Vanderbilt +4 over South Carolina -
9:30am Pacific (Saturday)
This game is of immeasurable importance to the Commodores.
They have 7 "winnable" games this year and there has been
much talk about the prospects of them reaching a bowl game
for the first time in 22 years. Don't laugh now, but they
do have a chance. It all starts with this opening game.
Vandy has suffered through two years of futility under 3rd
year coach Bobby Johnson (2-10 in both of first two
seasons). He has fielded some of the youngest SEC teams you
could imagine but this year is what they have been working
towards. Vandy returns 10 starters on offense and 11
starters on defense! Vandy features an offensive and
defensive lineman who were named to the preseason all-SEC
team. Starting QB Jay Cutler is a legitimate NFL prospect.
He has received rave reviews in fall practices for better
decision making. The receiving group is said to be much
improved as well. Running back duo of Kwane Doster and
Norval McKenzie remains in tact. The defense features SEC
sack leader Jovan Haye, stud LB Moses Osemwegie (126
tackles, 10.5 for loss last year) and 9 other returning
starters. For the first time in a while, Vandy has
competitive SEC team. Excitement and expectations are high.
South Carolina is coming off back to back 5-7 seasons.
Their offense has struggled the last two seasons and even
with 9 returning starters back it is hard to foresee major
improvement with QB Pinkins still the starter. He is for
the most part an inconsistent passer and decision maker. He
completed only 50.3% of his passes last year. Head coach
Holtz made some coaching changes since last season. He has
named himself as offensive coordinator and has brought in
former Cincinnati head coach Rick Minter as his new
defensive coordinator. Minter will be the third coordinator
in three years as the Gamecocks miss former DC Charlie
Strong who moved on to Florida prior to last season after
great success here. They allowed 26.2ppg last season which
is the most in the Holtz era. Eight starters are back
but the losses were key performers LB Garrison (leading
tackler), CB Robinson (1st round draft choice), and CB
Eiland (6th round draft choice). The secondary remains
suspect.
Vanderbilt should have confidence heading into this game.
They actually outgained the Gamecocks 456-to-379 in last
years meeting in Columbia. SC capitalized on two turnovers
deep in Vandy territory to take a 21-3 early lead. Vandy
fought back but eventually lost 35-24 finishing with a -3
turnover ratio. Quote from Lou Holtz after the game, "I
went to Skip when we were up 28-10 and said we can't stop
them, you will have to control it on offense." With almost
everyone back and now playing at home a year later they must
feel they have a good chance of turning the tables.
There has to at least be a fair chance that South Carolina
is looking ahead to their huge home opener vs Georgia next
week. Meanwhile, this could not be any bigger of a game for
Vandy who has a BYE following this. If South Carolina does
not show major improvement from last season and bring their
A game, they will lose this game outright. The Gamecocks
ended last season with 4 straight losses and are just 3-7
ATS (0-2 ATS on road) in the role of the favorite in past
two seasons. They are also 1-4-1 ATS in season openers
under Holtz. Even with extremely young teams,
the Commodores are 5-2-2 ATS as a home dog under Bobby
Johnson. One of those ties was a heartbreaking 7 point OT
loss to bowl bound Georgia Tech last season. Bobby Johnson
is a good coach who will have his team ready to play. He is
also a Columbia native which only gives him even more desire
to win this game. Take the points.
Vanderbilt 1 UNIT
Notre Dame at BYU (Over 44) -
6:15pm Pacific (Saturday)
BYU head coach Gary Crowton is considered to be an
excellent offensive coach. He was the offensive
coordinator for the Chicago Bears four years ago, and
three years ago his first BYU team averaged a whopping
44.1 points per game. You can imagine how disappointed
and embarrassed he must be with the Cougars offensive
output the last two seasons. In particular last year when
BYU only averaged 16.3 points per game and in their season
finale were shut out for the first time in 28 years. The
offensive struggles can be attributed to a merry go round
at QB and several other injuries and suspensions to key
personnel. The Cougars returned just 3 offensive starters
in 2002 and 5 in 2003. Four different QB's saw
significant time in 2002 and 3 different in 2003 due to
injuries and erratic play. The 2004 BYU offense looks
to be much improved.
In the offseason Crowton promised to take responsibility
for play calling this year. Not only do I expect a big
offensive improvement, but you can be assured that the
Cougars will be taking to the air more often and
this years team is built just for that. BYU lost its top
two RB's to graduation and honor code violation but they
are loaded with talented receivers. Sophomore QB John
Beck has been named the opening game starter. Even as a
freshman last year he was the teams most consistent QB.
He is also said to have made great strides in the
offseason. Junior WR Chris Hale was probably the best
receiver on the team last year but was limited by injury.
Senior WR Rod Wilkerson has 22 career starts under his
belt. Sophomore TE Daniel Coats was unstoppable in many
games last year. He earned freshman all-American honors
and this year is on the Mackey Award watch list for the
nations top tight end. The big news at receiver is the
addition of JC all-American Todd Watkins. He is 6-3 and
is a speed burner. There has been a lot of hype
surrounding him and early reports indicate he is even
better than the hype. Insiders are already calling him
the best WR in the conference! The offensive line got a
new coach in Jeff Grimes (formerly at Arizona State) and
he has talent to work with. Last year three QB's combined
for only 12 touchdowns, threw 21 interceptions, and were
sacked 35 times. Expect a drastic improvement.
Defensively, BYU only returns 3 starters and they have
been dealt a rash of injuries on this side of the ball.
Their top two defensive tackles Manaia Brown and Daniel
Marquardt both were sidelined for the majority of fall
camp. Both are now expected to start but I do not
believe they will be at their best. Meanwhile, LB's
Paul Walkenhorst and Bryant Atkinson, two potential
starters will miss the season with injuries. Another
LB, touted JC transfer Lawrence Cowan is also out.
Starting "catback", sophomore K.C. Bills, recently
suffered a shoulder injury and will miss the season.
BYU gave up 25.8 points per game last season and it is
unlikely the defense will be any better this year,
especially early on.
Notre Dame returns 8 starters on offense and should do
much better than the 20.3ppg they averaged last season.
They received poor play from starter Carlyle Holiday at
QB and true freshman Brady Quinn came on to start the
final 9 games. Quinn got a fast education facing the
likes of Purdue, Pitt, USC, Boston College, and Florida
State last year. He did very well for a true freshman
and should have a nice sophomore year as he is
surrounded by very talented teammates at every
position. UND returns its top two receivers and 8 of
the their top 10 offensive lineman. They must replace
top RB Jones but they have plenty of talented backs.
Almost every starter in this unit came in highly
recruited out of high school. This will be the third
year in Willingham's offense and this should be by far
the most efficient passing game they have had since his
arrival.
Defensively, ND returns 6 starters but lost star leading
tackler Courtney Watson to the NFL. LB Brandon Hoye
(practiced for the first time in pads on Wednesday) who
was 2nd to Watson in tackles last year has missed
significant practice time leading up to this game but
now is expected to give it a go. The defensive line
lost two starters and the secondary is a big question
mark with three losses to graduation, two of which were
drafted. Starting CB was just decided a few days
ago and starting strong safety was just announced on
Wednesday. When CB Preston Jackson was named the
starter, there were a lot of moans and groans on the
Irish message boards as he is not a well regarded
player. Newly named starting SS Lionel Bolen has just
one career start and has been used sparingly in his
first three seasons. Additionally, last years sack
leader DE Justin Tuck (13.5 sacks) had knee surgery in
the offseason and coaches indicate they will use a four
man rotation at defensive end.
UND won last years meeting 33-14 (47 points) and I
expect both offenses to be significantly improved while
the two defenses will be similar at best. Both teams do
not have a big name running back to feature and will be
looking to pass to very talented receivers against
suspect secondaries. BYU in particular will be looking
to spread the field and put the ball in the air which
makes for a longer game and more opportunities for
points. BYU has averaged 45.3 points per game in season
openers in the Crowton era. Take the over.
Over 44 1 UNIT