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Three RAS plays for Saturday:

BYU (+22) at Boise State - 7:05pm Pacific (Friday)

I see value in this matchup. BYU is nowhere near as bad as the final scores of their last two games indicate. The Cougars beat Notre Dame in their season opener. In next game they led 10-0 at Stanford but then gave up a 99 yard kick off return and committed 7 turnovers in a 27 point loss. Second string QB Matt Berry started vs Stanford due to injury to starter John Beck but had to leave after just three plays with an injury. Third stringer Jason Beck (John's brother) got most of the action, but four QB's in all played. Last week BYU played #1 USC who is clearly a dominant college team right now. BYU actually scored first and held the Trojans scoreless until almost midway through the 2nd quarter. It was still a 21-10 game in the third quarter before USC reeled off 21 unanswered points in the 4th quarter for a 42-10 win. BYU's -3 turnover ratio and lack of time of possession eventually wore the defense down but it was still a good showing in my book. BYU starting QB John Beck was able to start and finish a game for the first time all season. After a great start he suffered a shoulder injury vs Notre Dame and only played sparingly vs Stanford. He should continue to improve with more playing time and especially not facing a defense like USC's. The Cougars have many weapons on offense. WR Todd Watkins has played as advertised and has already caught 2 passes for 50 yards or more in his first three games. He is expected to see the ball more this week and BSU, like most teams, does not have an answer for him. The BYU running game has struggled mightily to start the season but the offensive line holds a 51 pound per man advantage on the Boise defensive line and they are eager to things on track. Defensively, coordinator Bronco Mendenhall knows the BSU system well. In last years loss, BYU held Boise to only 180 total yards through the first three quarters before the wheels came off. The unconventional 3-3-5 set may give inexperienced Boise QB some fits.

I am still not convinced that Boise is the same type of team they were last season. The Bronco's lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. They beat up on a horrible Idaho team to start the season and then blew past a deflated Oregon State team after falling behind 14-0. The Beavers were drained coming off heartbreaking road loss at LSU and playing on a short week. Trailing 14-3, BSU used a 46 yard interception return for a TD to get back into the game and change all momentum. Last week, Boise (-28) trailed lowly UTEP for the better part of three quarters before finally taking control late. Sophomore QB Jared Zambrasky has been solid in his first three starts but appears prone to interceptions. He has thrown at least one in each game thus far, including two vs UTEP in last game, and had a least a few other throws that could have easily been picked off. BSU has still only played one quality opponent, and even that game has to have an asterisk next to it considering Oregon State's situation. This BYU defense will probably be BSU's stiffest test of the season thus far. Especially considering that the 3-3-5 set BYU runs can give young QB's nightmares. BSU three opponents thus far are a combined 1-7 vs I-A teams this year. BYU's three opponents this far are a combined 7-1.

Boise embarrassed BYU last year in Provo, winning 52-10. Believe it or not, Boise gained just 52 more yards than the Cougars but benefited from two bad punt snaps and an interception runback. The BYU QB situation was a mess that day as they had to play four different QB's due to injuries and finished the game with 4 interceptions total. While most people are expecting a similar result this year, I see BYU playing with nothing to lose and everything to gain. The Cougars have a real opportunity to turn their season around and all reports indicate they are confident and very much looking forward to this game. Expect the BYU defense to come up big and slow the Boise offense down somewhat. The BYU offense has many favorable matchups and will score enough points to keep them well within this big number.

BYU 1 UNIT

Michigan State (-3) at Indiana - 9:00am Pacific

As of this writing coaches are still very tight lipped on who the starting QB will be for this game, however all indications are that highly recruited sophomore Drew Stanton will get his first career start. Stanton was the clear front runner for the starting QB job this season until suffering an ACL injury on a special teams play in last years Alamo Bowl. He missed all of Spring and has been limited in the fall, falling to third string. He saw his first action two weeks ago off the bench and led a 98 yard 4th quarter scoring drive vs Central Michigan. He was called into action in the second half last week vs Notre Dame and almost instantly ignited the offense which had done nothing up to that point. Stanton completed 8-of-12 passes for 110 yards and rushed for another 49. He led three long drives, one for a touchdown, one for a field goal, and another which ended with a fumble at the goal line. Coaches have reported that Stanton's knee is holding up and he was able to return to practice on Tuesday, which coaches also said was their best team practice of the season! Michigan State features a talented group of receivers with everyone returning from last year. They have underachieved so far this year due to inconsistent QB play (senior Dowdell started game 1, freshman Reaves started game 3). With Stanton at the helm, they should be much more effective. Stanton's leadership and also running ability bring new dimensions to this offense. The offensive line is said to have had its best game of the season vs Notre Dame. This entire unit is ready to take their play to another level.

The Spartan defense has been solid in first three games. In season opener they held Rutgers to just 4 field goals (only touchdown was an interception runback). This is despite being on the field for over 40 minutes! They then held Central Michigan to just 7 points, all of which came on a 90 yard run. Notre Dame scored 31 points, but had a 75 yard fumble return, a 13 yard TD drive, and benefited from 6 Spartan turnovers which had the MSU defense on the field for over 34 minutes. Taking away the defensive scores, MSU is allowing just 14.3ppg. This unit has 7 starters back, including 5 of their top 6 tacklers from last season. With a little help from the offense they will be in fine shape.

Indiana was brought back to reality last week vs Kentucky. The Hoosiers gave up 51 points and 560 total yards. The 19 point final losing margin would have been larger if not for a 3rd quarter fumble return for a touchdown and a 64 yard pass in garbage time for a touchdown. Kentucky is not exactly an offensive powerhouse. They were shutout in their opener at Louisville. Indiana is giving up 461 yards per game. Despite a 2-1 record, they have been outgained by an average of 167.59 yards per game. Even in their 41-10 win over Central Michigan they were outgained and had less first downs. IU has one of the weakest home field advantages in the country. MSU is expected to have a good group of fans make the 5 hour drive. Michigan State can ill afford a 1-3 start, this is their Big 10 opener, and it is clearly a must win game. MSU head coach John L. Smith is 10-4 ATS as a road favorite in his last 5 seasons (4 at Louisville). The Spartans won last years meeting 31-3 and should take care of business here.

Michigan State 1 UNIT

Vanderbilt at Navy (OVER 48) - 10:30am Pacific

The Commodores are setting new levels of disappointment each week. They started the season with a highly anticipated matchup vs South Carolina. In that game they shot themselves in the foot with 4 turnovers. One being a fumble at the goal line, and another an interception that was returned 99 yards for a touchdown. Last week Vandy had a 10 point lead with the ball and 10 minutes left in the game, but somehow lost in overtime to Ole Miss. This team is now desperate and will do anything to get a win. I look for this team to give a good showing today, especially on offense. Gutsy junior QB Jay Cutler is now a legitimate dual threat. Not including sacks, he ran for over 100 yards last week. The Dores ended with 183 net rushing yards, their highest total in an SEC road game since September 2002. That is despite six sacks for -44 yards. Cutler can also pass as he exhibited vs South Carolina, going 24-of-38 for 270 yards. Vandy should have scored at least 20 on the Gamecocks. They put up 23 points on Ole Miss despite having one penalty negate a long touchdown run, and another controversial phantom holding penalty negate a pass play that would have given them first and goal inside the 5 in the 4th quarter. Vandy will be without one of their leading receivers Eric Davis (broken toe) this week, but they are very deep at that position.

The biggest reason I do not like Vandy as a side this week is their shaky run defense. They let South Carolina run as they please for 269 yards in the opener. They followed that up by allowing Ole Miss to run for 170 yards, which was 42 yards more than the Rebels had gained in their first two games combined. This does not bode well when facing a run oriented team like Navy. The Midshipmen are averaging 310 rushing yards and 28 points per game and feature one of the best FB's in the country in senior Kyle Eckel. He has NFL ability. Vandy has a few key players banged up on defense. Senior FS Kelechi Ohanaja, the teams leading tackler, is battling a hamstring injury but will play. Senior DE Aaron Carter is listed as questionable with knee injury.

Last season in Nashville, Navy ran for 342 yards on their way to a 37-27 win. There were very few short fields in that game as the average TD drive was 65 yards. This total is posted somewhat low due to Vandy's misleading poor offensive numbers thus far and Navy's misleading strong defensive numbers thus far. The Midshipmen held Duke to 12 points and shutout Tulsa, but also allowed 24 to I-AA foe Northeastern. They will have their hands full with an experienced Vandy offense. After unfortunately facing two straight SEC teams to start the season (only South Carolina was given the same task), this could be a breakout week scoring wise for the Commodores. They have plenty of offensive weapons and balance to be effective in this matchup. Expect a high scoring affair.

OVER 48 1 UNIT