February 2002 - NCAA Basketball

February 1

South Florida (+4.5) at Louisville - 4:00pm Pacific
This is a key game for South Florida. They are 14-6 right now and have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way. Their only remaining game that they may be a slight underdog in is a home game vs Memphis. The Bulls have earlier non-conference wins over Cal and Pitt and still have high hopes to qualify for the NCAA tournament with an at-large birth. A win here would go a long way towards that. This is the last go around for USF's two best players Altron Jackson & BB Waldon who are both seniors and have one last chance to get that elusive NCAA birth. The team had an identical record at this point in the season last year and faltered down the stretch. With that bad taste still in their mouths I look for them to see to it that they finish this season strong. The Bulls have won three of their last four road games with the only loss coming at Memphis. Their athleticism should do them well vs Louisville's preferred up-tempo style. USF may have found a new weapon in center Will McDonald. He followed up a 28 point, 9 rebound game against Cincinnati with a 29 point, 13 rebound game vs Central Florida in last game. At 6-11, he will have at least a 3 inch height advantage on any Louisville player trying to guard him. The Cardinals not only lost starting point guard Carlos Hurt to a back injury for the season, but their tallest player Brandon Bender quit the team for lack of playing time about 10 days ago. The Cardinals have lost six of their last nine games and just played on the road at Memphis Wednesday night. Louisville has been a good home team this year. They have a 2-1 home record in conference games but both wins came vs TCU & Depaul who have a combined 2-14 record in C-USA games. Coach Rich Pitino himself admitted his team would not be in the NCAA tournament this year. Look for the Bulls to score a mild upset here. South Florida  1 UNIT

February 2

Syracuse at Rutgers (pick) - 4:30pm Pacific - Game 611-612
I had a chance to watch the Rutgers 61-53 win over UConn on Wednesday and really liked what I saw. This team is playing with a lot of confidence right now and with a 13-7 overall record (4-4 in Big East play) a win here could justify some NCAA tournament talk. Players insist this team is for real and plan to keep on winning to prove it. They have an outstanding trio of perimeter players in JC transfer Jerome Coleman (teams leading scorer at 15.8ppg), freshman Ricky Shields (very athletic, 11.1ppg) and sophomore Mike Sherrod (returning starter, 8.3ppg, 4.3apg). Coleman and Sherrod were teammates in high school. Senior Rashod Kent (10.1ppg, 9.8rpg) provides a solid inside presence. 6-10 sophomore Herve Lamizana (9.0ppg, 4.1rpg, and 3.2 blocks in just 20 minutes per game) was ineligible all of last year and for the first 8 games this season but is a very talented and versatile player who is starting to come on. This is a much different team than the one that lost by 21 at Syracuse on January 2nd. They are playing much improved basketball having won 3 of 4 conference games. They are also clearly a much better team at home posting a 10-1 record here at The Rac this year. This game is a sellout. Syracuse struggling right now having lost three straight on the road and three of four games overall with the only win coming over Virginia Tech. The Orangemen are expected to be without leader Preston Shumpert for the next two games due to an eye injury. Shumpert leads the team in scoring and minutes played and is second on the team in rebounding. Meanwhile, backup center Jeremy McNeil (14.7 minutes per game) has missed last two practices while contemplating quitting the team and is very questionable for this game. Look for the Scarlet Knights to notch another big win at home. Rutgers  1 UNIT

Alabama at LSU (+3.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game 615-616
I am expecting a big performance from LSU tonight. They are only 2-5 in SEC play but have had to play 4 of their first 7 on the road. They have won 2 out of 3 SEC games at home despite losing a 3 point heartbreaker to Tennessee here on Wednesday. They had every opportunity to win the game but could not get any shots to fall in the final 10 minutes. Junior forward Collis Temple, the teams second leading rebounder and scorer has been battling a tendon injury. He missed the game at Ole Miss and has not been himself in last two games shooting 1-for-10 from behind the arc. He should be closer to 100% today. LSU has a lot to play for today. They are looking to snap a 3 game losing streak and will be seeking to avenge 3 straight losses to Alabama. In last years game here, both LSU coach John Brady and Alabama guard Grizzard were reprimanded by the SEC for what were called "post game antics" as the teams had a minor scuffle and war of words. In the first meeting at Alabama this year, LSU led deep into the game and by 8 with 4 minutes left before losing by 2 in the end. The home court differential should be enough to put them in the winners circle today. Alabama is coming off a high scoring home win over Arkansas in last game. That was a double revenge game for the Tide and they were really up for the game. They are going to face an entirely different low scoring defensive struggle here today. Tide have won 2 straight road games but their prior troubles on the road in SEC play are well documented. I look for them to slip up here against an underrated Tigers team. Take the points. LSU  1 UNIT

February 3

Notre Dame at Seton Hall (+1) - 9:00am Pacific
The Pirates just visited South Bend on January 26th. They led at halftime and lost by just 9 points despite shooting just 29% for the game. Starting guards Andre Barett and Darius Lane shot a combined 4-for-23 for a total of 12 points in that game. For the season they are averaging 17.1ppg and 12.4ppg respectively. Seton Hall has won 5 of their last 9 games, but has not been able to win two straight since December. They will get a good chance to do that today as well as move over .500 in conference play. Notre Dame is on my current list of go against teams. The Irish were really having trouble scoring points prior to last game vs Pitt in which they shot an uncanny 66.7% from the field and led by 28 at halftime. Prior to that game, senior forward David Graves had been in a 6 game (17-for-63) shooting slump causing him to lose his starting job. Despite the big Pitt win, I do not think Notre Dame is all there right now and is not ready to win on the road. Pirates just need to play a solid game to take this one. Seton Hall 1 UNIT

Virginia at Missouri (-3) - 11:00am Pacific
The Tigers are sure to be fired up for this game. Virginia comes in as a top 10 team and this has been a fierce series in recent years. Furthermore, Missouri is coming off a 32 point loss at Kansas. Senior guard Clarence Gilbert has spoken out about the teams pride and importance of wearing the jersey, etc. They are sure to come out focused today and there is no questioning their talent and ability to beat anyone here at home. Virginia comes in having lost two straight games to Duke and Maryland. They led the Terps by 9 with under 4:00 to play in last game and collapsed at home. It is anyone's guess how they will come out today but anything less then their A game will spell defeat. The Cavs have just had too many suspect performances this year and were taken to the wire by ACC worst North Carolina and Georgia Tech in their only two conference road wins. They were beaten soundly at Clemson. The Tigers will not be denied today. Missouri  1 UNIT

February 5

Florida (-3.5) at South Carolina - 4:00pm Pacific
After winning 14 straight games, the Gators faced a little adversity as they lost three in a row including two in a row at home. On the bright side they were without senior point guard Justin Hamilton for one game (separated shoulder) and he and center Udonis Haslem were suffering from the flu in another. Florida lost all three games by a combined 9 points so its not like anyone was showing them the door. After doing some soul searching I felt the team played a great 2nd half against Kentucky but the Wildcats just made some incredible shots at the end of the game to steal a 2 point win. The Gators then came back and thrashed Mississippi State by 28 points in their last game. I feel they are now ready to reassert themselves to the top of the SEC. In the first meeting between these two in Gainesville, Florida only won by 9 but that is a bit misleading because they led by 19 with 4 minutes to play despite turning the ball over 22 times. Florida is 5-2 away from home this season with their only conference road loss coming at Arkansas by 2 points in overtime in a game they should have won in regulation. South Carolina comes in with just a 3-5 conference record and only a 1-2 conference home record. They are coming off a sound defeat at Kentucky and appeared to be intimidated by the Gators in first meeting. It is important for Florida to win tonight as they face the toughest remaining schedule (5 of final 8 on the road) of any of the SEC title contenders. Gators start another win streak. Florida  1 UNIT

Providence at UConn (-8.5) - 6:00pm Pacific
UConn is very good team that is not getting enough attention. They had won 8 of 9 games before their recent 2 game losing streak. In that span their only loss came by 2 points to Oklahoma and they had road wins over Villanova, Providence, and Arizona. Despite their youth, Jim Calhoun has said from the outset that he loves his team this year. It was expected that they would have a little letdown making a cross country trip after beating Arizona in overtime and they fell to a very well playing Rutgers team on the road. They then played an outstanding game at Miami, Fla that went right down to the wire before losing by 2. They were a perfect 6-0 in conference play prior to those two losses and will surely be focused for this one as they return home tonight and look to break the losing streak. Providence is 13-10 overall and just 2-6 on the road. They are clearly overmatched here and I expect this one to be decided at halftime. Give the points. UConn  1 UNIT

February 6

Georgia Tech (+4) at Clemson - 4:00pm Pacific
Tech second year head coach Paul Hewitt did a great job with last year getting the most he could out of an underachieving team and taking them to the NCAA tournament. This year he is doing another fine job with an extremely young group. I really like the way the Yellow Jackets are playing right now. They were 0-7 in ACC play but have broken out in a big way with a 31 point win over Florida State and a 12 point win over North Carolina. In their last two games Georgia Tech has recorded 37 assists to just 19 turnovers. That is good basketball. This team is only getting better and I feel they will be a tough out for anyone the rest of the season. Clemson won the initial meeting between these two in the ACC opener for both teams January 5th. In that game the Tigers shot 58% compared to GT's 38%, yet Clemson only won by 7 points. I think the Yellow Jackets will show tonight how much they have improved since that game and turn the tables. Clemson is on a six game losing streak that includes an 18 point home loss to North Carolina two games back. The wrong team is favored here. Georgia Tech 1 UNIT

Ohio State at Wisconsin (+1.5) - 5:00pm Pacific
First year head coach Bo Ryan could not have been a better fit to take over the Wisconsin program and those close to the team have given him rave reviews. I myself have also been impressed with what I have seen and heard from him. Before their recent two game slide, Wisconsin was the darling of the Big 10. They had won 5 out of 7 games including wins vs Illinois and at Michigan State breaking the Spartans home court streak. Things have calmed down a little as the Badgers were beaten at Northwestern and at Michigan last week. Frankly, there is not too much shame in losing two Big 10 road games and now Wisconsin returns home where they have been almost unbeatable this year. They are 8-1 at home with the only loss coming early in the season in overtime to Temple. They have won 8 straight since. If Ryan is as good of a coach as I think he is, he will have his team ready to bounce back with a big win tonight. Ohio State has only played three of their nine Big 10 games on the road, and have only played five road games the entire season. They have not won on the road since January 12th at Northwestern. They were beaten by 18 in their last road game at Minnesota. Ohio State was very fortunate to escape with a one point home win over Northwestern in last game on Saturday. They had to rally to take the lead in the final minute with the help of some favorable officiating. I do not think Ohio State is playing their best basketball right now. Badgers in a mild upset. Wisconsin 1 UNIT

February 7

Illinois at Michigan (+7.5) - 4:00pm Pacific
The Wolverines are in a good spot here. They are amidst a three game homestand and have not had to travel for over a week. They are coming off their most well played game of the season, a 64-53 win over Wisconsin that really was not even that close. In that game they got balanced scoring from their big three, Bernard Robinson (18), Chris Young (16), and LaVell Blanchard (13). Michigan is now 3-1 at home in Big 10 play and appear to be heading in the right direction under Tommy Amaker. Illinois comes in with the look on paper of a desperate team, but they have already lost too many "must win" games in my opinion. Their last three games were all called critical, each more than the next, and they lost all three of them. They are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and really have not even come close in any of them. People have criticized Frank Williams for having his mind on the NBA and the rest of the team for not playing with any intensity. Fact is, they just might not be as good as everyone thought. Forward Krupalija is out with a stress fracture and forward Lucas Johnson has yet to make any impact since returning from his injury. Counting the two starters they lost from last year they are only left with 5 healthy players from last years 9 man rotation. Wolverines will be up for this home game and at least keep it close. Take the points. Michigan  1 UNIT

February 9

UConn (pick) at St. John's - 4:00pm Pacific - Game 579-580
I am becoming more and more a firm believer that the Huskies are the Big East's top team. They are now 7-2 in conference play and both losses (at Rutgers after overtime win at Arizona, and at Miami by 2 points) can easily be excused. They responded from their two game losing streak like a quality team should by crushing Providence in last game. This team has that all important chemistry and as I mentioned in previous analysis, head coach Calhoun has been very high on this team since the beginning of the season. The Huskies took a good shot from the Red Storm winning by 5 on January 23. Huskies did not play their best in that game and should be better prepared this time around. St. John's has lost three of their last four conference games with the only win a come from behind effort vs Virginia Tech. In first game vs UConn, Willie Shaw, Alpha Bangura, and Abe Keita combined to play 56 minutes. Bangura is expected to miss today due to personal reasons, while Shaw & Keita are listed as "?" with injuries. Expect Huskies to notch another solid win here. UConn  1 UNIT

Virginia Tech (+10.5) at Providence - 4:30pm Pacific - Game 603-604
After knocking on the door several times, the Hokies finally broke through with their first conference win of the season over Boston College on Wednesday. They have been playing improved basketball of late and I like their available talent. They seem to have finally settled on a starting five of Carlton Carter, Brian Chase, Carlos Dixon, Terry Taylor, and Bryant Matthews. The team is now 6-4 when these five start compared to 1-11 with other lineup variations. The Hokies outrebound their opponents by a +7.2 margin per game compared to the Friars who are -2.3 per game giving Tech a tremendous advantage on the boards here. Last year Providence swept the season series including an embarrassing 40 point win here that the Hokies have surely not forgotten. In ten Big East games this season, Virginia Tech has only lost by more than 12 once (at UConn). Providence is coming off a bad loss at UConn in which they trailed 33-11 at halftime. They have now lost 7 of their last 11 games overall. Friars leading scorer Abdul Mills (groin injury) is listed as questionable tonight. Providence has no business giving any conference opponent double digits. Take the points and expect a close game. Virginia Tech  1 UNIT

Utah State at UC Irvine (-2.5) - 7:05pm Pacific - Game 655-656
It is amazing to me that a big name program has not swooped in and snagged UCI head coach Pat Douglass. He won three Division II national championships at CS-Bakersfield earning himself Division II coach of the decade. He has now taken UC Irvine from almost nowhere to back to back years atop the Big West. He has brought the Anteaters back from more double digit half-time deficits in the past two seasons than most teams come back from in decades. This guy can flat out coach and can flat out win. Behind Douglass, the Big West's best coach, and guard Jerry Green, the Big West's best player, UCI has a conference regular season record of 25-3 dating back to last year. They have won 12 of their last 14 games this year with the two losses coming by a combined 4 points. This team is not much different from last years magical team. They lost three starters but have filled the missing components in nicely while returning superstar Green (20.6ppg) and best inside player Adam Parada (7 footer, 12.9ppg, 6.7rpg) have only gotten better. Utah State lost here last year and only return 1 starter. Aggies do not have nearly the same talent or chemistry as last years squad. They have lost at Cal Poly by 4 and at Northridge by 14, with UCSB being the only team with a winning record that they have beaten on the road. Look for Irvine to get another key win here and give themselves a two game cushion in the Big West regular season race. UC Irvine  1 UNIT

February 13

Colorado at Iowa State (-1.5) - 6:00pm Pacific
This looks to be a great spot for a well rested Cyclone team to snap their 8 game losing streak. I still believe Iowa State is much better than their 1-9 conference record indicates. They have only played 4 conference home games and only a two point loss to Texas A&M here could be considered a bad performance. The three others were all vs ranked teams: Missouri (WIN), Kansas (lost by 7, very close game), and Oklahoma State (lost by 3). In last game ISU showed they have not yet thrown in the towel this season by nearly upsetting Missouri on the road despite the Tigers playing with revenge. The Cyclones shot 59% from the field and led almost the entire game before losing by 3. ISU had a similar performance at Colorado earlier this year. They led most of the game only to see CU make a furious rally and win on a last second shot. They will be seeking to avenge that loss tonight and also end their dreadful 8 game skid. Head coach Larry Eustachy is not going to let this team give up. They have had a full week off to ready themselves for this game. Colorado is 1-7 on the road this year, and 0-5 on the road in Big 12 play with an average losing margin of 13.6 points. The closest they have come is an 8 point road loss at Nebraska. Cyclones send the Hilton Coliseum fans home happy tonight. Iowa State  2 UNITS

St. Joseph's at Richmond (pick) - 4:30pm Pacific
I have to admit I was not a believer in this Richmond team to start the season, but I am now. They have put together an impressive six game run going 5-1 with the only loss a 3 point heartbreaker to Xavier in a game that they had controlled throughout before blowing a double digit 2nd half lead. The Spiders have won convincingly on the road at Temple and at St. Bonnie in recent weeks. In last game they led and beat a good Dayton team from start to finish. They are now 5-1 at home in conference play. St. Joe's has been sluggish all season and is just 3-3 in its last 6 games. A 6 point home win over St. Bonnie on January 13th is their only win over a team with a winning record since mid-December. They have dropped 3 of their last 4 games on the road with the only win coming vs Fordham in which the Rams were without two players. Reserve center Alexandre Sazonov is listed as "?" for tonight which hurts their depth if he cannot go. Look for the Spiders to win another one at home. Richmond  1 UNIT

February 16

Georgetown (-1) at Villanova - 9:00am Pacific - First Union Center
I am looking for the Hoyas to finish the season strong. They have been playing better than looked basketball in recent weeks. They are currently on a 6-3 run with their only losses coming by 1 point vs division leader Pitt, to Pitt again on the road by 9, and to Notre Dame in 4 OT's two games back. They were able to bounce back from the draining 4 OT loss with a nice road win at Seton Hall last time out. The Hoyas blew a 16 point first half lead and fell behind by as many as 10 in the 2nd half. They overcame that as well as leading scorer Mike Sweetney's season worst 1-for-7 shooting to come back and win by 7 in the end. It was really a solid display of the teams heart. Georgetown still has hopes of an NCAA at-large birth and needs every win they can get. Villanova meanwhile has gone just 4-7 since starting the season 9-2. They have lost 7 of their last 9 conference games and a one point win over UCLA is their only victory in last four games. The Cats are coming off an ugly game at UConn in which they only managed 40 points and did not score a single field goal in the final 7:30. This game will be held at the First Union Center and not the on campus Pavilion. Nova is 0-1 so far this season here. I see Georgetown with advantages in both the backcourt and frontcourt. Hoyas have won three of their last four road games and are good enough to win on the road here. Georgetown  1 UNIT

Kentucky (-4) at Georgia - 10:00am Pacific
The Wildcats have gone on an impressive 8-2 run since losing at home to Georgia January 9th. In that span their only two losses came by 3 points to Alabama and by 2 points in overtime at Tennessee. They have been solid on the road winning five of their last six including wins at South Carolina, Notre Dame, and Florida. This looks to be a perfect opportunity to payback the Bulldogs for the earlier loss. Georgia meanwhile just cannot catch a break. Since winning at Kentucky they have posted a 5-5 record, losing 4 of their last 6. Point guard Tony Cole has been kicked off the team, F/C Steve Thomas has served a suspension for an alleged rape incident and missed last game due to a one game suspension for fighting, leading scorer Ezra Williams tragically lost his brother to a gun shot wound last weekend and was at the funeral on Thursday, and finally leading rebounder and third leading scorer Chris Daniels will sit out the first half of this game due to a disciplinary infraction. This team has been through too much in the last month. It is anyone's guess what kind of state of mind they may be in heading into this. They are coming off two straight losses and are 0-2 vs ranked opponents at home this season. Expect the Wildcats to win and cover. Kentucky  1 UNIT

LSU at Arkansas (-8) - 12:00 noon Pacific
The Hogs have been a hard team to figure out in recent weeks but I believe they are ready for a solid effort today. Coaches, fans, and players are still angry about the earlier in the season loss at LSU in which the Razorbacks blew a 13 point second half lead. That loss started a four game losing streak and a 7 of 9 skid that has Arkansas where are they today, in must win mode. The big problem has been poor shooting, Arkansas ranks 10th in the SEC in field goal percentage, but it is only a matter of time before they regain their shooting touch. Leading scorer Janeero Pargo did not start and only played 21 minutes in last game vs Tennessee due to tendinitis in his knee, but should be ready to go today. The Razorbacks have been getting great play out of true freshman JJ Sullingner and football QB Matt Jones just joined the team six games ago and has already started in a few games. It is only a matter of time before Nolan Richardson hits the right buttons and gets this team going. LSU has lost of 6 of its last 7 games but has been even worse on the road this season going 0-5 in conference and 0-6 overall with a loss to Sun Belt foe New Orleans included. Second leading scorer & rebounder Collis Temple has missed last two games and remains doubtful for this. He scored 21 points in the first meeting between these two and will be sorely missed. LSU reserve center Thomas Davis (did not practice Thursday) missed last game and is "?" today which leaves the Tigers with no more than 5 or 6 SEC quality players if he cannot go. LSU is coming off an overtime win over Miss State on Wednesday in which the starting 5 played 85% of the 225 possible minutes and it would have been even higher if starting center Bridgewater had not fouled out. That is not going to get it done vs a Razorback team that goes 10-11 deep regularly. Sagarin ratings give Arkansas the 9th toughest schedule in the country compared to LSU at 98th. Expect a double digit win here. Arkansas  1 UNIT

February 19

Villanova at Providence (-4.5) - 4:30pm Pacific
This looks like a great spot for the Friars. They come in well rested having not played in 6 days. It is just their third game in 10 days while it is Villanova's fourth game in 10 days. Providence needs two more wins to become eligible for the NIT. It is also a revenge game for them as they lost at Villanova earlier in the season. Providence has won 4 of 5 here at home with only loss coming vs UConn. Villanova meanwhile has lost four straight road games. Friars head coach Tim Welsh said this week that he feels his team can play with anyone in the conference, they just need to show it. Villanova coach Jay Wright is already talking about needing to prepare for the Big East tournament as it is their only way to get in the big dance. Providence ball hawker John Linehan only has a few home games left and he is sure to give the turnover prone Villanova backcourt fits tonight. Look for the Friars to win this going away. Providence  1 UNIT

February 20

Purdue at Northwestern (-3) - 6:00pm Pacific
Hard to figure out this spread. Few teams have played as well as the Wildcats in the past month. Northwestern has won 7 of its last 10 games. Two of the losses were by just 1 at Ohio State, and by just 2 at Purdue earlier this year. In the previous meeting vs Purdue, Northwestern battled back from a 15 point deficit to take a 3 point lead in the final minutes before losing. The Wildcats should be able to turn the tables tonight just with the home court advantage differential by itself. Northwestern is 9-2 at home this year and their 6-6 record in conference play is their best start in over 20 years. Fans and media are starting to give this team attention it has not seen in years. A first ever NCAA tournament bid is not out of the question if they can keep on winning. Northwestern ranks 1st in the Big 10 in scoring defense, 2nd in FG% allowed, and 1st in turnover margin. Purdue ranks 11th, 10th, and 6th respectively in each category. The Boilermakers are a dismal 0-6 on the road in Big 10 play. They have lost four of last five overall, and seven of last ten. Wildcats are coming off a solid road win at Penn State despite their floor leader Young only playing 12 minutes due to a mild ankle injury. He is expected to be fine tonight. Former Princeton coach Bill Carmody's is doing a great job here. His system took some time to put in place but it is now working well. Coach says team is united and playing hard. I would be surprised if this game was close. Northwestern  2 UNITS

N.C. State at Georgia Tech (+1.5) - 6:00pm Pacific
The Yellow Jackets continue to play well. They have won 4 of their last 6 games including two double digit road wins at Clemson and at St. Louis, both of which are not the easiest places to play. Tech has not lost to a team ranked below #15 since their January 19 loss at NC State. That game was the first time I got a glimpse of what this team was capable of as they led the Wolfpack on the road by 7 at half-time and by as much as 11 in the 2nd half. NC State came back with a furious rally that was fueled by turnovers and a raucous home crowd. Georgia Tech has only gotten better since that game and the Wolfpack will not have the home crowd to fall back on tonight. NC State has gone just 3-3 in their last six. Their last two wins came vs ACC cellar dwellers Clemson and Florida State. I have felt that the Wolfpack have been overrated for a while now and finally have a good spot to go against them. Georgia Tech is 1-10 when they get outrebounded and 10-5 when they outrebound their opponent. NC State comes in ranking only ahead of UNC in the ACC in rebounding margin at +0.4 per game. GT is two spots ahead at +1.8 per game. Yellow Jackets get another big home win tonight. Georgia Tech  2 UNITS

February 21

Washington (+4) at Oregon State - 7:00pm Pacific
The Huskies are coming off probably their best game of the season, a 75-60 win over Cal last Saturday. They beat the Bears by double digits despite a season worst 1-for-9, 6 point performance from leading scorer Doug Wrenn (20.0ppg average). This goes to show that they have many capable players. RPI rankings indicate the Huskies have played the 6th most difficult schedule in the country. Now is the time of year that difficult schedule may begin to payoff. The Huskies certainly have a lot more upside to them right now than the Beavers. Each team has won three conference games, but the Huskies own wins over Oregon & Cal while all of OSU's wins have come vs Arizona State, Washington, and Washington State. The Beavers have lost 5 straight conference games. In their lone three Pac-10 wins, starters Brian Jackson (2nd on team in scoring) & Jimmie Haywood (3rd on team in scoring) accounted for a combined 59.3 minutes played and 24.3 points scored per game. Both players have left the team with intentions to transfer in the past week. This is a significant blow to an already struggling team. Only the top 8 teams in the conference play in the Pac-10 tournament which means the winner of this game will probably get the last slot. The Huskies have that to play for in addition to revenge for the earlier season home loss to the Beavers. Take the points. Washington  1 UNIT

February 23

Dayton at St. Joseph's (-2) - 11:00am Pacific
The Red Hawks have had a disappointing season filled with injuries, illnesses, and inexplicable losses, but I feel this team has a lot of life left in them. They still have the A-10's 2nd best conference record at 10-3 and Phil Martelli is a top notch coach. After two hard fought road losses at Richmond (6-1 at home in A-10 games) by 2 and at Xavier (6-0 at home in A-10 games) by 7, SJU came back with a lot of effort in beating UMass 72-67 on Tuesday. Leading scorer Marvin O'Connor (food poisoning) missed the game but the Hawks simply outhustled the Minutemen (SJU held a 40-22 rebounding edge) and got the win. Today is senior day for SJU and at least a similar level of intensity can be expected. Four 5th year seniors Naim Crenshaw, Marvin O'Connor, Bill Philips, and Damian Reid will be playing in their final home game and all will be honored in pregame festivities. Each of the four will end their careers with over 1,000 points and will go down as the most prolific offensive class is SJU's 93 year history. The Hawks are 8-1 at the fieldhouse this season with the only loss coming in a very tight game vs Gonzaga. They are 19-1 here over the past two seasons and have won 13 straight A-10 home games. Dayton is 4-2 on the road in A-10 play this season but none of their wins came vs a team with a winning record and we all know the Flyers are a much better team at home. Amazingly, Dayton is just 2-7 this year vs teams with a winning record. Home wins over Moorhead State and Richmond account for their only two victories against above .500 teams. Dayton is coming off a big 30 point win at GW. It was a homecoming for Flyer point guard David Morris who is from the DC area and wanted to play well. It was the 10th straight loss for the Colonials which says very little for the win. Dayton will find a completely different quality of opponent coming at them today. Hawks win comfortably. St. Joseph's  2 UNITS

Notre Dame at Miami, Fla (-4.5) - 4:30pm Pacific
Important home game for the Hurricanes as both teams are tied at 8-5 in conference play. I really think Miami is the better team here and playing at home should enable them to cover this number. Miami along with Arizona are the only two ranked teams to have all five starters averaging double figures in scoring. That balanced offense says a lot. Miami is currently 13-1 at home this season. They are also 21-5 (.821) in all February games over the last three seasons. Hurricanes have had 6 days off since a narrow loss at Rutgers last Sunday to rest and prepare for this game. They will be fresh and focused. Notre Dame conversely will be playing its 4th game in 10 days. The Irish are 4-2 in Big East road games but that figure is very misleading considering their 5 point 4 OT win at Georgetown was their largest margin of victory in any of the four road wins. Their conference road record could very easily be 0-6. Just ask G'town (4 OT's), Pitt (Panthers led by 5 with 2:43 left), Seton Hall (game winning breakaway layup in final seconds to win by 2), and West Virginia (came back from 15 point half-time deficit). Meanwhile, Irish starting guard Matt Carroll (32.2 minutes, 12.9 points per game) left last game with a strained foot. He is expected to make the trip to Miami but is very questionable to play. His experience will be sorely missed if he is unable to go. Hurricanes win and cover. Miami, Fla  1 UNIT

February 27

Notre Dame at St. John's (-1) - 4:30pm Pacific
Willing to take my chances going against ND one more time. This is a key game for the Red Storm as a win here will put them in the drivers seat for an at-large NCAA bid. They are an impressive 13-1 at home this year with wins over Wake Forest, Miami, Fla, and UConn. Junior guard Marcus Hatten has thrived of late averaging 23.6ppg in his last 5 games. He is also a great defensive stopper (3.25 per game is 5th in the country) and should slow down ND's conference rookie of the year candidate Chris Thomas (had 32 in win over Miami Saturday). Freshman forward Eric King has also surged recently with a 9.1 points & 4.1 rebounds per game in last 7. He earned a starting job in mid-December and has not relinquished it. The Irish are coming off a big win at Miami that all but guaranteed them an NCAA tournament birth. This will be the fourth time this season the Irish will be playing their second consecutive road game following a road win and they are 0-3 on in three prior spots. I look for them to have a similar letdown here. ND starting guard Carroll (12.9ppg) missed last game and is very questionable again tonight. He averages 32 minutes per game and his absence or even his return at less than 100% cannot be a good thing. Red Storm's turn to shine tonight. St. John's  1 UNIT

February 28

St. Joseph's (+3) at St. Bonnie - 5:00pm Pacific
I am still very high on this Red Hawks team. They have now won four of their last six games with the only losses coming at Richmond and at Xavier both by narrow margins. The team boasts one of the best backcourts in the country in sophomore Jameer Nelson (13.6ppg, 4.8rpg, 6.4apg) and Marvin O'Connor (18.4ppg, 3.7rpg, 2.5apg). However, this savvy backcourt duo has had to play without a component in each of the last two games. Leading scorer O'Connor (food poisoning) was a late scratch two games ago in a win over UMass, and unfortunately for us point guard Nelson was a late scratch in Saturday's win over Dayton due to a death in the family. They will be reunited this evening. St Joe's won the first meeting by 6 points as they shot 58% for the game and 72% from inside the 3-point arc. St. Bonnie is just 4-4 last 8 and just 2-2 last 4 at home. Red Hawks need the win to hold on to first place in the A-10 east. Take the points. St. Joseph's  1 UNIT

Oregon (+3.5) at USC - 7:30pm Pacific
Back in early January we sung the praises of Oregon like there was no tomorrow. They promptly lost to Arizona State as our 2 UNIT play but since then have won 10 out of 13 games. Two of the losses coming in overtime at Stanford and in double overtime at Cal in successive games. The wrap on this team is that they cannot win on the road, but I feel the blowout win at Arizona along with the two overtime road losses mentioned above proves they are more than capable away from home. The Ducks have been looking forward to this game for a while as their last three games have been relatively easy at home. Oregon is currently in sole possession of first place in the Pac-10 standings and a win tonight would clinch their first conference title in 57 years. USC got a big win at Stanford then was blown out at Cal over the weekend. The big Stanford win lost a bit of its luster when UCLA (10.5 point underdog) without Barnes beat Stanford two days later. The Trojans are without center Charissis for probably the rest of the season. Point guard Granville missed Wednesday's practice with an illness. Reserve forward Dupree was kicked out of a team meeting on Tuesday for lack of focus. Leading scorer Clancy was taken off the Wooden Award finalist list due to a 1.9 GPA. USC has not been getting much bench support, which is one of Oregon's strengths. Look for the Ducks to break though tonight. Oregon  1 UNIT