Penn State -2 over Iowa

The Nittany Lions played well and fought hard vs Purdue two weeks ago but just came up short, losing by a touchdown.  They had a first and goal opportunity to take the lead in the second half but ended up with no points.  In fact they had a total of four second half drives end in Purdue territory with no points including one in the final minute.  This team obviously plays its best in Happy Valley where they have now covered 5 straight games dating back to last season.  Penn State is still playing terrific defense.  After holding Minnesota on the road to just 16 two games back, they held Purdue to just 20 points last week, 27.5 points below their season average heading into the game.  This week, PSU will get some offensive help with the return of triple threat QB/RB/WR Michael Robinson who has sat out the last two games with a concussion.  Paterno said he was close to playing last game and should be ready to go this week.  Iowa is coming off a big home win over Ohio State, 33-7.  Sophomore QB Drew Tate is coming off the best game of his career but still has 6 interceptions this year and zero road wins.  Iowa still has issues on the offensive line and RB.  They have allowed 19 sacks and are only averaging 2.6 yards per carry far below averages of previous two seasons.  The Hawkeyes are also are down to their 4th string RB due to injuries.  Iowa is just 2-5 (0-2 this year) straight up and ATS on the road since Heisman runner up Brad Banks graduated in 2002.  Penn State is 6-4 ATS in homecoming games and 8-5 ATS after a BYE week.  Penn State gets over the hump this week.  Give the small number.

 

Clemson -3.5 over Maryland

The Tigers come in with a 2-4 record and are in must win mode.  Clemson started the season ranked in the top 25 but turnovers and a difficult schedule has them off to a disappointing start.  They played three consecutive road games at Texas A&M, at Florida State, and at Virginia.  All three teams are currently ranked in the top 25 and each is undefeated at home.  Making matters worse Clemson was -12 (-2.4 per game) in turnover ratio after five games.  I believe this is still a good football team.  QB Charlie Whitehurst is among the best in the country and there is solid talent surrounding him.  WR Kelvin Grant (second on team in receptions) will return this week from a two game suspension.  The Tigers are coming off a "get well" beating of Utah State 35-6 last week.  Both the offense in defense had performances to be proud of.  This will be their first meaningful home game in six weeks and they will be looking to beat Maryland for the first time since 2000.  The Terrapins have convincingly proven that their offense is inept right now.  For two consecutive weeks they have not managed to surpass 100 yards of total offense.  They earned just 5 first downs vs NC State last week and would have been shutout if not for converting a FG following a fumbled punt return.  QB Statham is battling confidence issues and true freshman backup Steffy is not ready for ACC action quite yet.  The offensive line has had problems with injuries as well.  Nice opportunity for Clemson here.

 

Missouri -3 over Oklahoma State

The Tigers came up short on the road at Texas last week but outgained the Longhorns by 59 yards and had 3 more first downs.  They only lost by 8 and Texas benefited from an early defensive score and a short 2 play, 12 yard touchdown drive in the third quarter following a turnover.  I remain high on this team.  All of their remaining games are winnable and this game will be critical in determining what type of bowl game they end up in.  The Tigers enter the contest on a 9 game home win streak.  They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs Big 12 opponents and are 16-8 ATS as a home favorite since 1997.  Prior to last week, Oklahoma State has feasted on mediocre opponents who could not stop the run.  Their one dimensional offense and very suspect defense were finally exposed last week vs Texas A&M who opened up a 33-6 lead and coasted home.  Missouri's Brad Smith and company should be able to do damage and the Mizzou run defense is good enough to keep the OSU offense in check.  The Cowboys are just 3-7 ATS in the away dog role and this will be the first road start for freshman QB Woods as a dog.  OSU could also possibly be looking ahead to highly anticipated matchup vs Oklahoma following this.  Mizzou is 6-1 ATS in last seven meetings with OSU.  It is homecoming week for the Tigers and I expect a solid win from them.

 

Louisiana Tech -2 over UTEP

The Bulldogs are undefeated this year when not playing on the road against a top 10 ranked opponent.  All three of their losses came at Miami Fla, at Tennessee, and at Auburn.  They are 3-0 in all other games and are currently undefeated in WAC play.  They feature outstanding junior RB Ryan Moats who is currently third nationally in rushing yards.  La Tech owns a high quality win over Fresno State when Fresno was still undefeated and had BCS hopes.  UTEP also beat Fresno but in much different circumstances as Fresno was deflated following their first loss.  The Miners' last two wins are very misleading.  In game at Fresno State they intercepted a deflected pass and returned it for a touchdown on the first series of the game.  Then just as Fresno was about to assume control in the second half, UTEP converted a fluke 91 yard bomb.  Last week vs Hawaii, UTEP started its first two drives on the Hawaii 18 and quickly went up 14-0.  They were able to pull away from a Hawaii team that is virtually helpless on defense due to lack of talent and injuries.  The Miners are on top of the world right now having won as many games already this season as the last two years combined but I think they are in store for a wake up call this week.  The road win at Fresno was just their second in 20 attempts.  Sophomore QB Palmer has been interception prone.  He has thrown 10 in the four meaningful games UTEP has played this year.  Look for La Tech to remain undefeated at home and in conference play.

 

Michigan +4.5 over Purdue

Have to love the way Michigan is playing right now.  Freshman Chad Henne has really developed as a QB.  He can pretty much make all of the throws now.  After seeing his last few performances, I believe Michigan is the most talented team in the Big 10.  Fellow true freshman Michael Hart is looking like a better runner every week.  The Wolverine receiving unit may be the best in the country led by the dominant Braylon Edwards.  The offensive line is opening up holes and providing solid protection.  There are just too many weapons for a defense to attend to.  Defensively, they are above average or better at every position and currently rank 16th nationally in total yardage allowed.  Michigan was definitely in a "sandwich" situation last week playing at Illinois in-between games vs two (at the time undefeated) ranked opponents.  They fell behind 17-10 at half-time to the Illini but dominated in the second half like a good team should do.  This team has shown a real camaraderie that I have not seen from many teams this year and it should bode well for them.  Purdue is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin.  It will be interesting to see how they respond this week.  It will take nothing less than their very best to win this game outright.  Michigan matches up well on both sides of the ball, particularly the offense vs Purdue's young defense.  Lloyd Carr is 9-4 ATS all-time at Michigan when not favored.  Two of those ATS losses came by a combined 3 points.  Eight of the nine games Michigan won outright, the only loss coming by a point at Purdue in 2000.  Since then, Michigan has won three straight and has held the Purdue offense to just 11.33ppg.