Florida at LSU (+2.5) - 12:00pm Pacific - Game #729-730

I have liked this Tiger team all season but in last game they proved they are capable of playing at a very high level as they won on the road at Mississippi State.  They became the only team to win at Miss State all season and in the process completed a two game regular season sweep.  Freshman center Glen "Big Baby" Davis has been sensational in recent weeks.  Since conference play began he is averaging 14.8ppg and 10.3rpg.  Forward Brandon Bass has scored in double figures 13 straight times.  Sophomore point Tack Minor has become a more solid and consistent performer.  LSU had been getting hurt by opponents points off turnovers, yielding 17.2ppg in that category but have made great strides in last three games allowing only 25 (8.3ppg) combined.  The Tigers have played at a high level at home all season going a perfect 5-0 in SEC play and should have one of their biggest crowds of the season on hand today.  I really do not have anything against Florida, they have been playing solid basketball, but they are only 3-2 in SEC road games and will need nothing short of an A performance to have a shot here.  LSU is talented enough, playing at home, and the game means more to them.  Take the points.

 

Official Play: LSU +2.5  1 UNIT

 

Ohio State at Minnesota (-2) - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #747-748

The Gophers had a major letdown following their big win over Wisconsin and lost a 2 point game to Northwestern in their following game.  Their next two were on the road at Michigan State and Indiana and suddenly they are on a 3 game losing streak.  I still am nothing but impressed with how far they have come this year and I believe they will bounce back today in this key home game.  They already have shown the ability to beat Ohio State, doing so on the road in Columbus a month ago in overtime.  In that game starting center Jeff Hagen (leading rebounder, second leading scorer) was limited to just 8 minutes due to injury.  Ohio State is currently on a 6-1 run, but none of the six teams they have beaten (Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, and Penn State at home, Northwestern and Penn State on the road) is above .500 on the season.  OSU head coach Matta recently benched senior guards Stockman and Fuss-Cheatham in favor of JC transfer Foster and freshman Butler.  It is difficult to gauge how successful the move was due to their suspect recent schedule, but I generally do not like seeing players get benched, especially seniors, so late in the season.  Ohio State will be without reserve forward Matt Sylvester (one game suspension) who has averaged 10.1ppg in last 9 games and plays 19 minutes per game.  Expect the Gophers to get back on track.

 

Official Play: Minnesota -2  1 UNIT

 

UNLV at Wyoming (-4) - 3:00pm Pacific - Game #753-754

The Cowboys have been one of the better MWC teams over the past month.  In last game they came as close as anyone has all season to winning at Utah, gaining a 2 point lead early in the second half before eventually losing by 9.  Prior to that they had won 4 straight and 6 of 7 games overall, all in conference.  They are always tough in Laramie having won 4 straight conference home games with only loss before that coming vs Utah who has dominated the MWC.  I discussed last week how several newcomers and some key injuries slowed the progress of this team but they now appear to be playing up to their ability.  UNLV has been a disappointment all season long.  Last week they won their first conference road game in overtime at SDSU.  In that game they trailed by 18 in the second half and amazingly by 10 with 30 second left before a miracle rally.  They are still only 1-3 in MWC road games.  That OT win ended a tough 4 game stretch in an 8 day span.  UNLV's top two players, leading scorer Blankson (bruised fingers) and starting point guard Blassingame (thumb) are both probable to play today despite minor injuries on their shooting hands.  Advantage Cowboys.

 

Official Play: Wyoming -4  1 UNIT

 

Pepperdine at St Mary's (OVER 142) - 7:05pm Pacific - Game #809-810

The Waves went to a three guard lineup beginning 5 games ago at San Francisco.  Their play has been much improved since then but even more noticeable has been the higher tempo pace they have been playing at.  In the first seven conference games, Pepperdine averaged 67.8ppg and allowed 74.0ppg.  Since the lineup change they are averaging 80.4ppg and allowing 78.0ppg.  That is an average of 158.4ppg for an increase of 16.6 points total points per game.  None of these numbers even reflect the overtime points scored in last game at Santa Clara.  In the first meeting between the two teams, only 133 points were scored but it was a very physical game with very few fouls called.  Both teams shot well below their season averages.  It was also three games prior to Pepperdine's lineup change.  St Mary's games are averaging 147.3 over the last three and they do not mind getting up and down.  Pepperdine WCC road games have averaged 151 points despite super low scoring game (109) at LMU (159.4 in 5 others), and that is again not counting overtime points from last game.  I expect neither team to have much success stopping the other.  Take the over.

 

Official Play:  Over 142  1 UNIT

 

UCSB at Cal Poly (OVER 135.5) - 7:05pm Pacific - Game #811-812

Santa Barbara has been snakebitten more by injuries this year than any team I can ever recall.  The key injury right now is to starting forward Cameran Goettsche.  He missed last game with a back injury and is listed as questionable tonight.  Without him UCSB is forced to go with a tiny lineup and with no inside presence is prone to a faster paced game.  Goettsche has missed three conference games this year.  Against Utah State, it was an 80-70 game surpassing the total by 36 points.  At Idaho the total was only 111, but 68 came in the second half which is almost unheard of for Idaho and UCSB.  On Wednesday at Pacific, Goettsche was not in the lineup and the total points were 135, 12 points over the posted total.  Three times without him in the lineup, UCSB games have averaged 132, nine times with him they have averaged 113.8, for an 18.2ppg difference.  Meanwhile, Cal Poly games average more total points than any team in the Big West by far.  In 13 conference games involving Cal Poly, total points have averaged over 149 a contest.  This is a rivalry game and figures to be competitive so expect some free throws at the end for insurance.

 

Official Play: Over 135.5  1 UNIT