College Basketball Predictions

*Two plays Saturday:

Florida at Vanderbilt (-5.5) - 12:00pm Pacific - Game #583-584

I've been impressed with the play of Vanderbilt this season. Junior point guard Mario Moore has stepped up as the team leader this year. He had monster games vs Alabama and Tennessee last week earning himself SEC player of the week honors. He leads the team in points and assists. 7 foot center Przybyszewski is probably the best outside shooting big man in the country. He is gaining more and more attention from NBA scouts. He has made 30 3-point shots and is shooting .476 from behind the arc this year. Senior forward Corey Smith is second on the team in scoring and has adapted well to his new role coming off the bench. Junior forward Julian Terrell is playing solid defense and rebounding well inside. Freshmen Shan Foster, DeMarre Carroll, and Alex Gordon each have made positive impacts. All in all 10 players are averaging double digits in minutes played. Vandy has been flat out dominant at home this year but even more impressive was their wire to win win at Tennessee by double digits two games back. The win was solidified by Tennessee beating Miss State in their next game. Vandy even played well at Kentucky last time out as the game was closer than the 15 point final margin.

Florida escaped with a 6 point win in overtime at Auburn last game, but that win does not change my opinion of them much. They shot very well from 3-point range (10-for-18) and Auburn did not (7-of-30). Florida had some disturbing numbers in the game. They gave up 17 offensive rebounds to the undersized Tigers and turned the ball over 23 times. They will not win many more road games in the SEC with those types of stats. The Gators have had some difficulty defending the 3-point shot this year and Vanderbilt is by far the best shooting team in the SEC.

Vanderbilt is playing very well together (over 65% of made field goals have been assisted), playing solid team defense, and is flat out shooting the lights out, especially at home. Six Vandy players have made at least 20 3-pointers and as a team they are shooting .429 (over 45% at home) from behind the arc which ranks #8 nationally. They have won 11 straight games here and have an average winning margin of 18.2 points in home games this season. The Commodores won last years meeting here by 14 and I expect a similar result.

Official Play: Vanderbilt -5.5 1 UNIT

Stanford at California (-1) - 1:00pm Pacific - Game #597-598

Cal is one of six Pac-10 teams with a conference road win as they won impressively at Washington State by 12 two weeks ago. In that game starting guard Richard Midgely, the teams leading scorer and focal point of the offense sprained a shoulder. He took pain killers at the beginning of each half in next game vs Arizona but shot just 5-for-13 for 14 points. In next game vs Arizona State he was only able to play six minutes and did not score. It was unfortunate for Cal who has already been without starting guard Ayinde Ubaka since November due to a broken foot. Midgely had averaged 19.75ppg in his last four games prior to last weekend and an already struggling offense relied upon him heavily. Still, the Bears managed to lead Arizona State by 6 with 14:00 minutes left before faltering and losing by 9 in a game much closer than the final score indicates. With Ubaka sidelined and Midgely ailing, junior walk-on Martin Smith has proven himself capable of playing at a Pac-10 level. He played a career high 39 minutes vs Arizona State in last game scoring 12 points with 7 assists and just one turnover. He currently leads the conference in assist to turnover ratio. Not only is Midgely expected back at nearly full strength this weekend, but Ayinde Ubaka has returned to practice over a week ago and is expected to see his first action in 11 games Saturday. He should provide a nice lift both on the court and emotionally for Cal.

Stanford was sky high for last weeks home game vs Arizona. They played their absolute best and with a lot of help from their home crowd were able to pull off the upset. It was their first and only conference win thus far. Junior guard Grunfield scored 29 points on 10-12 shooting (5-of-5 from behind the arc) but he only shot .314 from 3-point range heading into the game. Stanford is 1-4 in road games this year with only win coming narrowly by 4 at Denver in a game the Pioneers fumbled away at the end. Stanford has not been strong defensively this year allowing opponents to shoot .441 overall and a healthy .418 from 3-point range which is last in the Pac-10. Stanford redshirt freshman guard Tim Morris was declared academically ineligible prior to last weekends games. Morris was the teams most athletic guard and had just earned a starting job in his final game.

While Stanford's defense has not been a strength, Cal's has. The Bears rank second in the Pac-10 holding opponents to just .408 shooting and .310 from 3-point range. Much better numbers than Stanford. Cal will be the hungrier team having lost two straight conference home games, they will get a lift from the return of guard Ubaka, plus home court advantage will spell victory for the Bears.

Official Play: California -1 1 UNIT