Wake Forest -1.5 over Boston College
Last season
the Deacons stole a win at BC with a narrow 32-28 come
from behind win on the road. That was an extremely young
team with only 3 returning offensive starters. This is a
much more experienced Wake team and this one is being
played in Winston-Salem. Everyone has to love what fourth
year head coach Jim Grobe has done with this program. His
unorthodox misdirection offense is very difficult for
teams to prepare for and he has an experienced junior QB
in Cory Randolph who is now in his second year as a
starter running the system. Randolph earned ACC player of
the week honors for his efforts two weeks ago at East
Carolina when he passed for 344 yards, ran for 116 yards,
and completed 76.19% of his passes. Senior WR Jason
Anderson is one of the most underrated receivers in the
country and will play on Sunday's next year. Junior RB
Barclay and speedy WR Idlette compliment the offense
nicely. Like many other teams this year (see Arizona
State), Wake has switched from a 4-2-5 to a traditional
4-3 set and so far it has worked well. This unit was warn
down at the end of last season but has 8 starters back and
can be very effective. BC has had everything go their way
in two recent home wins. They were +4 turnovers in a 21-7
win over Penn State and last Friday beat UConn 27-7 in a
game that was much more closely contested than the final
score indicates. The Huskies fumbled the opening kickoff
leading to a BC touchdown and later missed a short field
goal that would have cut the lead to 17-10 in the 3rd
quarter. UConn had success both running and throwing and
that should be a concern for BC as they come in to face a
very good and balanced Wake offense. The Deacons looked
good in season opener at Clemson. They started the game
flat but once they got going took control of the game and
were leading by 8 until Clemson's final drive sent the
game in to overtime. This is an underrated Wake team.
Last year in addition to winning at BC, they beat NC State
& Clemson while losing to Purdue by just 6 in a very close
game and by 3 at Virginia in a game they led throughout.
This years team is clearly better.
Michigan State -3 over Indiana
The Spartans
were for the most part noncompetitive for three quarters
vs Notre Dame on Saturday due to inept QB play. Starter
Stephan Reaves finished 7-for-20 with 3 interceptions
before being pulled. The big story of the game was the
play of QB Drew Stanton. Stanton was expected to be the
starting QB this year but suffered an ACL injury in last
years bowl game on a special teams play and his recovery
has taken longer than expected. In his first extensive
action of the season he was 8-for-12 for 110 yards and
rushed for another 49. His solid play and leadership
really brought life to this offense. He led the team on
three long drives, one for a FG, one for a TD, and one
that ended on a fumble at the 1 yard line. Barring any
physical setbacks, Stanton should make his first start
this week and be a big positive for this team. Indiana
was brought back to reality last week vs Kentucky. The
Hoosiers gave up 51 points and 560 total yards. The 19
point final losing margin would have been bigger if not
for a 3rd quarter fumble return and a 64 yard pass in
garbage time for touchdowns. Michigan State can ill
afford a 1-3 start. The Spartans won last years meeting
31-3 and should take care of business here.
Virginia Tech -7.5 over NC State
There was
little question that Frank Beamer would have the Hokies
ready to play this year after their disappointing finish
last season. They came a few big plays away from
upsetting #1 USC in their season opener and since have
feasted on weaker opponents in preparation for "real" ACC
play. Senior QB Bryan Randall means everything to this
team. Beamer called his play "perfect" prior to last
weeks win over Duke. Randall is a big time playmaker and
leader. His running ability means defenses have to almost
always leave a spy on him and he has the ability to pass
for big yardage as well. The Hokies have averaged 39
points per game in 3 outings. Meanwhile, the Virginia
Tech defense looks rejuvenated after some embarrassing
performances last year. They are giving up just 13.6ppg
and Duke's only meaningful score last week was set up by
good field position from a turnover. NC State put
everything they had into trying to beat Ohio State last
week but they could not get it done. The Wolfpack just do
not have a QB right now who is good enough to enable them
to compete at the level they came to expect during the
Phillip Rivers era. Starter Jay Davis went 12-for-24 but
for only 99 yards and threw three interceptions. Things
do not get any easier. They now must hit the road for the
first time this season and play a somewhat unfamiliar
opponent. The Hokies are always tough in Blacksburg.
Under Beamer they are 24-16 ATS here since 1998.
Notre Dame -11 over Washington
The Irish did
not play their best game at Michigan State but were
virtually in control throughout despite giving up a
blocked punt and kickoff return for touchdowns. It was
still a quality win considering it was a road game coming
after a huge emotional win over Michigan. The Notre Dame
offensive line is starting to assert itself more and more
each game. It has resulted in improvement in both the
running and passing game. True freshman RB Darius Walker
is going to be a great one and combined with senior Ryan
Grant gives them two quality backs to work with. The
Notre Dame defense has been solid all season. Washington
is in a bit of disarray right now. I do not think head
coach Keith Gilbertson is going to last very long here.
The Huskies looked awful in season opener vs Fresno State,
and despite a BYE week between games did not look much
better vs UCLA last week. Washington was able to
establish a running game but that was against a porous
Bruin run defense that lost its leader LB Justin London
very early in the game to a re aggravated ankle injury.
Other than a big play as a result of a blown coverage, the
Washington passing game was almost non-existent. First
year starter QB Casey Paus finished just 13-of-29 despite
facing a defense that was scrambling to stop the run.
UCLA gave Washington 3 early turnovers and a 24-7 first
quarter lead but the Huskies were already trailing by
half-time. UCLA ran through the Washington defense like
it was a high school team. The Bruins finished the day
with 424 yards rushing. Washington will be making their
first road trip of the season. They were 1-4 ATS on the
road last season, and that was with an experienced QB.
They are not going to be able to run on the Irish defense
like they did on UCLA and therefore will have a very
difficult time scoring.
UAB
+2 over Memphis
This is
a good, underrated Blazer team. They only had 9 seniors
last year and had to battle through several injuries,
including starting QB Darrell Hackney who missed the last
five games. They still finished 5-8 and lost to Southern
Miss (5), at TCU (3), and at Georgia (3) by a combined 11
points. This year almost everyone is back and not just
the starters but most of the top backups as well. Hackney
is back healthy at QB. He is a good dual threat
playmaker. The defense has 10 starters back and many
quality reserves. Well regarded defensive coordinator
Wayne Bolt implemented a new system last year and they
should only be better in his second year. UAB hammered
Baylor 56-14 in season opener before losing at Florida
State last week. They were unfortunate to get the
Seminoles fresh off of their bitter loss to Miami, Fla.
The Blazers will find C-USA foes much more to their
liking. UAB won at Memphis 24-10 last year as a +9.5 dog
and has the third best conference record in C-USA over the
past five seasons. Memphis got a solid win at Ole Miss in
their season opener but that was before Ole Miss had their
QB situation in order. The Tiger offense appears in good
shape but their defense was exposed last week at Arkansas
State. Joe Lee Dunn's unit is replacing five of their top
six tacklers from a year ago and they were torched by ASU
for 35 points and 507 total yards. Memphis needed a
fumble return with 2:22 left in the game to take their
first lead as they really struggled to win outright as a
-24 favorite. This will be their second straight road
game and third in four games. UAB is 4-0 SU and ATS in
this series. The Blazers are 10-3 ATS as a home dog under
Watson Brown.