College Basketball Picks

Florida at Auburn (+5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #777-778

It is amazing what first year head coach Jeff Lebo has been able to accomplish with an undermanned Auburn team this year. The Tigers have wins at Temple, vs Colorado State, vs Louisiana Tech, at College of Charleston, and vs a good MTSU team as well as others. They also have narrow losses vs UNLV in OT and vs Virginia by 2. This is a team that basically plays three guards and two forwards but they have found a way to overcome their lack of size and depth. Freshman guard Toney Douglas has been superb, he will definitely be on the SEC all-freshman team if not win freshman of the year honors. He is leading the conference in scoring right now at 18.8ppg. He can score from just about anywhere. Seniors Nathan Watson, Ian Young, and Quinnel Brown are all averaging in double figures and playing well together. Another freshman starter, G/F Daniel Hayles is providing solid all around contributions. Each of the 5 starters has made at least 10 3-point shots this year. Auburn gets hurt on the boards a bit (-4.8 ratio) but gets some of that back on turnovers (+2.28).

Florida is battling through injury issues right now. Leading scorer and team captain Matt Walsh is out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain and center Adrian Moss (only played 4 minutes in last game) has been very limited by a back problem. The Gators are nowhere near as scary of a team without those two in the lineup. Florida's Sagarin strength of schedule rating is just 269. Their lone two quality wins came vs Providence who was playing its second game in two nights, and last game vs Arkansas in which they shot 78% in the second half and still only won by 8. The three other notable opponents (Miami, Fla, Louisville, and Florida State) were all losses. Their only true road game of the season was a 13 point loss at Florida State. This will be their first game all year outside of the state of Florida.

Auburn loves to shoot the 3-point shot, they are second in the SEC to only Vanderbilt with 9.14 made 3's per game. Florida meanwhile has not defended the 3-point shot well. Against their five "non-cupcake" opponents Florida has allowed a healthy 40-of-90 (.444) made shots from behind the arc. This does not bode well for the Gators. Well liked Auburn head coach Jeff Lebo will have his team ready for a good upset opportunity in their SEC home opener tonight. Take the points.

Official Play: Auburn +5 1 UNIT

Nebraska at Colorado (-3) - 6:00pm Pacific - Game #799-800

The Buffs return home from a long three game road trip that included ugly losses at Utah by 32 and at Oklahoma by 30. Between those two games they did win very nicely at Richmond and overall they have won 6 of their last 8 games. Freshman forward Richard Roby has been a real difference maker for this team. He leads the team in scoring at 14.5ppg and is second in rebounding. He also is third in assists and has the ability to score inside and out. Junior F/C Chris Copeland spent the last two years backing up David Harrison but is now taking advantage of his playing time by averaging 12.9ppg and emerging as a prolific outside shooter for a big guy. Sophomore guard Marcus Hall has also come on strong. He and junior Jayson Obazuaye form a very athletic backcourt, both averaging in double figures for the season. Steady junior point guard Antione McGee was moved into the starting lineup two games back, he has starting experience from last year. 6-11 JC transfer Lamont Arrington has started the last five games at center and is improving. LMU transfer forward Andy Osborn has returned from an injury to provide quality minutes. Freshman King-Stockton and junior Glean Eddy round out a 9 man rotation.

Nebraska is coming off a double OT win over Kansas State who had several players banged up including top player Massey (ankle) who did not start and only played 26 of 50 possible minutes. Kansas State is not a very strong team to begin with and Nebraska should have been able to win more convincingly. The Cornhuskers also have suspect home losses to Minnesota and Creighton. They are 1-2 on the road losing by double digits to UAB and Marquette and escaping with a one point win at Tennessee which should have been a loss. The Vols missed four straight free throws down the stretch including two front ends of 1-and-1's enabling Nebraska to get fouled on a 3-point shot and convert 3 free throws to win at the buzzer. Nebraska went 1-7 in Big 12 road games last year. NU starting point guard Jake Muhleisen (team leader in minutes played) injured an ankle in last game and is listed as questionable as of this writing.

Colorado has always been a solid home team. They are 15-1 at home in Big 12 games the past two seasons, and 32-4 overall counting their perfect 6-0 record in Boulder so far this year. They should be ready to go in their conference home opener. Look for CU to avoid an 0-2 start in Big 12 play with a nice win over a suspect Nebraska club.

Official Play: Colorado -3 1 UNIT