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Utah at New Mexico (OVER 48) - 5:00pm Pacific (Friday)

Expected a much higher total to be listed for this matchup. Utah is clearly a pure "over" team. They have an extremely effective QB in Alex Smith, a superb RB in Marty Johnson, and two excellent big play receivers in Parris Warren and Steve Savoy. The offensive line is solid and they are very well coached. They are ranked 26th in rushing offense and 24th in passing offense so balance is there as well. It is hard to find a weakness in this offense. The Utes are averaging 40.25 points per game through first four games of the season. Their success in the red zone has been amazing thus far with 19 scores in 20 opportunities, including 18 touchdowns! Defensively, Utah is far less impressive. They are ranked 72nd nationally in total defense and have given up some big chunks of yardage to some average offenses. Their stats would probably be even worse if not for +1.75 turnover per game average which ranks 9th nationally. The Ute defense is said to be beaten up following last weeks game vs Air Force in which they had to defend 83 plays, 66 of them running. Most teams run a little over 30 running plays in a single game. Coach Meyer said afterwards that it was an extremely physical game and many of his players would not be able to practice early in the week. This is worsened by the short week and lost time to travel.

New Mexico games have only averaged 38.5 points per game thus far but that number is a bit misleading. The Lobo's season opener vs Washington State was played very conservatively by both teams. Also, two weeks ago vs Oregon State the game was played in wet conditions and Lobo starting QB Kole McKamey left the game in the first half with a concussion and did not return. New Mexico has an excellent offensive line and a very good running back in junior Dontrell Moore. Moore is currently listed as questionable for the game with a sprained knee. He has been able to participate in non-contact practice drills the past two days and my guess is he will not miss this big of a game. Either way I believe they will have success running the ball against a Utah defense which ranks 73rd vs the run. QB McKamey will then have the opportunity to make some short throws and open the offense up. McKamey has been kept under wraps for most of the season but tonight he will get a chance to show what he can do.

New Mexico won last years meeting in Salt Lake City 47-35. The previous two meetings before that were high scoring as well, averaging 65 points per game. This has been called Utah's toughest game on the schedule for quite some time and they reportedly have been preparing for the New Mexico defense since Spring. Last years loss to the Lobo's was the Utes only home loss and only conference loss of the season. They will be out for revenge tonight. New Mexico meanwhile always seems to get up for conference play where Rocky Long is 26-17 ATS at New Mexico. He is also 12-5 ATS in home conference games since 1999. Neither defense is good enough to keep this game from going over 50.

OVER 48 1 UNIT

*If an official announcement is made on the status of New Mexico RB Moore, this line will likely go up or down accordingly. I like the play regardless.

Colorado at Missouri (-7) - 12:30pm Pacific

The Tigers are a solid all around team. Offensively they are led by record setting QB Brad Smith. He is a three year starter and as explosive as ever. His passing touch is even better than in recent years. RB Damien Nash is a tough inside runner and freshman Marcus Woods (5-8, 180) provides a more speedy change of pace off the bench. Junior WR Sean Coffey has really stepped up his play this year with 200 receiving yards through the first three games. Last years leading receiver Thomson Omboga is also back. Senior TE Victor Sesay is also a force with already 12 receptions. The only question about this offense entering the season was replacing four starters on the offensive line but so far they have performed as well as anyone could expect. They have paved the way for 5.4 yards per carry and have only allowed three sacks. With the dynamic Brad Smith running the show, this offense can do major damage to any defense.

Defensively, Missouri made big strides lowering their points allowed from 29.3 in 2002 to 22.1 last year. They return nine starters on defense and should be even better this year. This is easily the best defense Missouri has had since Gary Pinkel's arrival. After two less than stellar performances in first two games, the defense pitched a shutout vs Ball State two weeks ago. It was the teams first shutout of a Division I-A opponent since 1998. LB David Richard has been suspended for the game for disciplinary reasons but reportedly there is not much drop-off to backup Marcus Bacon. Mizzou held the CU running game to 89 yards on 33 carries in last years meeting. This will be this units first real test of the season and I look for them to perform well with a fired up home crowd behind them.

Something just has not looked right with Colorado this year. Their offseason turmoil has been well documented and although they are supposedly happy that the season is here, I still think the offseason will have some negative effects on the performance of the team. Notably, six players transferred out of CU, five of which would have competed for starting jobs. The Buffs did not play in a bowl game last year and missed out on the extra practice time. They started the season like gangbusters jumping to a 14-0 lead against Colorado State but have done nothing at all to impress me since. CU's only other TD against CSU was an interception return in the second half and they were still lucky to win 27-24 as CSU had the ball inside the 5 yard line as time expired. They ended up being outgained by 75 yards and the usually very accurate QB Klatt (65.1% completion's last year) finished just 13-of-25 vs a suspect CSU defense that was geared to stop the run. The next game saw similar trends as CU was outgained 402 to 125 by Washington State but escaped with a 20-12 win thanks to an interception runback and blocked punt for touchdowns. Klatt again completed just 50% of his passes. Two weeks ago Colorado's offense finally got on track, but it was against an 0-4 North Texas team that ranks 106th in total defense. A big reason for Klatt's slow start is lack of any experienced receivers. All five of his top targets from last year have departed and no one has stepped up to be a goto guy as of yet.

Alarmingly, the CU defense gave up 502 total yards to the Mean Green offense in last game. North Texas has averaged just 211.66 yards per game vs their other three opponents (Texas, Florida Atlantic, Baylor). Despite playing three teams who have mostly struggled offensively this year, CU comes into this game ranked 102nd in total defense and 116th in pass defense out of 117 I-A schools. An all sophomore secondary is very suspect and allowing 258 rushing yards to North Texas is a major concern. Strong safety JJ Billingsley is expected to return to the lineup from a knee injury this week and might help but this unit is still in trouble against by far the most potent offense they have faced thus far.

Not only could Colorado be 1-2, they should be 1-2. Missouri was burned for a trick play touchdown and fluke long fumble recovery and run by an offensive lineman in only loss at Troy State. Once momentum switched they could not recover and nothing went their way in the second half. That loss definitely got the attention of the team and they are now more focused. CU has beaten Mizzou five straight times including a 21-16 win in Boulder last season. In that game the Tigers outgained CU by 221 total yads but had four turnovers, including two by Brad Smith inside the CU 25. No Tiger player or coach has ever beaten CU and they would like to change that. Mizzou has been great at home recently winning 8 straight by an average of 28ppg and going 4-0 ATS vs conference opponents at home during the span. Tigers are also 7-3 ATS as a home favorite under Pinkel. This is Mizzou's most anticipated home game since Nebraska last year which resulted in a 41-24 win. I look for another big win here.

Missouri 1 UNIT

Kansas at Nebraska (OVER 44) - 4:05pm Pacific

Another low posted total. Nebraska is obviously passing the ball a lot more this year under new head coach Bill Callahan. They attempted 31 passes in season opening blowout of Western Illinois and then 42 passes in narrow loss to Southern Miss. The Huskers opened a big lead in last game at Pitt and were very conservative in the second half which almost came back to haunt them but they hung on to win by 7. Talk in papers is that Callahan's NFL mind set may have had him play too conservatively with leads in second halves vs both Southern Miss and Pittsburgh but he has indicated he will no longer coach that way. The Nebraska offense has put up good yardage (440 per game) and should be scoring a lot more points but have been killed by 12 turnovers in just three games. They are coming off an important BYE week and Callahan said a lot of the focus was on sustaining drives and scoring. They reportedly worked especially hard on red zone offense. If Nebraska does get a comfortable lead in this game, expect them to continue to score points not only for insurance but for confidence and to impress alumni and recruits.

It is surprising how much Kansas is throwing the ball this year, even with a first year starting QB. Two weeks ago the Jayhawks attempted 51 passes and just 26 runs in a narrow loss at Northwestern. That game was surprising low scoring (20-17) but it should be noted that the teams combined for three made field goals inside the 10 yard line and missed three field goals from makable distances. Last week Kansas attempted 47 passes and just 35 runs in a 31-30 loss to Texas Tech despite playing very conservatively in the second half while trying to hold on to a big lead. All of these passing attempts result in a lot of stopped clocks and more plays. The Jayhawks have averaged 33.3 points per game this season. While their defense is said to be improved, they have given up winning touchdown drives in two consecutive games and could be battling confidence issues. They also are a much better defensive team at home where they have played three of their four games this year. This will be their first Big 12 road game and they allowed 45.25 points per game in four conference road games last year compared to just 16.5 in four conference home games. It is going to be difficult for coach Mangino to hold this unit together.

Nebraska will be fired up for their conference home opener. Callahan is also excited to be playing a night game which he says helps with recruiting. I really believe the BYE week will have helped the Nebraska offense. They should look much more comfortable on that side of the ball this week. QB Joe Dailey has performed better than his stats indicate. He is a capable QB and has some weapons. Kansas is pesky enough on offense to score some points. Both teams force a lot of turnovers so it would not be surprising to see some defensive and/or short field scores. The low posted total makes for a good value.

OVER 44 1 UNIT