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2004 - Week 13 - Final Report

Two RAS Plays:
 
North Carolina (-6.5) at Duke - 9:00am Pacific
The Tar Heels have put together as good of a run as I have seen in the John Bunting era.  They seem to really be playing inspired football.  All five of their losses this season have come vs ranked opponents.  They are 4-3 in a tough ACC and can finish above .500 and become bowl eligible with a win today.  Since October 23 BYE week, the Tar Heels beat Miami, Fla, put a major scare into Virginia Tech losing by 3, and won on the road at Wake Forest last week.  Only Duke stands in the way of a perfect sweep of the instate rival schools (NC State, Wake, Duke).  Senior QB Darian Durant has had an outstanding career and really deserves to go out a winner.  A loss here would end UNC's bowl hopes and his career on a sour note.  Duke got their big upset win last week over Clemson on a late FG with the help of a +3 turnover ratio.  The Blue Devils only other win this year came over The Citadel.  It is hard to expect near perfection from them a second week in a row.  Home field advantage is almost negligible as the Tar Heels should have at least an equal amount of support.  This is North Carolina's first role as a favorite all season and they are 6-1 ATS in ACC games this year.  They are also 6-1 the last seven years vs Duke and 8-4 as a road favorite.  UNC is the better team and has much more to play for. 
 
North Carolina  1 UNIT
 
Wisconsin at Iowa (Under 39.5) - 1:30pm Pacific
Even after last weeks debacle vs Michigan State, the Badger defense still ranks 7th nationally in total defense and 3rd nationally in scoring defense.  That is how good of a year they are having.  There has been a lot of questions this week about how the defense will bounce back from its only bad outing of the season.  Players and coaches both insist they will return to form, and I have to believe they will after last weeks embarrassment.  They are too good not to.  The last time Iowa faced nearly this good of a defense, they scored just 6 points at Penn State.  On the other side of the ball, the Hawkeyes come in ranked 7th nationally in total defense and 13th nationally in scoring defense.  They feature one of the best front sevens in college football and it is a senior laden group playing in their final home game.  The Iowa defense matches up very well against a run dominant Wisconsin offense.  The Badgers rank 95th in the country in passing yardage heading into this week and it is unlikely that will get any better after today.  This game means a lot to both teams and I expect it will be a very low scoring contest.
 
Under 39.5   1 UNIT

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