Ohio State at Purdue (-4) - 12:30pm Pacific

The Boilermakers have lost four in a row for the first time ever in the Joe Tiller era.  The four losses have been by a combined 10 points.  The streak started with an unfortunate Kyle Orton fumble that was returned for the decisive touchdown in the closing minutes vs Wisconsin in a game that Purdue appeared to have in hand.  Another costly fumble the following week allowed Michigan to drive for a winning field goal and two point win.  The next two losses came on the road at Northwestern by 3 and last week at Iowa by 2.  Another Kyle Orton fumble led to Northwestern's first touchdown and the Wildcats drove 84 yards in the final minutes for the winning score.  Last week Purdue had two field goals blocked and committed 5 turnovers costing them a sure win at Iowa. 

 

Backup QB Brandon Kirsch is expected to make his second consecutive start this week.  Kirsch is a much better runner than Orton and is clearly the QB of the future here.  Some Purdue fans think he is better than Orton and wish he would have been named the starter this year.  Kirsch started 4 games as a true freshman two years ago before redshirting last year.  He has now seen enough game action this year to be comfortable and put up improved numbers.  Orton is listed as doubtful but probably would be available in an emergency situation which means Kirsch should have the green light to run more this week.  Standout WR Taylor Stubblefield has been slowed by a shoulder injury in recent weeks but Tiller said he is as healthy now as he has been in a month.  Purdue's offensive line is coming off its worst game of the season vs Iowa and they have promised to be more physical this week.  This offense will be in good shape.

 

Even with 8 new starters, Purdue has done very well defensively this year.  They come in ranked #8 nationally in run defense and #30 in total defense.  They have given up a lot of passing yards and rank #84 is passing defense but Ohio State does not have a good enough passing game or an experienced QB to take advantage of that.  In other words, the Purdue defense matches up very well here.

 

Ohio State comes in winners of three straight games but I have not been very impressed.  The first win came vs Indiana in Columbus, the second vs Penn State in Columbus in which they had a punt return and interception return for touchdowns in the first quarter, and last week at Michigan State in which they had a 17 yard drive following a turnover and a 60 yard punt return for touchdowns in the first quarter to open up a 17-0 early lead.  The ended up losing the lead in the 4th quarter before scoring two late TD's.  They were outgained by 100 total yards and only managed 12 first downs.  Even with the win, the Buckeyes are now 1-2 SU & ATS in Big 10 road games this year and 2-9 ATS in last 11.  They are 6-12 in any road situation under Tressel.

 

It is no secret that their have been off the field distractions this week at Ohio State.  ESPN The Magazine published new quotes of accusations by former RB Maurice Clarett.  Some new and some old and they caused both athletic director and head coach Tressel to make statements defending themselves.  On Thursday, former basketball coach Tom O'Brien filed a lawsuit against the school as well.  Combined with the fact that Ohio State (3-7-1 ATS week before Michigan last 11 years) has Michigan at the Horseshoe next week, they may not be as focused as they would like.  I do not think Ohio State is very good to begin with.  You can look up and down their schedule and not find a single quality win this season.  Even their losses are unimpressive.  Purdue will be looking to avenge two straight narrow losses to Ohio State, both of which they should have won, end their four game losing streak, and give Joe Tiller his 100th career victory that has been on hold for over a month now, all in one game today.  Under Tiller, Purdue is 26-13 ATS in the role of home favorite.  Give the points.

 

Purdue   2 UNITS