College Basketball Predictions

Seven Plays:

UTEP vs Utah (-2.5) - 12:05pm Pacific - Thursday - Game #731-732

The Utes are still for the most part flying under the radar despite having a remarkable season. They are 27-5 and went 13-1 in Mountain West Conference play. The conference may be down a bit this year but it is still an accomplishment anytime you win on the road and Utah did so 6 out of 7 times. The Utes also own a 14 point non-conference win over LSU and had very close losses vs Pac-10 heavyweights Washington and Arizona. Sophomore center Andrew Bogut is as dominating of a player as their is in college right now. He is already being projected as the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft. He is big, can score inside with either hand, has range out to the 3-point line, blocks shots, and is flat out the best rebounder in the country. He will own the paint on both sides of the court in this matchup. Senior Marc Jackson and junior Tim Drisdon provide experience in the backcourt. Sophomore forward Bryant Markson has emerged as a nice complimentary scorer over the last two months. Fellow sophomore Justin Hawkins has been solid on both sides of the court. Utah outshoots its opponents .518 to .425 and outrebounds them by a +10.8 margin for the season! UTEP had a great run last year but in addition to losing two key starters lost head coach Billy Gillispie to A&M. They had another solid year, but it was a very down year for the WAC and the Miners play throughout the season has not impressed me much. Their is not really anything that they do exceptionally well. Their shot selection can be very suspect and they could easily struggle mightily against a stifling Utah defense. They are undersized defensively and are not a very good rebounding team. Expect Utah to dictate tempo, control the boards, and eventually pull away for a solid win.

Official Play: Utah -2.5 2 UNITS

George Washington vs Georgia Tech (-5.5) - 6:30pm Pacific - Friday - Game #843-844

Georgia Tech is a rare team that is actually improving game to game at the end of the season due to the recent return of two key players. Everyone knows about the hamstring injury to senior guard BJ Elder that caused him to miss 9 games. Elder said he was about 90% back in the ACC tournament and felt like his offense was ready to spike up soon. Less publicized has been the return of freshman forward Jeremis Smith who missed 18 games with injury. He is getting big minutes off the bench and producing. Paul Hewitt calls him one of his better players. Hewitt said a few weeks ago that he would not mind playing in the first night of the ACC tournament because he felt his team needed to play as many games as they could. They got to play to play three games and judging by their performances they appear to be already nearing their peak. The Yellow Jackets impressively beat a decent Virginia Tech team by double digits before a convincing win over #2 North Carolina. They lost by only 5 in the championship game to Duke. They played all three games without starting guard Isma'il Muhammad due to a knee injury. Muhammad is still listed as questionable as of this writing but I suspect he will be ready to go by Friday. Georgia Tech has plenty of tournament experience with 6 regulars having played in last years national championship game. They have played outstanding defense all season long and have more than enough offensive firepower. George Washington surprised me a bit with their A-10 conference championship run, but lets face it, the A-10 was as down this year as it has been in a long time. I love the way Georgia Tech matches up here. They have superior size and talent at almost every position, are much more structured and disciplined offensively, and play much better team defense. Georgia Tech's athletic website is reporting their entire allotment of tickets has been sold out and Hewitt cannot be much happier with the game being played just one state over in Nashville. Yellow Jackets advance impressively, give the points.

Official Play: Georgia Tech -5.5 2 UNITS

Pacific (+3.5) vs Pittsburgh - 9:40am Pacific - Thursday - Game #725-726

The Tigers are on an incredible run. They finished last year winning 21 of their last 23 games including a win over Big East foe Providence in first round of NCAA tournament before giving Kansas a scare for 30 minutes in round two. This year they are 26-3 and went a perfect 18-0 in conference play. Pacific is now a combined 47-5 since January of last season. That is impressive regardless of who you play and the Big West is an underrated conference in my opinion. Pacific has some quality non-conference wins at Nevada and at Fresno State early in the season and another vs UTEP as part of the bracket buster competition. They also played very well at Kansas in a rematch of last years second round NCAA tournament game. Pacific was hurt by 18 turnovers but still only lost by 11 and the game was MUCH closer than the final margin indicates. Kansas did not pull away until the final stages. Head coach Bob Thomason calls his frontcourt led by stars senior Guillamume Yango and junior Christian Maraker the best he has ever coached. The duo really compliments each other well. Yango is more of a banger and Maraker relies more on finesse. Both are talented and hard working. Senior point guard David Doubley was named conference player of the year. He always seems to be making good plays and good decisions. It has been a season of inconsistency for Pittsburgh. They laid an egg in opening round of Big East tournament losing by 9 to Villanova in a game that was never close. That was their fourth loss in six games. The midseason dismissal of starting guard Yuri Demetris may have had a bigger impact on them than first thought. Perimeter defense has not been what it was in recent years. The Panthers cannot be too excited about opening up in Idaho. The venue location definitely favors Pacific here and I give them a good shot at a mild upset.

Official Play: Pacific +3.5 1 UNIT

Nevada vs Texas (-1) - 4:10pm Pacific - Thursday - Game #717-718

Before upset loss in round one of Big 12 tournament, Texas had won 5 of their final 7 regular season games including a huge road win at Oklahoma State. Big 12 freshman of the year point guard Daniel Gibson has been sensational all year long. Beefy big men Brad Buckman (5 double doubles in last 10 games, 20/20 game vs Colorado last month, Big 12 POW 2/14) and Jason Klotz (improving down the stretch, scored in double figures in 4 of last 5) should control the paint in this matchup. Freshman forwards Dion Dowell (played only 7 minutes in last game after missing significant practice time due to injury in final regular season game) and Mike Williams add speed to the front court. Junior starter Kenton Paulino (fully recovered from early Feb toe injury) and reserve seniors Kenny Taylor and Sydmill Harris (recovered from Feb groin injury) are all steady and experienced players who are willing to defend. Texas has reached the sweet 16 each of the past three seasons and is 18-3 straight up off a loss. It was definitely a down year for the WAC. Nevada lost an all senior backcourt, their head coach to Stanford, and a 1st round NBA pick but still finished 2 games better in the WAC standings this year. The entire WAC conference has only three non-conference wins over NCAA tournament teams. Hawaii accounts for two, beating St Mary's and Southern Illinois, both in Hawaii, and Nevada knocked off Vermont, in Reno. Nevada will have trouble with a team that presents both size and inside/outside scoring balance. The Wolfpack ended their regular season on a down note losing in WAC semifinal to Boise State as a 14 point favorite on their own home court. Nevada also has a relatively inexperienced backcourt with a freshman at the 1, a sophomore who did not see much action last year at the 2, and a first year JC transfer at the 3. Don't expect Texas to get very far but they are good enough to advance in this spot.

Official Play: Texas -1 1 UNIT

UAB vs LSU (-2.5) - 6:30pm Pacific - Thursday - Game #727-728

LSU comes in to the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. They have won 7 of their last 8 games with only loss coming by 1 point in overtime vs Kentucky in SEC conference tournament semifinal. During the span they won at Mississippi State, vs Florida, and vs Alabama. Sophomore forward Brandon Bass (SEC player of the year) and freshman F/C Glen "Big Baby" Davis have been difficult for any team to matchup with inside. An undersized UAB squad should particularly have difficulty. The Blazers frontline is 6-8, 6-7, and 6-5 and they get outrebounded by an average of 4.7rpg. Sophomore Tack Minor continues to progress at the point guard position and has an experienced backup in senior Xavier Whipple. This is important vs a UAB team that will often press and trap. Junior guard Darrel Mitchell and senior wing Antonio Hudson are both potent scorers and have plenty of experience. LSU has shown ability to score well in transition this year and has had success in high scoring games. The posted total for this game is currently 152 and LSU has covered 11 straight games in which they have scored 70 points or more. The Tigers have recent wins over Georgia, Auburn, Miss State, Florida, and Vandy in which they scored 95, 90, 80, 77, and 81 respectively. UAB is not the same team that upset Kentucky and reached the sweet 16 last year. Three starters and their two best players are gone from that team. Additionally, top bench player Ronell Taylor is slowly recovering from injury that held him out 7 games at the end of the season. He returned to play sparingly in two conference tournament games but was a non factor going a 0-3 in 2 minutes in opening game and 0-3 in 7 minutes in last game. I talked about the breaks UAB got in the schedule in my last write-up. If not for that and two very fortunate late season wins over Depaul, they would not be here. Expect LSU to send them home quickly.

Official Play: LSU -2.5 1 UNIT

St Mary's, CA (+3) vs Southern Illinois - 11:50am Pacific - Friday

I'm very high on St Mary's. The WCC was as strong as it has been in many years and the Gaels finished just one game behind NCAA #3 seeded Gonzaga in final conference standings. They went 1-1 vs the Zags in regular season winning by 8 at home and losing by 5 on the road in a game they led for most of the way and by double digits in second half. St Mary's started the season without two of its better players, leading scorer senior guard Paul Marigney sat out the first 9 games due to academics and big man Frederic Adjuwanou sat out the first 5 due to suspension/injury. They got a big non-conference win at Cal and got to play in coaches vs cancer semifinals in New York losing to both Memphis and Mississippi State while still playing shorthanded. They also won at UNLV and beat Air Force in non-conference play. They finished 19-5 in final 24 games. They have a deep, upperclassmen dominated squad. Marigney is an explosive scorer at guard and four regulars are deadly 3-point shooters. 6-10 junior Daniel Kickert (1st team WCC) can score in various ways and really began asserting himself late in the season. He is a very difficult matchup. Adjuwanou provides size and toughness inside. SMC is a hard nosed team and is not at all afraid to play on the road. SIU is on their third coach in four years. I felt last years team was better than this years, yet they still disappointed in first round loss to Alabama. SMC has had an improved record in each of its three years under head coach Randy Bennett who has quickly become one of the top coaching prospects in the West. Look for Gaels advance in to the second round.

Official Play: St. Mary's +3 1 UNIT

Stanford vs Mississippi State (-2) - 6:45pm Pacific - Friday - Game #841-842

Mississippi State may not be getting their due respect right now. This team has only been at full strength in a handful of games this year with leading scorer Lawrence Roberts suffering a severe broken nose at the start of the season and later being slowed by back issues and second leading scorer Winsome Frazier missing 8 games with a broken foot right in the heart of conference play. More recently, starting center Marcus Campbell (pulled muscle in calve) missed narrow home loss to Alabama and both SEC tournament games. Starting wing Shane Power (ankle) was slowed in SEC tournament. Head coach Stansbury said in conference call on Monday that all players will be ready to go Friday. Roberts, Campbell, Frazier, and Power are four very good seniors. Sophomore point guard Gary Ervin had been losing playing time to JC transfer Edmondson but hit a big 3-point shot in win at Arkansas for some much needed confidence. Both guards are cat quick. 7-2 center Wesley Morgan has provided some quality minutes off the bench in recent games. Junior Ontario Harper has starting experience and contributes in many ways. This is flat out a quality basketball team. Stanford has also been hurt by injuries and suspensions but the big difference is that none of their players have come back. At the start of conference play, redshirt freshman guard Tim Morris was given a starting job for one game and performed admirably but was declared academically ineligible two days later. They then lost leading scorer Dan Grunfield to a knee injury in mid February. He has missed the last 8 games and the team now really lacks perimeter depth which effects them on both sides of the floor. Stanford has gone 5-3 since the injury but had some favorable scheduling and some good breaks just to accomplish that. Stanford is only 18-12 overall (11-7 in Pac-10 play) for the season, and it was clearly a down year for the league. Stanford must travel as far as any other team to reach first round venue in Charlotte. Expect Miss State to advance.

Official Play: Mississippi State 1 UNIT