Handicapper.net - Home of Right Angle Sports

Northwestern at Wisconsin (OVER 43) - 9:00am Pacific

There are a glaring amount of injuries to both defenses heading into this game. Wisconsin has three starting defensive linemen banged up. The big loss being DE Erasmus James (expected to miss) who is one of the best in the entire nation. James leads the Badgers with 10.5 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, and 6 QB hurries. Last week vs Purdue, James had 1.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 forced INT, and drew 3 holding calls all in the first half when Purdue was shutout. After his injury early in the second half Purdue scored 17 unanswered points. DT Hawthorne (5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, key run stopper) is listed as questionable with a knee injury. DE Jonathan Welsh (plays opposite of James) has just been downgraded to not expected to start, doubtful to play with an ankle injury. Starting LB Cribbs (second on team with 5.3 tackles per game) missed last game and is questionable as well. It is unlikely the Wisconsin defense will be its normal self, especially with a dominant player like James missing.

Northwestern meanwhile has 4 key defensive starters listed as questionable for this game. Coming out of a BYE week, all four will probably play but could be at less than 100%. All four are key players: Leading tackler Tim McGarigle with a groin injury, LB Nick Roach (leads team is TFL's and sacks, 5th on team in tackles) with a shoulder injury, free safety Dominique Price (3rd on team in tackles) with a shoulder injury, and CB Jeff Backes (second on team in pass break ups) with an ankle injury. The Wildcats are already without LB Adam Kedala who was among team leaders in tackles for loss and sacks before going down in third game. Also, star DE Loren Howard has been out all season. He has returned to practice sooner than expected and is expected to see some playing time this week but it is unlikely he will be much of a factor. Another defensive line star Castillo has been playing hurt all season.

So much has been talked about the dominant Wisconsin defense, but their offense returned 9 starters from last season. They had to play without star RB Anthony Davis for three games and that situation was made worse by injuries to backups. Davis has now played in three consecutive games and top backup RB Booker Stanley returned to action last week as well. With the defense banged up a little, I expect this offense to step up and give their best performance of the season. QB John Stocco is 7-0 as a starter this year and is coming off a career high 211 yard passing performance. With back to back road wins over ranked teams under his belt he now has the seasoning and confidence that he may have lacked early in the season. That combined with a healthy running game should be successful against a mediocre Northwestern defense that is battling injury issues.

Northwestern's spread attack has historically given Northwestern trouble. Despite last years low scoring affair, these two teams have combined for 56ppg in last 13 meetings. This is not the week that Wisconsin wanted to have defensive line issues as Northwestern's offensive line is easily the best they will have faced so far this season. The Wildcats come in ranked 19th in total offense and coming off a BYE week should have a few new wrinkles in place. Look for this game to end up somewhere in the 50's.

OVER 43 1 UNIT

Oklahoma State at Missouri (-3.5) - 12:30pm Pacific

If not for a few big plays here and there in losses at Troy State and Texas, the Tigers would be undefeated right now. They led 14-0 at Troy before falling asleep at the wheel and let an inferior team come back with a trick play TD and offensive lineman fumble pick up and run for TD that seized momentum. At Texas last week they outgained the Horns by 59 yards and had 3 more first downs but two turnovers led directly to two easy Texas touchdowns and they fell short 28-20. I am still high on this team. They feel and I concur that they can win every remaining game on their schedule. They have won nine straight games at home and this is homecoming week.

Oklahoma State is coming off their first loss of the season, 36-20 to Texas A&M. The game was not as close as the final score indicates. A&M led 36-6 heading into the 4th quarter. The Cowboys have a strong running game but their pass attack his far from where it needs to be to compete at this level. Redshirt freshman QB Donovan Woods is a nice athlete but up until last week he had not had to make many plays because UCLA, Tulsa, SMU, Iowa State, and Colorado could not effectively stop the running game and simultaneously OSU led the nation in turnover margin. A&M was able to slow down the Cowboy running game and was able to build an early lead that OSU could not recover from. Freshman QB Woods will be making his first start coming off a loss and his first road start in the role of an underdog. The Mizzou defense has been solid vs the run this year and Woods will again be forced to make plays that he is uncomfortable making in order for the Cowboys to sustain drives.

The OSU defense was torched by the A&M offense last week. Dual threat QB Reggie McNeal had a huge day and there is no reason to suspect that Mizzou's standout QB Brad Smith will not enjoy similar success. Smith has not had a breakout game yet this season but this could be his week. The OSU defense has already been playing without secondary leader and punt return standout Darrent Williams (1st team Big 12 last year) due to an arm injury. This week they will also be without true freshman standout DE Nathan Peterson who has been lost for the season. Peterson was their most effective pass rusher leading the team in both sacks and tackles for loss.

Missouri is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs Big 12 opponents and are 16-8 ATS as a home favorite since 1997. They are also 11-5 ATS (5-0 since 2003, 48-0 win over Ball State this year) following a straight up loss under Gary Pinkel. The Cowboys are just 3-7 ATS in the away dog role under Les Miles. OSU could also possibly be looking ahead to highly anticipated matchup vs Oklahoma following nest week. Mizzou is 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings in this series. Expect a solid win by the Tigers.

Missouri 1 UNIT

Troy State at LSU (-23.5) - 5:00pm Pacific

The Tigers are one of the most well coached teams in the country. They are also one of the most talented. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, in come from behind fashion at Florida. They dominated the contest but two early turnovers in their own territory had them playing catch up all game long. They put together a nice touchdown drive in the final minutes to get the win. The three point final margin is misleading as they had 15 more first downs and outgained the Gators by 228 yards on the road. The come from behind win gave them a lot of positive energy heading into their BYE week and they will be surely eager to get back on the field.

Troy State had a lot of early season hype after winning at Marshall and then beating Missouri on national television. The Missouri win was undeserving as they had a fluke fumble pickup by an offensive lineman for a touchdown and several other big plays that went there way. Since then they have been awful going just 1-3 straight up with lone win coming at home vs a horrible Utah State team. They were beaten by a bad New Mexico State team and were no match at all vs a sandbagging South Carolina team. Last week they lost a key conference game at Arkansas State. Starting QB Leak has really struggled in recent games. He completed just 6 of 19 passes with 1 interception and 3 sacks last week in loss at Arkansas State. The ASU defense entered the game ranked 116th of 118 teams in yards allowed. Troy only netted 249 total yards of offense and nine points against them. There is talk that true freshman QB D.T. McDowell will likely get the start this week. He has completed just 3-of-13 attempts for 18 yards in limited action this season. My guess is that both QB's will play, maybe even three, and none will have success. Yes, the Troy State defense is above average, but on the road at LSU will be an entirely new test for them. Especially considering that they figure to be on the field far more than even they are used to.

This will be Troy's second straight road game and 5th in just 7 games this year. LSU head coach Nick Saban has made a reputation for himself with strong defense and I do not expect TSU to score more than once in this game, if that. LSU ranks 9th in total defense nationally coming into the game. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in last five games vs non-BCS conference schools and already own two 50+ point wins this season including a 53-3 win over the same Arkansas State team that beat Troy last week. LSU hosts Vanderbilt next so I do not expect them to be holding anything back. Senior QB Marcus Randall has won his starting QB job back but expect freshman JaMarcus Russell to make amends for his poor performance at Florida once he enters the game. This is a mismatch and I believe the line is at least 6-7 points off. Tigers roll.

LSU 1 UNIT