (ankle) and DE Derrick Pickens are questionable for this game.  On offense Iowa will be without their best offensive lineman Alonzo Cunningham (out) and 2nd leading receiver TE Dallas Clark (doubtful).  Northwestern will be without starting RB Damien Anderson (shoulder) which is one reason why we are getting +1 instead of giving here.  However, backup RB Kevin Lawrence is a junior with some experience and ran for 77 yards on 13 carries last week, meanwhile QB Kustok averages over 50 yards rushing per game himself. 

Northwestern is 2-1 at home and Iowa is 0-3 on the road this year.  The Hawkeyes are 1-13 overall on the road under head coach Kirk Ferentz.  Northwestern will also be looking to avenge a 10 point loss at Iowa last year that cost them an outright Big 10 title and trip to the Rose Bowl.  Look for Northwestern to play with emotion and return to form this week.  Northwestern  1 UNIT

Oregon (pick) at UCLA - 12:30pm Pacific
There are not enough good things you can say about Mike Bellotti and this Oregon program.  Anyone calling them an underdog or even a dark horse is foolish.  They have been the Pac-10's most successful program in recent years, hands down.  They are doing it again this year with an almost perfect 8-1 record.  It could easily be 9-0 if not for blowing the 14 point lead vs Stanford.  They are a perfect 4-0 on the road.  QB Harrington has thrown for over 2,000 yards, has an incredible 22 to 5 TD to INT ration, and an impressive 145.2 QB rating.  Most importantly, he is now 22-3 straight up as a starter!  He would be getting much more Heisman talk if not for playing in the north west.  The Ducks also have maybe the best RB duo in the country with Ontario Smith (933 yards, 6.8ypc) and Maurice Morris (729, 5.2ypc) who returns this week from injury.  WR Keenan Howry is a tremendous all purpose threat.  Oregon is averaging 463 yards of offense per game and 37 points per game. 

UCLA's offense is not too shabby, averaging 396 yards and 30 points per game.  However, the Bruins will be without their best player, RB DeShaun Foster (ineligible), and their best WR Tad Perry who leads the team in receiving by almost 200 yards.  Meanwhile, QB Cory Paus is still recovering from thumb injury and is less than 100%.  UCLA only managed 14 points vs Washington State last week.  No matter how good the Bruins defense plays, they are going to have to score some points to compete with Oregon, and it is not going to be easy under these conditions.

Three weeks ago, the Bruins were talking national championship.  Since then not only have they lost two straight games but lose Mr. Everything DeShaun Foster for this game as well as top WR Perry for the season.  This is a team that has to be reeling right now and they are just 3-8 ATS after a straight up loss since 1998.  UCLA's defense did play well enough last week vs WSU but they also gave up 463 yards in the Stanford loss so they are not perfect.  On top of everything else, this is probably the best team UCLA has faced all season.  Oregon is simply a win machine.  The Ducks stay on track for a BCS game with another quality showing.  Oregon  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

We were way off on Northwestern as the Cats failed to show up yet again and were slaughtered by the Hawkeyes.  Oregon continued their winning ways with a close win over the struggling Bruins.