August 25, 2001 Sheet

Virginia (+10.5) at Wisconsin - Saturday - 11:00am Pacific
Cavalier faithful could not be much happier with the selection of their new head coach Al Groh. Not only do they get someone who is a UVA graduate with previous college head coaching experience but also get a guy who head coached an NFL team (NY Jets) to a winning record just last season. Having come from the NFL, Groh commands immediate respect and the relationship between the new coaching staff and players over the summer has been described as a "love-affair" by one publication. 

Virginia blew a double digit second half lead in their season opener vs BYU last year in a game that they definitely should have won. From that point on they won 6 of 10 regular season games with the only four losses coming against top notch opponents (vs Clemson, at Georgia Tech, at Florida State, at Virginia Tech) with a combined regular season record of 39-6! In the process they earned a bowl bid despite playing 3+ games without senior QB Dan Ellis who also missed all but the first series of the teams bowl game. Virginia was a better team than most people gave them credit for last year, the bowl game allowed for extra practice time for younger players to develop, and the QB injury gave then freshman QB Bryson Spinner three valuable starts as well as extensive action in two other games. His numbers were not all that impressive, but the experience was definitely something to build on for this season. 

Spinner (more mobile) has a narrow edge over fellow sophomore Matt Schaub (more of a typical dropback passer) but a starter has not yet been named forcing Wisconsin to prepare for two different types of QB's. Both are quite capable and whoever it is will be in good shape behind an offensive line that returns 3 starters and another who started 3 games last year before injury. The offensive line will feature four 5th year seniors and another 5th year senior at tight end which seemingly is always a recipe for success. They will pave the way for yet another 5th year senior in star tailback Antwoine Womack (1st team ACC, led conference in rushing last year) who will be backed up by highly regarded Arlen Harris who actually was the starter last year before injury. These two backs make for a potent combo. Junior WR Billy McMullen (led team in receiving last year) will be counted on as a goto receiver this year and at 6'-4" has drawn comparisons to former Cavs great Herman Moore. Bill Musgrave is the new offensive coordinator (OC for Carolina Panthers last year) and he will have talent to work with. 

Al Groh is a defensive minded coach and you can expect the defense to show marked improvement this year. The defense reportedly has looked impressive and been ahead of the offense in both spring and fall practices which is typical but nonetheless a good sign. The defensive line returns everyone from last year and will have all seniors starting with three of them in their 5th year. They lost three solid LB's from last year but have two stars in the making in Ray Mann and Angelo Crowell and could even end up performing better as a unit than last year as they utilize new schemes and get more help from a stronger frontline. The secondary will count on two newcomers at the corners but boasts one of the best safety tandems in the ACC bolstered by the return of Chris Williams (ineligible last year) who was a freshman all-American in 1999 when he started 11 games. 

Only a handful of Division 1 teams lost more lettermen from last year than Wisconsin did (27) and no Big 10 team has fewer lettermen returning (33). This means that almost half of last years lettermen were seniors which is extremely high. The Badgers return 5 starters on each side of the ball but they suffered significant losses. Gone on offense are stars RB Michael Bennett and WR Chris Chambers both who were taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft respectively. The 2nd & 3rd leading rushers from last year have also departed. Three offensive line stalwarts (two were early NFL picks) who were 4 year starters and combined for 138 starts over the last 4 seasons, are also gone. The defense lost two of its top three tacklers from last year as well as Thorpe award winning star cornerback Jamar Fletcher who also was taken in the draft (1st round). In fact true and redshirt freshman make up almost half of the Wisconsin depth chart. Projected starting free safety senior Carlease Clark was ruled ineligible by the NCAA this week which will force another freshman into action. Wisconsin was not THAT good last year to begin with as they benefited from 7 home games and a gimme trip to Hawaii and finished 8-4. They feasted on some porous defenses (Minnesota, Indiana, Hawaii) to end the season and pad their offensive stats.

What really could be the key to this early season game is special teams. Special teams will be a strength for Virginia this year with seniors handling both the place-kicking and punting. K David Greene hit 11 of 16 FG's last year and his kickoffs reached the end zone 61% of the time while P Mike Abrams was #5 in the NCAA in net punting last year! Both will only be better this year. Wisconsin meanwhile will be breaking in newcomers at both positions as they try to replace a 4 year starter at place-kicker as well as the nations best punter from a year ago. Moreover, the Virginia return and coverage teams are said to have received "significant preperation" for this game. This could be key in the important field position battle.

Barry Alvarez has not been fast out of the gate in recent years as he is just 1-6 ATS in season openers since 1995. In their last 8 season openers they have beaten Nevada, Eastern Michigan (twice), San Diego State, Murray State, and Western Michigan, but against "real" opponents Colorado (1995) and Syracuse (1997) they were outscored a combined 77-7! Ouch!

Playing at Wisconsin will be no easy task but this is a huge game for the Cavaliers as they begin a new era. Expect them to be a hungrier bunch than the already accomplished Badgers. Do not expect the Cavaliers to be intimidated either as they play powerhouses Florida State & Virginia Tech every season and have been to three straight bowl games. This is a team with a lot of pride as retired coach George Welsh led them to 14 straight .500 or better seasons which is the 9th longest active streak in the country. Wisconsin is clearly in a rebuilding mode and had several offseason distractions with rumors of more rules violations and Alvarez getting heat for almost taking the Miami, Fla job. Current forecasts show a 40% chance of rain and this game already had the lowest total (48) of any this weekend which makes the +10.5 even more valuable. Virginia has enough talent to compete for a win here. Take the points. Virginia  1 UNIT

Weekly Recap

It was not pretty, but we will take the win. Virginia had a touchdown called back on a bad call and then lost probably their best player (RB Womack) for the game in the first quarter.  Starting QB then choked and threw two interceptions deep in Wisconsin territory resulting in 10 easy points for the Badgers at halftime. It was a struggle from there but they were able to hang around for the cover. I really felt the officials were on Wisconsin's side all game long.  It's only one game, but its nice to start the season off with a win!