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2004 - Week 13 - Final Report
Two RAS Plays:
North Carolina (-6.5) at Duke -
9:00am Pacific
The Tar Heels have put together as good of a run as I have
seen in the John Bunting era. They seem to really be
playing inspired football. All five of their losses this
season have come vs ranked opponents. They are 4-3 in a
tough ACC and can finish above .500 and become bowl eligible
with a win today. Since October 23 BYE week, the Tar Heels
beat Miami, Fla, put a major scare into Virginia Tech losing
by 3, and won on the road at Wake Forest last week. Only
Duke stands in the way of a perfect sweep of the instate
rival schools (NC State, Wake, Duke). Senior QB Darian
Durant has had an outstanding career and really deserves to
go out a winner. A loss here would end UNC's bowl hopes and
his career on a sour note. Duke got their big upset win
last week over Clemson on a late FG with the help of a +3
turnover ratio. The Blue Devils only other win this year
came over The Citadel. It is hard to expect near perfection
from them a second week in a row. Home field advantage is
almost negligible as the Tar Heels should have at least an
equal amount of support. This is North Carolina's first
role as a favorite all season and they are 6-1 ATS in ACC
games this year. They are also 6-1 the last seven years vs
Duke and 8-4 as a road favorite. UNC is the better team and
has much more to play for.
North Carolina 1 UNIT
Wisconsin at Iowa (Under 39.5) -
1:30pm Pacific
Even after last weeks debacle vs Michigan State, the Badger
defense still ranks 7th nationally in total defense and 3rd
nationally in scoring defense. That is how good of a year
they are having. There has been a lot of questions this week
about how the defense will bounce back from its only bad
outing of the season. Players and coaches both insist they
will return to form, and I have to believe they will after
last weeks embarrassment. They are too good not to. The last
time Iowa faced nearly this good of a defense, they scored
just 6 points at Penn State. On the other side of the ball,
the Hawkeyes come in ranked 7th nationally in total defense
and 13th nationally in scoring defense. They feature one of
the best front sevens in college football and it is a senior
laden group playing in their final home game. The Iowa
defense matches up very well against a run dominant Wisconsin
offense. The Badgers rank 95th in the country in passing
yardage heading into this week and it is unlikely that will
get any better after today. This game means a lot to both
teams and I expect it will be a very low scoring contest.
Under 39.5 1 UNIT
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