College Basketball Picks - Added Looks

2/01/05

Maryland at Clemson (+3.5) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #721-722

Clemson head coach Oliver Purnell circled this current four game homestand as the period in which he wanted his team to play its best basketball. They opened it with a disappointing loss to NC State on Saturday as the Wolfpack shot a blistering 63% from the field and bad weather limited attendance. Seven missed free throws in the 2nd half alone also hurt Clemson's chances. The Tigers are now just 1-7 in ACC games but have played 5 of 8 on the road, two of their home games were vs top 5 teams North Carolina and Wake Forest, and three of the ACC losses are by a combined 8 points. They have played the 11th most difficult schedule in the country according to RPI. Purnell has promised to "shake things up" for this game to make sure the team gets the message that they are going to hang their hats on defense. Maryland comes in with unusual circumstances having just played a hard fought game vs Georgia Tech on Sunday and just has a one day turnaround to travel and play another conference game. This will be their third game in seven days and the first two were very big wins for them. Terps are 1-2 in ACC road games and 1-3 overall in true road games thus far. Clemson is a live home dog in this spot.

Added Look: Clemson +3.5 1/2 UNIT

Florida at Mississippi State (-2) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #737-738

Bulldog star Lawrence Roberts missed the first two games of the season and was not himself in the next six playing with a nose mask. During the span he averaged just 14.6ppg & 10.5rpg while shooting .368 from the field as the team went 4-2. Since then he has averaged 20.3ppg & 11.9rpg while shooting a much higher percentage and the team has gone 12-2. They are now coping with the loss of starting guard Winsome Frazier for the season but they have solid depth and senior Ontario Harper (back from knee injury last year) is filling the vacancy well. Miss State is a perfect 8-0 at home and has pretty much blown out everyone who has come in. They have won 10 straight overall at home and are 32-4 here dating back to the start of the 2002-03 season. Gator forward Matt Walsh has rejoined the lineup but that could cause some problems as they had been playing so well without him. Walsh is a combined 6-for-22 from the field since returning from a severe ankle sprain three games ago. Florida is 2-0 in SEC road games thus far, but they will get by far their toughest test of the season home or away tonight. Miss State is not getting the respect they deserve here.

Added Look: Mississippi State -2 1/2 UNIT

Maryland at Clemson (UNDER 145) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #721-722

As I indicated in my last analysis, Clemson coach Oliver Purnell insisted in his press conference that this team will hang its hat on defense and that the starting lineup will be "shaken up" to be sure that the point gets across. This coming after allowing 63% shooting to NC State. He also indicated that he would like to pound the ball inside more to big man Ford. Both of which should favor a lower scoring game. Clemson games only average 136 points to begin with. Meanwhile, Maryland has been playing very strong defense of late holding both Duke and Georgia Tech under 36% shooting in last two outings. Playing on short rest they will probably not press as much as they normally do.

Added Look: UNDER 145 1/2 UNIT

2/2/05

Duke at Wake Forest (-3.5) - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #585-586

I believe Wake Forest and North Carolina are the two best teams in the ACC. Wake came up huge in their only meeting with UNC this year winning handily. The Demon Deacons have played a ridiculously strong schedule. It ranks 2nd toughest in the country by Sagarin and 5th in the country by CollegeRPI. They have gone 5-2 (only UNC and Illinois have as many wins) vs teams ranked in the Sagarin top 30 with only losses coming at #1 Illinois and at Georgia Tech by 1 in OT. Duke meanwhile has played only three teams ranked in the Sagarin top 30, going 2-1, but the wins came over Michigan State (in Durham) in November, and over Oklahoma (in New York) in mid-December. They have not beaten a top 30 team in over 6 weeks and have not beaten any in a true road game situation. They were upset by Maryland two games back and no matter how well they play are going to have their hands full vs a deep and talented Wake Forest team on the road tonight. Wake is a perfect 10-0 at home and as good as they are this year should be an automatic play in Winston Salem giving less than -5.

Added Look: Wake Forest -3.5 1/2 UNIT

2/3/05

Louisiana Tech at Fresno State (-3.5) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #749-750

Fresno has shown steady improvement throughout the season. Freshman point guard Kevin Bell joined the team for the second semester and now has started the last 9 games. He has brought some much needed stability to the point guard position. Senior forward Dreike Bouldin, one of two returning starters from last year, also missed significant playing time at the start of the season but has now started 10 straight games. He is fourth in scoring and second in rebounding. JC transfer JaVance Coleman is an all conference performer who will receive consideration for player of the year. Fresno is coming off their biggest win of the season on the road at WAC co-leader Nevada. They are now 6-3 in WAC play and a perfect 4-0 in WAC games here at home. It is not unusual to seem them receive very favorable officiating at the Save Mart Center. Louisiana Tech has won four straight games, but the last three were all at home. They are 2-2 in WAC road games winning at last place Tulsa and over a shorthanded Hawaii team by 1. They upset UTEP by 15 in last game but they shot 22 more free throw attempts and the final score is misleading due to late technicals. This will be just their second WAC road game against a team with an above .500 record in conference, their only other attempt resulted in a blowout loss at Rice. Fresno led throughout in winning first meeting and should be able to duplicate that effort at home. This line is at least a few points off.

Added Look: Fresno State -3.5 1/2 UNIT

LMU (+7.5) at San Diego - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #753-754

LMU guard Brandon Worthy saw 22 minutes of action in last game vs Pepperdine after missing 9 games with a knee injury. How important is Worthy? The Lions are now 8-3 with him and 2-7 without him. He leads the team in assists and steals while being a solid scoring threat and excellent rebounder for his size. Both LMU's defensive and offensive numbers are much improved with him in the lineup. The Lions are coming off perhaps their best played game of the season, a 63-46 win over crosstown rival Pepperdine. They now travel to San Diego for a rematch with the Toreros who narrowly escaped with a 3 point win earlier in the year at LMU with Worthy not in the lineup. San Diego has lost three straight and four of five. They will be without starting guard Avi Fogel (eligibility) who was dismissed from the team this week. He averaged 6.9ppg, led the team in assists, and scored 17 points including what proved to be the game winner in earlier game at LMU. Additionally, physical reserve guard Floyd North (8.2ppg in conference) missed last game (knee) and is probable this week but not 100% healthy. This should at least be a close game and I will take the big number.

Added Look: LMU +7.5 1/2 UNIT

Cal State Fullerton (-1.5) at UC Riverside - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #761-762

I still like the way Fullerton is playing right now. It was unfortunate for them to lose starting F/C Hardy Asprilla (knee) for the season but they have gone with a smaller lineup bringing Virginia transfer Jermaine Harper back as a starter. He had been very inconsistent most of the season but he becoming more of a dependable scorer of late. Senior G/F Ralphy Holmes and sophomore point guard Bobby Brown continue to be two of the very best players in the Big West. Center Jamaal Brown leads the conference in rebounding in Big West games. Fullerton is only 1-3 in Big West road games but all four games have come against the four top teams in the conference (at Pacific, at Utah State, at Idaho, at CSUN) and they played very well in close losses at first place Pacific and at Idaho. UC Riverside has now lost 3 of 4 games after an embarrassing 9 point home loss to last place Cal Poly Saturday. The Highlanders are now really feeling the loss of top player center Vili Morton (knee, out for the year). They had some new found energy in their first few games without him but now opponents have made proper adjustments and they have struggled mightily. Even a shorthanded UCSB almost came back from a double digit half-time deficit in recent game and UCR only beat Long Beach State by 3 here. Expect the CSUF Titans to continue their winning ways.

Added Look: Cal State Fullerton -1.5 1/2 UNIT

2/5/05

St John's at UConn (-15) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #723-724

A four point loss at Notre Dame put UConn at 4-4 since New Year's and prompted a players only meeting. The team responded with a solid win over Villanova on Wednesday. This is a talented team that is just starting to learn how to play with each other. I expect good things from the Huskies in coming weeks. This is one of just seven games played at the on-campus Gampel Pavillion this year. They are 31-4 in last 35 games played here. UConn ranks 7th in the nation in field goal percentage defense allowing opponents to shoot just .375 from the field. That can really give a young team like SJU fits. The Red Storm have been a surprise early in the year but are due to hit a wall soon. They are 0-6 in road games including 0-3 in Big East road games. They rank last in the conference in turnover margin and 9th of 12 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. UConn is overdue for a blowout win and should get it today.

Added Look: UConn -15 1/2 UNIT

Wisconsin at Minnesota (+3) - 9:00am Pacific - Game #729-730

Minnesota head coach Dan Monsoon is doing a fine job with the Gophers. This is the first year he has not been under probation and has had a full allotment of scholarships. They are off to their best start in his five years here. Senior center Jeff Hagen is having an outstanding year almost demanding a double team every time he touches the ball inside. He is night and day from the 4.3ppg player of a year ago. JC transfer Vincent Grier has been outstanding. They are playing great team basketball. The Gophers are 5-3 in conference with only losses coming at Iowa, at #1 Illinois, and vs Michigan State. They are 11-2 at home this year. Wisconsin has been getting by despite injuries and inconsistent play. Leading scorer Alando Tucker has missed last two games and is uncertain today with a foot injury. The injury is not going away and he is going to have to play through discomfort if and when he does return. The Badgers have used 5 different starting lineups since Big 10 play began. Minnesota badly needs a marquee win for their NCAA tournament resume. They have a major opportunity to get one today.

Added Look: Minnesota +3 1/2 UNIT

Purdue at Northwestern (-3) - 1:35pm Pacific - Game #779-780

I'm willing to take another shot on the Wildcats in this spot. They had an 8 point lead with the ball at the 6:00 minute mark in last home game vs Ohio State before being outscored 22-1 to end the game. That was a game they believe they should have won but they are still 8-3 at home and are expecting a good crowd for a visit from Purdue. Prior to Ohio State loss they beat Iowa at home and in last game showed heart fighting back from a huge early deficit in loss at Wisconsin. The Boilermakers are 0-6 on the road overall and 0-4 in Big 10 road games. They rank last in the conference in scoring margin. Purdue has struggled putting the ball in the basket all year and that won't change vs Northwestern. I still believe the Wildcats can compete with any Big 10 team (besides Illinois), especially on their home court, and will return to their winning form at home today.

Added Look: Northwestern -3 1/2 UNIT

Dayton at Richmond (-4) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #841-842

Richmond has solidified their rotation and have gotten hot at the right time for respected head coach Jerry Wainwright. They have won four straight games including a double digit win over George Washington who at the time appeared to be the dominant team in the conference. Senior forward Jamaal Scott has scored double figures in six straight games including 14.0ppg during four game win streak. Andres Sandoval has established himself as a clear cut starter since becoming eligible at second semester. Richmond is 6-1 at home with only loss an upset vs Colorado when students were on winter break. The Spiders have played 5 of their 8 conference games away from home but still have a chance to move into a tie for first place with a win tonight. Dayton meanwhile has played 5 of their 8 conference games at home and have had a very favorable schedule. The Flyers are one of the youngest teams in the country with 8 freshman and 12 players in their first or second year with the team. They are winless on the road against teams with above .500 records. Richmond will be looking to avenge 1 point loss at Dayton three weeks ago and I believe they get the job done with home court playing a significant role.

Added Look: Richmond -4 1/2 UNIT

2/7/05

New Mexico at Wyoming (+2) - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #723-724

Wyoming already had to replace 3 departed starters and 6 regulars overall from last year before dealing with significant injuries this year to starting guards Steve Leven (missed 5 games) and Dion Sherrell (missed 5 games). The team has only been fully healthy for a short time and appear to be hitting their stride now. They have won 4 of their last 5 games including a big OT win over second place Air Force on Saturday. They are always a tough out at home as are all MWC teams and so far they their only home loss in conference play came vs Utah who has dominated everyone. New Mexico is 1-3 on the road in conference play with only win coming Saturday at last place Colorado State. Not only is CSU in last place but they played the game without Jason Smith and Matt Williams who rank 2nd & 3rd on the team in both scoring and rebounding. It was still a close game most of the way. New Mexico has won 3 straight since the return of leading scorer Granger from knee injury but I attribute the wins more to a favorable schedule (2 straight home games vs 5th & 6th place teams, road game at 8th place team) than anything. I do not believe the Lobos should be giving points on the road against a Wyoming team who has a chance to move into a tie for second place with a win.

Added Look: Wyoming +2 1/2 UNIT

2/8/05

Texas at Colorado (+4.5) - 6:30pm Pacific - Game #539-540

The Buffs have definitely been bolstered by the return of starting center Julius Ashby six games back. He is their best low post player but missed seven games due to injury. After starting Big 12 play at 0-4, CU has gone 3-2 over last five games despite playing 3 of 5 away from home. This will be their third and final opportunity to knock off a ranked team at home. On January 15th they made a run in the second half against then undefeated Kansas trailing by just 1 on two occasions before giving way. In last home game they trailed #9 Oklahoma State by only 2 at half-time and stayed close most of the second half. Tonight they have a great opportunity to get over the hump. Ten Longhorn players have seen action in conference play this season. PJ Tucker (academics) and LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) are likely done for the year. Key reserve guard Kenton Paulino (8.6ppg) is doubtful to play tonight with a dislocated big toe suffered in last game. Starting guard Sydmill Harris has been struggling with a groin injury that limited him to just 2 second half minutes in last game. He is listed as questionable. If he can not go, Texas is left with just six scholarship players. The high altitude of Boulder is not where you want to be with a short bench. Texas is 1-3 since losing Tucker and 1-3 on the road in Big 12 play. Chance for a mild upset here.

Added Look: Colorado +4.5 1 UNIT

2/9/05

San Francisco at San Diego (-3.5) - 7:30pm Pacific - Game #791-792

San Diego has won 7 of their last 8 home games with only loss coming versus league powerhouse Gonzaga. The seven wins have come by an average of 14 points. Senior forward Brandon Gay has been sensational since the start of conference play. He is averaging 19.4ppg in 9 conference games which ranks 2nd in the WCC. San Diego shoots better, defends better, and outrebounds opponents by decisive margins at home. They are coming off a weekend sweep of LMU (recently added top guard Worthy) and Pepperdine (new lineup, much improved play in last two games) who both won at San Francisco. USF is reeling a bit having lost three straight games heading into this. They have been battling some nagging injuries and have shot under 40% and committed 16.8 turnovers per game in last four outings. The Dons are just 1-3 in WCC road games with lone win coming at Santa Clara by 2 points. They are 4-5 in WCC play overall but two of the wins came in overtime and the other two by a combined 5 points. USF won the earlier meeting in San Francisco in OT. USD led by 8 at halftime and by 4 with 2:18 left in OT before falling. They will be looking for revenge tonight and are 2-0 straight up and ATS in same season revenge games so far this season. They should be able to turn the tables again with home court in their favor.

Added Look: San Diego -3.5 1/2 UNIT

2/15/05

Kentucky (-3.5) at South Carolina - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #735-736

It is surprising that Kentucky is not a larger favorite here. They are having a sensational season with only two losses coming at North Carolina and vs Kansas. They are a perfect 10-0 in SEC play including 5-0 in road games. The Wildcats are coming off a sluggish win over Georgia in last game in which they were outrebounded and finished poorly allowing the Bulldogs back in the game. That subpar performance will surely be used as motivation heading into tonight. South Carolina played well at Kentucky on January 5th in a narrow loss but the two teams have gone in different directions since then. The Gamecocks are 5-5 in SEC play but two of their wins have come against last place Georgia (3-5 vs all other teams) and they remain one of only four SEC teams that has not won against a team in the Sagarin top 30. They are coming off an inexcusable home loss to Auburn and even their best effort will not be good enough in this spot. Kentucky dominates in almost every statistical category and should continue their march towards a perfect SEC regular season.

Added Look: Kentucky -3.5 1/2 UNIT

2/26/05

Kentucky at Alabama (-3) - 10:00am Pacific - Game #731-732

With an elite 8 appearance last season and four starters returning, Alabama had very high expectations coming in to this year. They have not disappointed going 21-5 overall and 10-3 in SEC play. They played as well as could be expected in 2 point road loss vs a hot LSU team on Tuesday. The Tide are not only a perfect 13-0 at home but have not even been challenged here. They have won their last 6 home games by an average margin of 24.6ppg, all against SEC opponents including a 49 point win over Miss State and a 21 point win over South Carolina. Gamecock head coach Odom said after the game that Alabama was the best team they have played all year and South Carolina has faced the likes of Kansas, Pittsburgh, Florida, and Kentucky. For the first time in head coach Bama coach Gottfried's career he has been able to use the same starting lineup in all 26 games so far this season. Definitely a good sign. Kentucky has only had one good performance in their last four outings. The suspect play started with much closer than expected 9 point home win over Georgia and was followed by a bad loss at South Carolina. They rebounded with a big home win over Miss State last Saturday but again were lackluster in 8 point home win over Auburn on Wednesday night that was not decided until final stages. The inconsistent play of late may be attributed to the Wildcats having four freshman in their regular rotation, including two starters. This will easily be Kentucky's toughest SEC road test. I do not believe they will pass it. A second straight sellout crowd of 15,000+ has been confirmed. Give the points.

Added Look: Alabama -3 1/2 UNIT

Louisville at Memphis (+3.5) - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #833-834

It has been an up and down season for the Tigers, but over the past few weeks they have been playing outstanding basketball. They dominated Louisville for a full 40 minutes in 17 point win at Freedom Hall on their way to winning 6 of 7 games before losing a heartbreaker on the road vs a very good Charlotte team on Wednesday night. Memphis led by as many as 10 in the second half and never trailed by more than 4 in a 3 point loss. The Tigers have really stepped up their defensive play of late holding 7 of their last 9 opponents under 40% shooting. Their improved play has come despite playing 5 of their last 7 games on the road. For all of Louisville's accolades only 4 of their 13 conference games have come against the top six teams in the C-USA standings. They are just 2-2 in those games with both wins coming vs Cincinnati. Louisville has barely survived their last two road games winning by just 4 at UAB and by just 3 at Marquette. Starting point guard Taquan Dean continues to be limited by mono, playing just over 20 minutes per game off the bench since diagnosis. Memphis has no chance at getting an NCAA at large bid without a win tonight. ESPN gameday will be on campus to further excite the home crowd. The Tigers have all the makings of a live home dog.

Added Look: Memphis +3.5 1/2 UNIT

LMU at Pepperdine (OVER 141) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #841-842

Pepperdine continues to score points at a much higher rate since switching to smaller three guard (two point guard) lineup six games ago. In last six outings their game totals have averaged 157 and that is not counting any of the overtime points scored at Santa Clara. Tonight they may regain the services of former starting center Jesse Pinegar who is one of their better 3-point shooters and is much better known for his offensive prowess than defense. Pinegar has missed the last 11 games with a dislocated ankle but figures to see the floor tonight on senior day if at all possible. From the outset of the season LMU head coach Steve Aggers has voiced his preference to play at a higher tempo. Lions games are averaging 136.4 for the season and 145.5 in last two outings. I believe that LMU will have no problem going up and down the court with Pepperdine if given the chance. The first meeting between these two was an ugly 63-46 point LMU win which prompted Pepperdine to switch to their new smaller lineup in the first place and is a reason why this line has not been set higher. Expect a lot more points in this second meeting.

Added Look: OVER 141 1/2 UNIT

2/27/05

Xavier (-5.5) at LaSalle - 11:00am Pacific - Game #533-534

Xavier's blowout win over A-10 west leading George Washington on Wednesday was a breakthrough game for this team. They appear to finally have come together and look poised for a strong finish to the season. Starting center Brian Thornton (Vanderbilt transfer) had been bothered for several weeks by tendinitus and finally sat out two games to heal. He appears to have put the problem behind him now as he is coming off a career high 25 point, 9 rebound performance. Head coach Sean Miller points to Thornton's healthy return to the lineup as a huge factor. Xavier is now 5-2 over their last seven games. Only losses in that span came at Cincinnati and at Dayton in a game they led in the final minute. In first 17 games of the season, Xavier allowed opponents to shoot 45.9% from the field and 40.4% from 3-point range. Over the last 7 games, opponents are only shooting 38.2% from the field and 29.7% from behind the arc. Much improved numbers. On offense Xavier has a very balanced attack with four starters averaging double figures. Each has been coming on strong in recent weeks. LaSalle has been plagued by inconsistency all season. They have been an overachieving group but just do not have enough talent available to compete in the A-10 on a game by game basis. They are just 4-10 in conference play and 1-6 in conference home games. Starting point guard Tabby Cunningham left last game after 10 minutes and did not return. He is reported to have a knee injury (some say he is in coaches doghouse) and is officially listed as questionable today. Expect Xavier to finish out the season strongly and improve their seeding for A-10 tournament that is being played in nearby Cincinnati.

Added Look: Xavier -5.5 1/2 UNIT