March 2002 - NCAA Basketball

March 2

NC State at Wake Forest (-5.5) - 11:00am Pacific
Looking for the Demon Deacons to end the season with a big win. They are probably NCAA tournament bound regardless of what happens the rest of the way, but I do not think they want to take any chances or risk landing an 8 or 9 seed which would mean playing a 1 seed in the second round. Wake has lost three straight but their one point loss at Maryland two games back shows they are capable of playing with anyone. That was forward Josh Howard's (2nd on team in scoring, 1st in rebounding, 3rd in assists, and 2nd in steals) first game back since missing 3 of 4 games due to injury. Last game they lost on the road to a red hot Georgia Tech team and prior to Maryland were beaten by Duke. The winner of this game will get the #3 seed in the ACC tournament and avoid a 1st round matchup with Virginia. It is also senior night for four Wake starters (Songalia, Hicks, Scott, and Dawson). Since early December, Virginia and Temple are the only two teams with a winning record that NC State has beaten. They are 4-4 in their last 8 games with not so impressive wins over struggling Virginia, UNC, Florida State, and Clemson. They trailed UNC by 10 at half-time in last game and have lost two straight on the road. Wolfpack do not have much to play for here and recent published reports have rumored head coach Sendek is off to TCU as his contract at State that ends next season has not yet been extended. Look for Deacs to win this in style. Wake Forest 2 UNITS

Cal at Arizona (-4) - 11:00am Pacific
The Wildcats own 6 wins over teams currently ranked in the top 25. They are clearly a very good team. They won at Cal by 10 earlier in the season despite committing 21 turnovers in the game. They should be able to do just as well if not better here at home. Arizona is coming off a close loss to Stanford on Thursday night and has lost three of four games overall (3 losses all vs ranked teams by a combined 11 points) so they should be focused for this. Arizona is 6-2 in games following a loss this season. In the Stanford game they were without the services of freshman guard Wil Bynum (19.9 minutes per game) who served a one game suspension for missing class. His return today will help. Cal is on a nice run winning 7 of their last 8 games but only three of those were played on the road and all three were against unranked teams (Washington State, Washington, Arizona State). They are only 4-5 on the road overall and just 1-2 in road games vs ranked opponents this season. That really should be 0-3 as a desperation three got them a win at USC. Cal was very fortunate in last game as ASU top player Prewitt was playing with an elbow injury suffered in practice and a 7 point possession during a key juncture of the 2nd half put Cal ahead for good. Their road luck runs out today. Under Lute Olson, Arizona is 15-2 at home vs Cal and is 13-5 in regular season finales. Wildcats come out with energy in their final home game and get a solid win. Arizona 1 UNIT

March 6

Providence vs Georgetown (-6) - 11:15am Pacific
It is no secret that Georgetown comes into this tournament a very dangerous team. Two 1 point losses and three overtime losses will kill a lot of teams spirits but the Hoyas have kept fighting and playing hard all season long. They ended the season with three impressive wins in a row: at Syracuse, at West Virginia, and vs Rutgers. Coach Craig Esherick does not deny that he loves the way his team is playing right now. Four players scored in double figures and the team recorded 23 assists in regular season finale, a 19 point win over Rutgers. G'town should control the boards here against an undersized Providence team who will probably again be without second leading rebounder Laska (missed last 3 games, questionable). The Friars are 1-5 in conference games away from home and 1-8 with a losing margin of 11.7 overall on the road this year. They have lost three straight games and 11 of 17 overall. Georgetown should cruise here with superior size and depth and senior point guard Braswell playing best basketball of his career. Georgetown  1 UNIT

March 7

Dayton vs St Joe's (-1) - 11:15am Pacific
The Red Hawks have to be considered one of the favorites to win this tournament. They played #1 seed Xavier very tough on the road and should have beaten #3 seed Temple in regular season finale at the Palestra. St. Joe's finished the season winning three of four games and the only loss was to Temple in a game they very much should have won. They blew a double digit lead and allowed Owls guard Greer to hit an off balance 3 at the buzzer to send the game in to OT. They were shorthanded in the OT's due to players fouling out and eventually lost in double overtime. These two teams just met a few weekends ago with St. Joe's winning by 2 points. They led that game by double digits for most of the way and were playing without starting point guard Jameer Nelson (attending funeral) who really makes them go. With Nelson back in the lineup, they should be able to again dispose of a Flyer team that is playing back to back games and does not pose a serious threat to win this tournament. Senior dominated Hawks advance. St. Joeseph's  1 UNIT

March 8

NC State vs Virginia (pick) - 11:15am Pacific
Cavaliers have not won a postseason game of any kind since 1995. They will be up for this one. Senior Adam Hall's recent return to action gives the team a nice boost. His talent adds depth but his experience and leadership is even more important. NC State swept the season series, making this a double revenge game for the Cavs, and we all know how hard it is to beat a good team three times in the same season. Most people believe that this is a must win for Virginia in order to get in the NCAA tournament. As we touched on last week, other than Temple at home & two games vs Virginia, NC State has not beaten a team with a winning record since early December. Cavs are the slightly better team, have momentum from the Duke win, and need this game more. Virginia  1 UNIT

UCSB vs UC Irvine (-1) - 8:15pm Pacific
This could be an easier game for the Anteaters than last nights win over Long Beach State. They have had good success against the Gauchos winning 4 straight in the series. Irvine star Jerry Green was quoted after last nights game saying that the team has never played with more intensity. UCSB is known for their stingy defense as they rank 3rd nationally in FG % allowed. However, four of their final five regular season opponents shot over 40% from the field and Irvine ranks first in the Big West in FG % shooting. Even with last nights win UCSB is just 7-8 in games away from home this year despite a less than demanding schedule. All five UCSB starters played at least 30 minutes last night, while only two did for UC Irvine. On top of that, UCSB had to play in the late game last night. Anteaters get one step closer to the elusive NCAA bid. UC Irvine 1 UNIT

March 9

Arizona vs USC (-2.5) - 3:10pm Pacific
I have thought for a while now that USC and Oregon are the Pac-10's two best teams. After slugging it out with the Ducks last night, USC looks to be in good position to take the Pac-10 tournament championship. Henry Bibby is finally getting simultaneous production from his three key seniors Clancy, Glanville, and Bluthenthal as well as his three athletic underclassmen Craven, Farmer, and DuPree. In fact, five of them scored in double figures in their opening round blowout win over Stanford, and all six of them scored in double figures last night vs Oregon. The Trojans are playing very, very well. The Staples Center crowd has been more welcoming than their regular home venue at the LA Sports Arena. Trojans are destined to win this tourney. USC 1 UNIT

March 13

St Bonnie (+6.5) at Syracuse - 4:00pm Pacific
Bonnies get a rare chance to face the Cuse in a game that will carry much regional interest and intensity. Despite close proximity, teams have only faced each other 8 times in last 20+ years. Bonnies did very well in their two games vs Big East teams this season beating NCAA tourney #2 seed UConn and leading Boston College for 2/3 of the game. Bonnies are in fact 3-2 vs teams in this years NCAA tournament. They are a respectable 7-7 away from home and 1st year head coach van Breda Kolff has a career 8-4 record in NIT play. Syracuse ended the season losing 4 straight games 9 of last 13 overall. Jim Boeheim himself admitted the team had not played more than 10 good consecutive minutes in a game in over a month. I see these two teams very even talent wise. Syracuse's home court advantage will be diminished by what will probably be a light crowd that includes a decent size of SBU fans. I just do not see the Orangemen being as up for this as the Bonnie's who play almost every game with great speed and intensity to begin with. Take the points here with a good chance of a straight up win occurring. St. Bonnie  1 UNIT

March 14

Miami, Fla vs Missouri (+1) - 9:40am Pacific
I really feel the Tigers are ready to put their best foot forward. They finished the season winning 3 of 5 games but the two losses (by 3 to Kansas, by 4 to Texas) were equally as impressive as the wins. With Clarence Gilbert, Kareem Rush, Ricky Paulding, Wesley Stokes, Arthur Johnson, and Travon Bryant, Missouri has the talent to play with anyone. Last year I felt they gave Duke one hell of a game (losing by 13) in the 2nd round after they beat Georgia on a last second shot displaying a high level of "tournament toughness" in both games. They have a team with the right ingredients to again make noise this year. How the Big East got in 6 teams, I will never know, but Miami finished 10-6 in a weak conference and went just 4-4 to close out the season. Far from stellar numbers. Almost as simple as Big 12 over Big East in this one. Missouri  1 UNIT

Montana vs Oregon (-20.5) - 2:07pm Pacific
This is a statement game for the Ducks. In there last three losses (at Cal in OT, at Stanford in OT, vs USC in Pac-10 Semi) they blew 2nd half leads in each. They will not take any chances here against a Montana team that really does not belong in this tournament. The Grizzlies had a very mediocre regular season, finishing 14-14 and 7-7 in conference play. They lost to 8 teams not ranked in the top 100 RPI and 3 teams not ranked in the top 200 RPI. If not for an improbable Big Sky tournament run they would not be here. My only question is why they are not a 16 seed instead of a 15. 13 of Oregon's 23 wins have been by 22 points or more. There depth is outstanding and there is very little drop-off from the starters to reserves. Oregon went 8-2 in the regular season vs the Pac-10's 5 other NCAA tournament teams. The two losses were both on the road in overtime in games they had late leads in. That says a lot about just how good they are. Ducks serve notice with a big win. Oregon  1 UNIT

Notre Dame vs Charlotte (pick) - 4:40pm Pacific
I really think you have to look at going against the Big East at every opportunity in this tournament. Other than maybe UConn, there does not seem to be a single Big East team that consistently plays well. Charlotte looks to be in fine shape here. Even though they are the #9 seed, they got a much more favorable draw here by being placed just two hours away in Greenville, S.C. Charlotte earned an RPI rank of 37 with a 22 strength of schedule. Notre Dame earned a 41 RPI with a 52 strength of schedule and even that is a bit inflated due to the Big East being overrated. The 49ers closed the season winning 11 of 16 games while the Irish won only 11 of 19. I like the way Charlotte matches up here as F/C Cam Stephens and guard Demon Brown can neutralize Irish top scorers Humphrey and Thomas respectively. 49ers have more depth and surrounding talent from there. I really have high regard for head coach Bobby Lutz who is 2-0 the last two seasons in first round NCAA tournament games. Irish forward David Graves (ankle) will play but is less than 100%. 49ers advance to play Duke. Charlotte 1 UNIT

UCSB vs Arizona (-13) - 7:40pm Pacific
The Wildcats have played the toughest schedule in America and in the process beat 12 RPI top 50 teams. Their tough early season schedule was even more difficult due to replacing 4 NBA seniors and relying on freshman for key minutes. They also were hurt by an early season injury to star Luke Walton that caused him to miss a few games. Down the stretch, Arizona has been awesome. They have won 14 of 19 games to end the season. Four of the five losses in that span came by 5 points or less and were vs ranked opponents. Luke Walton has emerged into a great all around impact player. Junior Jason Gardener is one of the better floor leaders in the nation. Freshman Salim Stoudamire is a future star, hands down. The Big West conference certainly had a down year with Irvine and Utah State both having disappointing seasons. The Big West ranked as the 18th best conference by RPI. UCSB only played two RPI top 50 teams all season going 1-1 (Loss at USC, win vs Pepperdine). They have not played any since December 8th. I watched UCSB vs Irvine in the Big West semis and both teams looked pretty bad. Lute Olson is a master in March and the Wildcats are red hot coming off their Pac-10 tourney championship. They will have plenty of fans make the trip to nearby New Mexico. I see them overmatching and overwhelming the Gauchos here. Arizona 1 UNIT

March 15

Michigan State vs NC State (-1) - 9:15am Pacific
It took me almost the entire season, but I am now a believer in the Wolfpack. Their ACC tournament wins over Virginia and Maryland were quite impressive. They appear to be playing with great teamwork and chemistry. Herb Sendek is a solid coach. Anthony Grundy (1st team all-ACC) and Archie Miller make up a quality all senior starting backcourt. My big knocks on Michigan State is there lack of experience (6 players gone from last years NCAA tourney team) and their questionable road play that really goes hand in hand. The Spartans were just 4-8 away from home and did not play very well in Big 10 tourney. It is fairly unlikely the Spartans will not play their best today. Wolfpack are playing closer to home and I have always loved ACC teams in the tourney. NC State  1 UNIT

St. John's vs Wisconsin (-1.5) - 4:40pm Pacific
Few teams are as hot as the Badgers heading into this tournament. They won 6 games in a row to end the regular season, including wins vs Ohio State, at Indiana, and at Minnesota. They played well in the Big 10 tournament as well but got beat 2 points late vs a hot Iowa team. The Badgers are extremely well coached by Bo Ryan who I touched on earlier this year. He is such a perfect fit here. Notre Dame played very well tonight, but I will continue to go against Big East teams. The Red Storm went 4-4 in their last 8 games and were very suspect away from home (2-8 last 10 road games). They looked very sloppy in the Big East tournament in my opinion. They almost could not get by Seton Hall in the 1st round and then were spanked vs Notre Dame by 20. They just shot 33% in both games. Badgers advance. Wisconsin  1 UNIT

Ole Miss vs UCLA (-1) - 7:05pm Pacific
As a Southern California resident, I understand completely how much pressure the Bruins and Steve Lavin are under here to win at least this first round game. They always seem to perform best under pressure and after losses. This year they are 7-3 after losses and a perfect 2-0 after 2 straight losses which is the case coming into this game. There is no question UCLA has an overall talent edge here, the only question is if they can play with heart and possess all the intangibles needed to win. They do have 4 key seniors on the roster as well as a well experienced junior in Jason Kapono. I really believe they will be ready to play their best basketball today. As much as I dislike Lavin, he is 9-5 in NCAA tournament play. Ole Miss stumbled down the stretch losing 6 of their final 9 games. They are another team who is very suspect on the road. The Rebels went 1-7 in their last 8 road games. Bruins outclass Rebels here. UCLA  1 UNIT

March 16

Wake Forest vs Oregon (-3.5) - 2:30pm Pacific
I have sung the praises of Oregon for a while now and nothing has changed my tune. In round one, the Ducks were slow from the start and uncharacteristically missed 13 free throws which caused them to narrowly miss the pointspread cover. I still firmly believe they are a serious final four contender. Wake is just not the same team without Josh Howard at 100% which he clearly was not in his 18 minutes (4-for-10) vs Pepperdine. He eventually had to be pulled in the second half because he was a liability on defense. Howard is normally a great defender (1st in steals, 2nd in blocks on team), great rebounder (tied for first on team), and a good scorer (2nd on team). No question Wake drops down a notch without him healthy. The Deacs were life and death to get by Pepperdine in round one and their tournament comes to a quick end today. Oregon  2 UNITS

Tulsa (+6) vs Kentucky - 2:30pm Pacific
The Golden Hurricane would have had a spectacular season if not for 3 losses to Hawaii who just seemed to have their number this year. Tulsa beat a very good Marquette team in round one and I really believe they simply have more heart than Kentucky right now. Anytime you put three talented and experienced guards on the floor like the trio of Harrington, Reed, and Swanson you are giving yourself a great chance to win. Meanwhile, leading scorer Kevin Johnson is undersized but an absolute warrior inside. All four mentioned average in double figures. 6-10 sophomore Ingram came off the bench and played well (9 points, 6 rebounds) in round one giving them some much needed size up front. Kentucky did away with Valpo easily in round one, but I am still not convinced everything is kosher with them. Recent double digit losses to Vanderbilt and South Carolina are very suspect. Take the points. Tulsa 1 UNIT

Wyoming (+8) vs Arizona - 2:45pm Pacific
Cowboys will be riding momentum from huge win over Gonzaga in round one. They played very well on both sides of the floor in beating one of the best teams in the West. I see no reason for a drop off today. They have great senior leadership and plenty of depth. Cowboys played 10 players and 8 of them scored on Thursday, while Arizona only played 8 with the starting 5 providing all of their points. This is a big factor with the higher elevation in New Mexico that left several players noticeably gasping in round one. Not only is Wyoming deeper, but they are much more used to the higher elevations. In addition to the host team being a Mountain West school, reports indicate that New Mexico fans have been lining up for tickets to boo Arizona due to the Cats pulling out of their home and away contract with the Lobos that have left local fans steaming. Cowboys possess experienced front-line with good size and strength that can pose problems for Zona. Wildcats just do not play good enough defense to give them a chance at an easy win here. Take the points. Wyoming  1 UNIT

March 17

Miss State vs Texas (-1) - 11:15am Pacific
The Big 12 (6-2 in tourney so far) seems like the hot conference so far. Texas has won four of five games and looked very impressive in opening round win over Boston College. Longhorns have really come together and are playing as a cohesive unit. I never though they could recover from the loss of star forward Owens early in the season, but they have done so with flying colors. Head coach Barnes and point guard T.J. Ford (leads nation in assists) have done terrific jobs. What makes this game most attractive is that Texas has at least a 3-4 point home court advantage here. The Dallas crowd was very biased in favor of the Longhorns in round one and will be even more so today. Miss State's recent quality wins over Florida and Alabama are not looking so good anymore. Bulldogs lost a key member of their rotation in 6-9 forward Igerski (thumb injury, doubtful, 22.8 minutes per game) and had to rally to get by McNeese State in round one. Longhorns advance behind biased crowd. Texas  1 UNIT

Oklahoma (-6) vs Xavier - 1:40pm Pacific
Sticking with the Big 12 theme here. Sooners are the cream of the crop. I feel they deserved a #1 seed as they beat Maryland, Kansas in the Big 12 championship, and won at UConn. They have all of the ingredients for success in tournament play. They have experience, play good defense, are well coached, get solid guard play, and are unselfish. You can tell that the players on this team get along well, root for each other, and like their coach. It is becoming more and more evident that the Atlantic 10 was down this year. I have felt for a while now that Xavier has had very few quality wins. They have been put on the ropes by Richmond and Hawaii in last two games but neither was able to deliver the knockout blow. Sooners should be able to deliver it today. Oklahoma  1 UNIT

March 20

Syracuse at Richmond (-1.5) - 6:30pm - NIT
This is turning into a special season for the Spiders. Most people thought they would struggle in their first year of Atlantic 10 conference play, but after starting the season 8-9 they have won 14 of their last 18 games! They are 10-1 last 11 at home with the only loss by 3 vs Xavier in a game that they blew a 15 point second half lead. Head coach John Beilein is in his 24th season of coaching and has now won 100 games in his first five seasons at Richmond. He is doing an outstanding job here. The Spiders do not always have the most talent on the court, but win because they have the best team on the court. Their win at Minnesota on Monday was very high quality. They only won by a point, but the game was in hand in the final minutes. Syracuse meanwhile has had the benefit of two NIT home games. They needed OT to knock off Butler on Monday and I do not see them coming with the necessary energy that will be needed to compete here. Spider fans are sure to be up for this one. Give the small number. Richmond  1 UNIT

March 21

Arizona vs Oklahoma (-3) - 4:55pm Pacific
I am convinced that the Sooners are the cream of the crop and are as capable as anyone to win the whole thing. They have flat out got it done this year as their 29-5 record indicates. Senior Aaron McGhee has had his share of bad games this year but has been sensational in two tournament games so far averaging 25.5ppg & 8.5rpg. When he is on, this team is almost unbeatable. Junior Hollis Price (16.4ppg) is a great leader and can certainly hold his own with Wildcat counterpart Jason Gardner. Zona freshman center Channing Frye has played lights out in two tournament games thus far, but did not have a single double digit scoring or rebounding effort in 8 final regular season games. As the stakes rise and playing against one of the most hard nosed teams in the country, Frye could easily wilt here. Arizona got a grand combined total of 3 points from their bench in the first two rounds. That is not going to cut it against a team of OU's caliber. The Sooners can score inside, score outside, rebound, and defend. No one is going to ever out hustle them or play tougher. They are the complete package. Sooners win, cover, and advance. Oklahoma  2 UNITS

Kent (pick) vs Pitt - 7:00pm Pacific
The Golden Flashes could not have been anymore impressive in the first two rounds. They beat both Oklahoma State and Alabama soundly. The two wins were anything but a fluke. This is a team that would be on a 25 game win streak if not for a 1 point loss at Buffalo in early January. Just for the record they beat Buffalo by 38 points in the rematch. The MAC year in and year out is a tough conference. Just look at Ball State who beat Kansas & UCLA earlier in the season and is still alive in the NIT. Kent beat them by 27 in their only meeting this year. I talked about Tulsa being a team that is difficult to match up with because of three very good and very quick guards, well Kent has a trio that is even playing better. Huffman, Mitchell, and Shaw are each good players on their own, but playing together they become great. They are all seniors and know each others every move so well. Shaw only averaged 6.9ppg on the season but has stepped up in a big way scoring 29 points in two tourney games so far. While Kent is senior dominated, Pitt's Chad Johnson (4.3ppg) is the only Panther senior who has a chance of playing tonight. I have not hesitated going against Big East teams thus far. Pitt was very fortunate to have a huge home court edge vs Cal in round 2. Had that game been on the West coast, Pitt could easily not be here. Golden Flash magic lasts another round. Kent State  1 UNIT

March 22

Texas vs Oregon (-3.5) -4:55pm Pacific
Looking to ride Oregon into the elite eight. The Oregon vs Wake Forest game last Saturday was one of the better college basketball games I can recall in recent memory. Wake really played a great game. They got a combined 21 points from reserves Levy & Downey who combined to average only 6.9ppg on the season. The Deacons shot a terrific 11-for-19 from 3-point range while for the most part being very well defended. I do not think Wake could have played any better. It really took some guts for the Ducks to pull out the win, but they did so with flying colors in the end. Texas had the luxury of playing the first two rounds in nearby Dallas and similar to Pitt yesterday probably would not even be here if they had not been aided by the home court advantage vs higher seeded Mississippi State. This is an extremely young Longhorns team with only one senior and one junior in their 9 man rotation, so not having the home crowd behind them could effect them more than most teams, especially in a game of such magnitude. The Ducks are just too well balanced offensively and shoot the ball too well. Texas does not have an answer for this type of offensive firepower. Ducks advance. Oregon  1 UNIT

March 24

Maryland vs UConn (+8.5) - 2:00pm Pacific
We have made a habit of going against the Big East in this tournament, but clearly the Huskies were and are the conferences best team. They have only lost 6 games all year, won the Big East tournament, and come into this on a twelve game win streak. This time of year you just have to love teams who play good defense and UConn ranks 4th in the nation in field goal percentage defense. They will have a crowd advantage playing in the East at a conference hosted venue. They have the advantage of having already played Maryland early in the season losing by only 12. Clearly this very young UConn team has improved more then the veteran Terp squad has since that meeting. The Huskies have players in well defined roles and as they say have "perfected each role" as the season progressed. Maryland is clearly a great team and will probably pull this one out but it will not be easy. Take the big number. UConn   1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

We are now 11-4-1 (73.3%) in this years NCAA Tournament as documented by GuruTracker.com.  We are now 28-15 (65.1%) the last three years combined in NCAA Tournament play.  We have also hit NINE 2 UNIT plays in a row!  We are now 60-50 & +11.6 UNITS overall for the season.  One hell of a comeback!  Thanks again to everyone who has stuck with us and supported us.