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Three RAS Plays:

Minnesota at Indiana (Over 56) - 11:00am Pacific

Not much analysis goes into this one. Minnesota comes in ranked 3rd in the nation in rushing offense, 7th in the nation in total offense, and 21st in the nation in scoring offense at 34.88ppg. Indiana comes in ranked 101st vs the run, 110th in total defense, and allows 30.1ppg. North Carolina is the only BCS conference team ranked below the Hoosiers in total defense. Indiana has given up 35.40ppg in their last five outings. Even Ohio State with a backup QB was able to get 30 points last week. Indiana enters this game with their top CB Tracy Porter listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury suffered last week. Porter is 6th on the team in tackles and leads the team in both interceptions (3) and pass break-ups (6). LB Paul Szczesny (third on team in tackles) is listed as questionable. He was playing JC last year and the fact that a first year JC transfer can be the third leading tackler here shows just how talent deficient this Indiana defense is compared to the rest of the Big 10.

On the other side of the ball, Indiana's offense has been a pleasant surprise this year. They are averaging a respectable 24ppg, almost a full 10 points better than last season. They are solid at the skill positions with senior QB LoVecchio, senior WR Roby, and sophomore RB Green-Ellis. Minnesota has given up 78 points (39ppg) in their only two Big 10 road games this season. It is homecoming week for Indiana and expect them to have some scoring opportunities.

Minnesota rushed for 435 yards (7.0 per carry) in last years meeting and basically return with the same running backs and offensive line in tact. Minnesota can pass the ball when they need to. Junior WR Ellerson is a reliable goto target and big freshman Wheelright (26.9ypc) is a future all-conference player. Simply put, this is a big play quick strike offense. Minnesota has outscored opponents 279 to 160 but have done it with less time of possession. The Gophers scored 55 points on their own last season vs Indiana and just based on the statistics above it is highly probable they will at least surpass 40 points this week. Indiana is good for at least 17 points of their own. It would not surprise me to see a 28 point quarter somewhere and a final score in the 70's.

OVER 56 1 UNIT

New Mexico (+2.5) at Colorado State - 12:00 noon Pacific

Since Rocky Long took over at New Mexico, the Lobos have consistently been a good bet in conference games and during the second half of the season. New Mexico is now 29-15 ATS (65.9%) in conference play under Long. Since 2001, the Lobos are 6-11 ATS in first five games of the regular season and an incredible 19-5 ATS (2-1 ATS this year) in game six and beyond. The Lobos enter this game with some momentum stemming from a season high two game win streak. They beat SDSU 19-9 handily last week but the game was not that close. The Lobos are still getting inconsistent QB play, but sophomore Kole McKamey seems to just miss big play opportunities each week. They offense actually looked solid in the first half last week against a very good SDSU defense but seemed to lose its edge in the second half. Most of the time the New Mexico running game is good enough to win on its own with standout RB Dontrell Moore (211.5ypg in last two meetings vs CSU) running behind a huge and very good offensive line. That should definitely be the case this week against a Colorado State defense that ranks 100th against the run. The Lobos have a nice big play threat in junior WR Hank Baskett, but his potential has for the most part remained untapped to this point. Defensively, the Lobos have been solid despite being very undersized. Long's 3-3-5 defense has ranked in the top 30 four straight seasons and currently sits at 35th this year. They held SDSU to just 146 total yards last week and registered 5 sacks.

The best thing Colorado State had going this year was the strong play of junior QB Justin Holland, but he went down with a season ending injury two weeks ago vs SDSU. CSU has averaged over 100 yards less in passing yardage per game the last two weeks without Holland. In the SDSU game CSU was outplayed from the beginning but used a 71 yard INT runback and scored a late TD after a phantom fumble call game the Rams the ball at the 15 yard line when all SDSU had to do was run the clock out. Last week, the Rams looked good in a nationally televised win over Wyoming. However, they really had things go their way as they were able to run the ball on a suspect Wyoming defense and benefitted from two defensive touchdowns. Their two game win streak and 2-1 MWC record is really misleading. CSU will have its hands full on both sides of the line of scrimmage this week. True freshman QB Caleb Hanie (11-for-22, 1 int in first start) will be under a lot more pressure without an effective running game. That is a likely scenario as CSU ranks 7th in the MWC in rush offense while New Mexico ranks 2nd in the league in rush defense. CSU starting left tackle Mike Brisiel (shoulder) is listed as doubtful which will hurt their chances of a successful running game even more. Most importantly, CSU's true freshman QB will be facing one of the most complex defensive blitzing schemes in the country in just his second career start. The New Mexico defense is well known for giving young QB's fits (just ask SDSU's O'Connell) and there is none younger or more inexperienced at this stage than CSU's Hanie. Free safety Ben Stratton (leading tackler, concussion) and MLB Courtney Jones (shoulder, tackle for loss leader) have been slowed by injuries. Both are listed as questionable as of this writing but I suspect they will play. In addition to conference play and second half of season success, the Lobos have also been a solid bet on the road going 9-2 ATS in last 11 away games.

New Mexico 1 UNIT

Oregon State at Arizona (Under 42) - 4:00pm Pacific

The Beavers come in averaging 22.85 points per game. That number is helped by an overtime touchdown vs LSU and a 34 point effort in super high scoring game at Boise. The offense has generally been inconsistent most of the season. Oregon State ranks near the bottom of the nation in rushing yardage and penalties per game. They have shown ability to make big plays in the passing game, but the Wildcats have been fairly good at not giving up big plays this year. Meanwhile, with the exception of games vs Boise & Cal, the Oregon State defense has been solid. No other opponent has reached 20 points in regulation play. Overall they rank 34th in the country in total defense allowing 322.14 yards per game. That is impressive considering they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country (at LSU, at Boise, vs Cal, at Arizona State).

Arizona ranks a very respectable 53rd in the nation in total defense allowing 353.86 yards per game. That stat is impressive considering how inept their offense has been. The Wildcat defense has been put in bad field position many times but still have done a good job. Even last weeks 38 points allowed to Cal was a bit misleading. It was a 14-0 game late in the 2nd quarter before Cal punched in two touchdowns in the final 2 1/2 minutes, the last one aided by an interception. Cal only scored 10 points in the second half, the only touchdown coming on a 10 yard drive following a fumble. Seventeen different Wildcat defenders have registered at least one tackle for loss this season. They run every zone blitz scheme there is and the young secondary is already establishing a reputation of hard hitting physical play. Offense has not been pretty for Arizona. They rank dead last in the nation in scoring and if you take away their 21 points vs Northern Arizona in season opener, they are averaging just 10.25 points a game. There is also uncertainty at the QB position where redshirt freshman Richard Kovalcheck started his first college game last week. He is expected to see most of the action again with former starter Heavner possibly seeing some action as well. Kovalcheck went 13-for-32 with 1 interception in his first start last week.

Clearly, Arizona wants to run the ball this week. They think they can have some success against an average Oregon State run defense. Meanwhile, Oregon State has been working hard to establish a running game themselves. Coach Mike Riley has emphasized this week how important it is for the offense to be balanced. Arizona has lost 6 straight games but definitely should have beaten Washington State and was right on the doorstep to beating Wisconsin. Counting both tenures, the Beavers are 16-8 at home and 4-15 on the road in Pac-10 games under Mike Riley. Oregon State may also be looking ahead to hosting #1 USC next week. While the Beavers should win this, I do expect a very competitive, hard fought game. Arizona has played five homes this year and the average combined score has been 29.2, with no game reaching 40. Expect that trend to continue this week.

UNDER 42 1 UNIT