As is usually the case, the Wolverines are loaded at several positions this year.  The only question mark is at QB.  They started the season with somewhat of a crisis as projected starter Gutierrez went down with an injury just a few days before the opener.  The Wolverines opted to go with true freshman Chad Henne who had less than a month of practice under his belt at the time.  Henne has not been asked to do much and has not had to.  In season opener the defense forced 7 turnovers in a 43-10 win over Miami Ohio.  In week two, Michigan suffered their only loss at Notre Dame.  This was one game that they did not win the turnover battle and the offense was not good enough to overcome it.  UM finished with just 296 total yards, 80 of which came on a garbage time drive in the final minutes.  They put up 329 and 327 yards in home games vs Iowa and San Diego State in following two games.  Versus Iowa, Michigan's four scoring drives averaged just 39 yards and they got an interception runback for a TD.  Versus SDSU, they only scored 24 points, and again benefited from a defensive TD.  The offense only generated 17 points despite a +3 turnover margin.  Last week vs Indiana, Michigan finally put up some good numbers but that was against a terrible Indiana defense that ranks 107th out of 116 teams in the nation.  Through five games, Michigan is averaging just 330 total yards per game.  Through five games last year they had averaged 457 per game and for the season last year they averaged 447.  All in all Michigan is averaging 30.4ppg, but defense and special teams is responsible for 28 points directly and has set up many other short scoring drives. 

 

Minnesota comes into the game loaded at many positions themselves.  They feature one of the strongest running games in the country.  They have an outstanding offensive line and one of the premier running back tandems in the country.  Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney are standout runners that possess both speed and power.  It is difficult to tell them apart.  The Gophers are also inexperienced at the QB position.  Sophomore Brian Cupito has not had to do much this year but was very unimpressive last week vs Penn State finishing 8-for-18 with 1 interception in his first test vs a top 50 defense.  It will not get any easier for Cupito this week as he starts his first ever Big 10 road game and faces one of the premier defenses in the country.

 

The Gophers only scored 16 points vs Penn State last week.  They came into the game averaging 44.25 points per game but that damage was done against a Division 1-AA opponent and three other teams that rank 90th, 98th, and 114th in total defense.  Their QB is inexperienced and they do not have a strong receiving group to make passing any easier.  The Gophers are committed to and will live or die on running the football.  Problem with that is that they will be facing a Michigan defense that ranks #1 in the nation against the run allowing just 47.2 yards per game.  Furthermore, the Wolverines will have their home crowd behind them and be fired up after allowing an uncommon 424 rushing yards to the Gophers in last years meeting.  Head coach Carr is sure to have challenged the defense to stop the run this time around and they should do a significantly better job.  Under Glen Mason, the Gophers have been among national leaders in fewest offensive turnovers so the Michigan offense should have to earn all of their points. 

 

Over the past three seasons, the Minnesota offense has been far less potent on the road in conference play.  Since 2001, the Gophers have averaged 33.5ppg in Big 10 home games, but just 21.3ppg in Big 10 road games.  Both teams start inexperienced QB's who will each be playing in the biggest game of their careers to date.  I expect both coaches to play conservatively and try to take pressure off their QB's.  This means going extra lengths to try to establish the run.  Michigan is capable of hitting on a few big plays over the course of the game with their outstanding receivers but it will take more than that to get this game over fifty.

 

UNDER 52.5   1 UNIT