THURSDAY

Oral Roberts (+8.5) vs Pittsburgh - 12:00pm Pacific - Game #729-730
ORU is extremely well coached by Scott Sutton and is making their third consecutive trip to the big dance. The Eagles have multiple marquee wins over major conference teams over the past four seasons and this year they beat Oklahoma State by 15 in Oklahoma City. They also played at Texas A&M, at Texas, and at Arkansas, losing by an average of 11.6ppg which after taking points away for home court would be good enough to cover in this spot. The losses at Arkansas (led at half by 5) and at Texas (trailed by 2 at half) were particularly competitive. ORU is dominated by upperclassmen and ranks #2 in the country in experience by KenPom. They have held opponents to just .397 from the field this season which ranks 23rd nationally. ORU has ten players who average double digit minutes which is a big factor in the high altitude of Denver. Depth, particularly in the front court is not a strength for Pitt who primarily uses just an 8 man rotation. The Panthers are coming off an emotionally and physically challenging four game in four day Big East tournament championship. It was even more special for them with 5 New Yorker's on the roster and having lost in the final the previous two seasons. With Pitt's depth and fatigue issues and ORU's solid half court defense this figures to be a low scoring game. Pitt will have to play near perfect to cover this big number. Take the points.

Play: Oral Roberts +8.5  1 UNIT   |   LOSS 63-82
Kansas State vs USC (-3.5) - 4:10pm Pacific - Game #721-722
USC is young but very talented with all five starters likely having high level professional careers in their future. The Trojans were raw in non-conference play but still beat four postseason participants by double digits in November alone. They have proven to be competitive with the best teams in the country as they own a win over #1 seed UCLA in Pauley, while losing to #1 seeds Memphis in OT and Kansas by just four. The Memphis loss was played in New York just two days after the Kansas loss and could have been won by the Trojans in regulation with one more made free throw. USC finished the regular season winning 11 of 15 games in arguably the best conference in the country. This was despite losing their most experienced guard Hacket for three full games and all but 2 minutes of another due to injury. They downed tough bubble team Arizona State and played UCLA down to the wire in Pac-10 tourney proving their sharp form. Freshman standout OJ Mayo really stepped up late in the season averaging 24.3ppg over his last eight and showed the ability to take over games. USC is very well coached and have continued to improve all season. Kansas State is also very young but has not shown nearly the same maturity or late season improvement. The Wildcats struggle to shoot outside, play very suspect defense, and often take questionable shots. It was a down year in the Big 12 with a big dropoff after Kansas and Texas. KSU still stumbled to a 2-5 finish in their last seven games and have not been solid away from home all season going just 5-9. USC in comparison went 11-6 away from the Galen Center. Trojans simply outclass the Wildcats here. Give the points.

Play: USC -3.5  1 UNIT   |   LOSS 67-80
Texas A&M vs BYU (+1.5) - 4:25pm Pacific - Game #737-738
BYU won the regular season MWC title for the second straight year and likely would have been tournament champions if UNLV was not the host. Their 27-7 record is their best 34 game record in 100+ years of history. Their 4-4 record vs the Sagarin top 50 and 11 wins away from home give them a much better resume than last year when they played Xavier close to the wire in a 2 point first round loss. The Cougars beat Louisville and held multiple second half leads vs Michigan State and North Carolina in non-conference play. They have a top notch big man, shoot very well, rebound, play defense, and have one of the best assist rates in the nation. Texas A&M finished just 8-8 in a down Big 12 and played just one true non-conference road game all season. They have struggled with point guard play all year which is a huge negative in the pressure packed environment of the NCAA tournament. With a large Mormon population in Southern California, BYU figures to have an advantage in fan attendance. Take the points and expect a mild upset.

Play: BYU +1.5  1 UNIT   |   LOSS 62-67
FRIDAY

St. Mary's (+1) vs Miami Fla - 9:30am Pacific - Game #843-844
Everything fell together perfectly for the Gaels this season. With six key returners it was known they would be a good team, but no one had any idea how big of an impact late blooming Australian recruit Patrick Mills would make. Mills not only emerged as a consistent double digit scorer but led the team in assists and steals. Most importantly he made everyone on the team better. SMC has good size for a mid major, F Simpson and C Samhan are capable of playing with the big boys, and depth is solid with little dropoff in talent from 1 through 8. The Gaels are well coached, fundamentally sound, and can be successful playing different styles of basketball. SMC has beaten five different teams in the NCAA tournament field, are 11-5 in games away from home, and even played respectably at Texas. Miami has only beaten three NCAA tournament teams and are 8-8 in games away from home. The Hurricanes finished just .500 in a mediocre ACC and their two biggest wins came by just 1 and 3 points, both on their home court. After a 14-1 start, they are just 8-9 in last 17 games. Canes star guard McClinton went just 6-for-23 in two ACC tournament games. After shooting over 50% in November & December he is only .386 since. Expect the Gaels to get their first tournament win since 1959.

Play: St. Mary's +1  1 UNIT   |   LOSS 64-78
Connecticut (-11) vs San Diego - 12:00pm Pacific - Game #827-828
Few teams enter the tournament as hot as the Huskies. UConn won 13 of their final 15 regular season games and if the Big East was not competitive enough, they added in a quality road win at Indiana in late January and a 12 point win over Georgia Tech in early February. All of this with third leading scorer Dyson (returned for last five games) missing nine games due to suspension. The Huskies lead the nation in blocked shots per game. Their superior size, strength, and athleticism figure to give San Diego fits. The Toreros have no business being in the dance, but parlayed home court advantage and a miracle comeback win in 2OT over St Mary's to upset Gonzaga in the WCC final. Before the WCC tournament USD went 2-8 (avg loss by 11.25 points) vs teams playing in the postseason, with one of those wins coming at Kentucky when the Wildcats were struggling and San Diego got four 3's from a walk-on freshman. San Diego lost starting guard Murdock (left team) midseason and returning rotation forward Fleming (injury redshirt) before the season. They have no seniors playing and only have 3 upperclassmen in the rotation. UConn will be the best team they have played all season and I do not expect a competitive game. The Huskies are still hungry from missing the tournament last year and will be focused. Give the points.

Play: Connecticut -11  1 UNIT  |   LOSS 69-70


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