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Three early looks this week:

Air Force +1 over Navy (Thursday)
Not much was expected from this years Falcon team. They only return 6 starters from last season which is low even for a service academy. Surprisingly, thus far Air Force looks like the second best team in the MWC. An even bigger surprise is that they are led by a freshman QB. Shaun Carney came from practically nowhere to earn the starting job and is doing incredibly well. He is a tough runner (296 yards in 4 games) like traditional Air Force QB's, but has a much better throwing touch. Carney has completed 70.17% of his passes with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio thus far. Just for reference, AF QB's usually complete around 50%. Last years well regarded starting QB Chance Harridge completed 49.7% as a senior. Carney has looked nothing like a freshman and could be one of the school's all time greats before he is done. Air Force already has a quality road win at UNLV and has already played two top 15 teams in Cal and Utah. They led 14-0 in the 2nd quarter as a +21 dog last week at Utah before losing 49-35. Air Force was hurt by a blocked punt and 3 turnovers including one in which QB Carney was clearly down on his back but it was still ruled a fumble. Air Force was driving and down only 7 in the 2nd half at the time. Navy is coming off a close win over a snake bitten Vanderbilt team. Navy was aided by two Vandy lost fumbles, the only turnovers of the game, and by the fact that Vandy's starting FS Kelechi Ohanaja, and DE Aaron Carter missed the game with injuries. Ohanaja still leads Vandy in tackles, despite only playing in 2 of 3 games so his absence was significant. Navy is now 4-0, but none of the teams they have beaten owns a single I-A win. Both teams are on a short week, but Navy loses more time by having to travel. Air Force has won 20 of the last 24 meetings. Expect a Falcon victory.

UCLA -5.5 over San Diego State
The UCLA offense has been strong all season and appears to be getting better every game. They only scored 20 points in season opener vs Oklahoma State, but they did rack up 443 total yards and both numbers would have been higher if not for a -4 turnover ratio. They came back to score 35 in next game at Illinois and would have scored more if not for a botched goal line series in the second half. Last week UCLA put up 37 points at Washington and did not even show much of their offense. They only attempted 17 passes due to tremendous success running the ball. As expected, first year offensive coordinator Tom Cable is doing a great job here. Cable is also the new offensive line coach. The offensive line has not only paved the way for a dominating running game, but they have only allowed only one sack through three games. QB Drew Olson is looking more and more comfortable with the new offense each game and he still has plenty of receiving weapons even without #1 WR Bragg who is out with an injury. RB's Manual White and Maurice Drew easily form the best combo in the West. The weakness of this UCLA team is their questionable defense, particularly against the run. They are very young in the front seven and have battled some key injuries but they should benefit greatly from their BYE week. Starting MLB Justin London (Butkus watch list, called QB of the defense) has been hampered by an ankle injury all season. He did not play vs Oklahoma State and played sparingly vs Illinois. He started vs Washington two weeks ago but aggravated the injury on the first play of the game and did not return. He is expected to be ready for this game and should provide a big lift. Defensive coordinator Larry Kerr is a good one and will have this unit improving. For the second straight year, SDSU put a scare into a highly ranked Big 10 team. Last year they lost 13-10 at Ohio State, and this year lost 24-21 at Michigan. The Aztecs did not make much noise (1-3-1 ATS next five games) after the close loss at Ohio State last year, and I suspect this year will be a similar scenario. The Aztecs have been hurt by injuries on offense. Two offensive line starters left last game with injuries, and WR's Williams & Pitts (second leading receiver last year) have been out of the lineup. Meanwhile, last year’s freshman sensation RB Lynell Hamilton has been forced to redshirt due to a chronic ankle problem. UCLA is returning home after winning two straight on the road. They are coming off an important BYE week and have too much positive momentum right now to slip up here. Give the points.

UTEP -5 over New Mexico State
Things are really looking up for Miner football. Former Washington State and Alabama head coach Mike Price has brought excitement back into this program despite three consecutive two win seasons. UTEP has an experienced team with 17 returning starters and they have already showed significant improvement under Price's direction. The Miners have faced two nationally ranked opponents and gave respectable showings in both games. They started the season losing at Arizona State but bounced back to shutout I-AA Weber State 32-0. Two weeks ago they led Boise State for most of the game before giving way late. That performance has the Miners believing in themselves and in Price. Sophomore QB Jordan Palmer (brother of Carson) fits the Mike Price offense perfectly. He has good size and strength. Palmer has been a little inconsistent, but has made some really nice throws and should keep getting better. NMSU was pushed all over the field by instate rival New Mexico last week. The Aggies only gained 41 yards in the first half and did not cross midfield until the final play of the 3rd quarter. It gets worse, #1 QB Buck Pierce (69.12% completions, 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio) suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder and did not return. As of this writing, he is listed as questionable for this game. Even if he plays it is unlikely that he will be 100%. #2 QB Paul Dombrowski has starting experience but is just 5-for-20 with one interception so far this season. This is a big rivalry game in these parts and the first real test for UTEP in the Mike Price era. It is also UTEP's first home favorite situation since 2002. Miners have had a BYE week to prepare for this and have much more positive momentum heading in. Expect a good showing.