College Basketball Predictions

*Three plays Saturday:

Iowa State at Missouri (-5) - 10:30am Pacific - Game #739-740

Missouri is clearly playing much better basketball of late. They have won four of their last five games with the only loss coming narrowly in a hard fought game vs #1 Illinois. They beat #12 Gonzaga here two games back showing that they do belong. Sophomore forward Linas Kleiza is emerging has a big time force. He has a great shooting touch and with his big body can pretty much get off a good shot any time he wants. He comes in averaging 15.5ppg to go along with 7.0rpg, both team highs. Senior G/F Jason Conley has come up big in last two games recording two straight double doubles. He had 16 points and 13 boards in the Gonzaga win. Junior guard Jimmy McKinney is very reliable and talented freshman point guard Jason Horton is becoming more and more comfortable every game. 6-9 sophomore center Kevin Young adds size and toughness to the lineup. Sophomore Thomas Gardner is averaging in double figures and adds scoring off the bench. Maybe more important than anything is Mizzou's improved defensive play. They have held nine straight opponents to 70 points or less including Arkansas, Illinois, and Gonzaga.

Iowa State has been a very strong home team under Wayne Morgan, but on the road has been a different story. The Cyclones were 7-1 in Big 12 games at home last year, but 0-8 on the road. This year they are 8-3 overall but 0-3 on the road. In my opinion they have not been as impressive even in their home wins this year than they were last year. They lost two good double digit scorers to graduation and have not really replaced them. They were lucky to escape with a win vs a Virginia team who has struggled mightily since then and recently were tested by Tennessee State winning by just 6. The Cyclones have been outrebounded in 7 of their 11 games and are in big trouble if any of their big three players (Homan, Blalock, Stinson) has an off game.

The Tigers are playing very determined basketball right now. Head coach Quin Snyder's job is on life support as it is, but the he and this team can not afford many more losses to keep their postseason hopes alive. It took a little longer than planned for this young team to hit their stride and they should continue improving. The home court advantage in this matchup is worth 7 or 8 points by itself. Give the points.

Official Play: Missouri -5 1 UNIT

Portland at Santa Clara (-2.5) - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #851-852

Santa Clara owns wins over North Carolina and Stanford but has really suffered through a string of tough games and losses over the past month. This team is much better than their current 7-9 record and recent performances indicate. In the last month the Broncos lost at Arizona State by just 5, at BYU by 13 in a game that was much closer than the final score, to Yale in OT, and most recently to Gonzaga by just 4. The senior guard tandem of Doron Perkins and Kyle Bailey is one of the best in the WCC. Junior forward Travis Niesen is having a breakthrough season with 14.9ppg. Senior guard Ethan Rohde, a former walk-on, is hitting 43% from behind the arc. Freshman Brody Angley has filled in nicely at point guard. Head coach Dick Davey said before the season that 6-10 sophomore center Sean Denison would be critical to the teams success, but he missed the first 12 games of the season due to injury. He returned four games ago and has started the last three. He played 21 minutes vs Gonzaga and gives the team much needed size on the interior. He could be the missing piece that gets Santa Clara back on track.

Portland went 2-5 in WCC road games last year and started conference play this year with a 21 point loss at Saint Mary's on Thursday. They managed just 45 points, a season low. I watched the Pilots play in person at UC Riverside earlier in the year. They were not very impressive. They escaped with a 6 point win that night but very easily could have lost to a bad team if UCR hit their free throws. They also should have lost at Long Beach State but the 49ers blew a late lead and gave up a runner at the buzzer allowing Portland to win by 1. Santa Clara at home will be much more difficult than UCR and Long Beach. The Pilots have two quick guards who can penetrate and score 1-on-1 but they do not run very much set offense and get very few points in the paint. Santa Clara has enough backcourt quickness to defend Portland's strength.

Santa Clara head coach Davey said after the Gonzaga loss that every game from here on out is big. This is almost a must win game for the Broncos if they are going to turn their season around. They should have gained experience from the difficult schedule they have played and they are now at full strength with center Denison back from injury. Santa Clara stepped up their play for WCC opener vs Gonzaga and should play well again today. The Broncos won both meetings in this series last year and this should be a convincing win for them playing at home.

Official Play: Santa Clara -2.5 1 UNIT

UCSB at Idaho (-3.5) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #857-858

The Vandals were a bit of a disappointment in non-conference play but appear to have turned the corner when they upset league co-favorite Utah State here at home in their Big West opener by 7. They earned their second Big West win over Cal Poly by 17 on Thursday. They now have a golden opportunity to start conference play at 3-0 for just the second time ever. >From top to bottom almost every Idaho player has improved their numbers in the teams first two conference games. Swingman Dandrick Jones (15.6ppg overall, 21.0 in conference) was named Big West player of the week following the big Utah State win. Senior guard Tanoris Shepard has been solid all season. Senior center Anton Lyons went for 15.0ppg and 8.0rpg in the two conference games. Freshman point guard Jerod Haynes has been an excellent addition earning the starting job from day one. Senior forward Armend Kahrimanovic doubled his scoring average going for 13.0ppg in conference. The Vandals were easily the third best team in the conference in the second half of last year and this year are looking to do more damage early on.

No team in the country has been hurt by injuries more than Santa Barbara. Already with a depleted roster entering a three game road trip, the Gauchos lost leading scorer Casey Cook to a foot injury in the first half vs CSUN that will most likely cause him to miss the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, starting forward Cameran Goettsche who has already missed significant practice and playing time because of a groin injury, is again experiencing pain and did not play Thursday at Utah State after missing practice all week. He is listed as doubtful to play in this game. The Gauchos are now down to five scholarship players and seven players total. They were down by as many as 19 vs Utah State on Thursday before battling back thanks to 8 three pointers by guard Joe See before losing by 10. This team is going to have difficulty being competitive against anyone. They were not very good offensively even with Cook and Goettsche, and those two were also the teams best interior defenders and top rebounders. This will be UCSB's third straight on the road, even with a full team they lost by 12 here last year.

Idaho has a senior laden squad and head coach Leonard Perry has a way of getting the most out of his players. This line is far too low for a team who has already beaten Utah State by 7 and Cal Poly by 17 here against a severely depleted UCSB team playing on the road. Give the small number.

Official Play: Idaho -3.5 1 UNIT