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2004 - Week 5 - Early Looks

Five early looks this week:
 
Wake Forest -1.5 over Boston College
Last season the Deacons stole a win at BC with a narrow 32-28 come from behind win on the road.  That was an extremely young team with only 3 returning offensive starters.  This is a much more experienced Wake team and this one is being played in Winston-Salem.  Everyone has to love what fourth year head coach Jim Grobe has done with this program.  His unorthodox misdirection offense is very difficult for teams to prepare for and he has an experienced junior QB in Cory Randolph who is now in his second year as a starter running the system.  Randolph earned ACC player of the week honors for his efforts two weeks ago at East Carolina when he passed for 344 yards, ran for 116 yards, and completed 76.19% of his passes.  Senior WR Jason Anderson is one of the most underrated receivers in the country and will play on Sunday's next year.  Junior RB Barclay and speedy WR Idlette compliment the offense nicely.  Like many other teams this year (see Arizona State), Wake has switched from a 4-2-5 to a traditional 4-3 set and so far it has worked well.  This unit was warn down at the end of last season but has 8 starters back and can be very effective.  BC has had everything go their way in two recent home wins.  They were +4 turnovers in a 21-7 win over Penn State and last Friday beat UConn 27-7 in a game that was much more closely contested than the final score indicates.  The Huskies fumbled the opening kickoff leading to a BC touchdown and later missed a short field goal that would have cut the lead to 17-10 in the 3rd quarter.  UConn had success both running and throwing and that should be a concern for BC as they come in to face a very good and balanced Wake offense.  The Deacons looked good in season opener at Clemson.  They started the game flat but once they got going took control of the game and were leading by 8 until Clemson's final drive sent the game in to overtime.  This is an underrated Wake team.  Last year in addition to winning at BC, they beat NC State & Clemson while losing to Purdue by just 6 in a very close game and by 3 at Virginia in a game they led throughout.  This years team is clearly better.
 
Michigan State -3 over Indiana
The Spartans were for the most part noncompetitive for three quarters vs Notre Dame on Saturday due to inept QB play.  Starter Stephan Reaves finished 7-for-20 with 3 interceptions before being pulled.  The big story of the game was the play of QB Drew Stanton.  Stanton was expected to be the starting QB this year but suffered an ACL injury in last years bowl game on a special teams play and his recovery has taken longer than expected.  In his first extensive action of the season he was 8-for-12 for 110 yards and rushed for another 49.  His solid play and leadership really brought life to this offense.  He led the team on three long drives, one for a FG, one for a TD, and one that ended on a fumble at the 1 yard line.  Barring any physical setbacks, Stanton should make his first start this week and be a big positive for this team.  Indiana was brought back to reality last week vs Kentucky.  The Hoosiers gave up 51 points and 560 total yards.  The 19 point final losing margin would have been bigger if not for a 3rd quarter fumble return and a 64 yard pass in garbage time for touchdowns.  Michigan State can ill afford a 1-3 start.  The Spartans won last years meeting 31-3 and should take care of business here.
 
Virginia Tech -7.5 over NC State
There was little question that Frank Beamer would have the Hokies ready to play this year after their disappointing finish last season.  They came a few big plays away from upsetting #1 USC in their season opener and since have feasted on weaker opponents in preparation for "real" ACC play.  Senior QB Bryan Randall means everything to this team.  Beamer called his play "perfect" prior to last weeks win over Duke.  Randall is a big time playmaker and leader. His running ability means defenses have to almost always leave a spy on him and he has the ability to pass for big yardage as well.  The Hokies have averaged 39 points per game in 3 outings.  Meanwhile, the Virginia Tech defense looks rejuvenated after some embarrassing performances last year.  They are giving up just 13.6ppg and Duke's only meaningful score last week was set up by good field position from a turnover.  NC State put everything they had into trying to beat Ohio State last week but they could not get it done.  The Wolfpack just do not have a QB right now who is good enough to enable them to compete at the level they came to expect during the Phillip Rivers era.  Starter Jay Davis went 12-for-24 but for only 99 yards and threw three interceptions.  Things do not get any easier.  They now must hit the road for the first time this season and play a somewhat unfamiliar opponent.  The Hokies are always tough in Blacksburg.  Under Beamer they are 24-16 ATS here since 1998.
 
Notre Dame -11 over Washington
The Irish did not play their best game at Michigan State but were virtually in control throughout despite giving up a blocked punt and kickoff return for touchdowns.  It was still a quality win considering it was a road game coming after a huge emotional win over Michigan.  The Notre Dame offensive line is starting to assert itself more and more each game.  It has resulted in improvement in both the running and passing game.  True freshman RB Darius Walker is going to be a great one and combined with senior Ryan Grant gives them two quality backs to work with.  The Notre Dame defense has been solid all season.  Washington is in a bit of disarray right now.  I do not think head coach Keith Gilbertson is going to last very long here.  The Huskies looked awful in season opener vs Fresno State, and despite a BYE week between games did not look much better vs UCLA last week.  Washington was able to establish a running game but that was against a porous Bruin run defense that lost its leader LB Justin London very early in the game to a re aggravated ankle injury.  Other than a big play as a result of a blown coverage, the Washington passing game was almost non-existent.  First year starter QB Casey Paus finished just 13-of-29 despite facing a defense that was scrambling to stop the run.  UCLA gave Washington 3 early turnovers and a 24-7 first quarter lead but the Huskies were already trailing by half-time.  UCLA ran through the Washington defense like it was a high school team.  The Bruins finished the day with 424 yards rushing.  Washington will be making their first road trip of the season.  They were 1-4 ATS on the road last season, and that was with an experienced QB.  They are not going to be able to run on the Irish defense like they did on UCLA and therefore will have a very difficult time scoring.
 
UAB +2 over Memphis
This is a good, underrated Blazer team.  They only had 9 seniors last year and had to battle through several injuries, including starting QB Darrell Hackney who missed the last five games.  They still finished 5-8 and lost to Southern Miss (5), at TCU (3), and at Georgia (3) by a combined 11 points.  This year almost everyone is back and not just the starters but most of the top backups as well.  Hackney is back healthy at QB.  He is a good dual threat playmaker.  The defense has 10 starters back and many quality reserves.  Well regarded defensive coordinator Wayne Bolt implemented a new system last year and they should only be better in his second year.  UAB hammered Baylor 56-14 in season opener before losing at Florida State last week.  They were unfortunate to get the Seminoles fresh off of their bitter loss to Miami, Fla.  The Blazers will find C-USA foes much more to their liking.  UAB won at Memphis 24-10 last year as a +9.5 dog and has the third best conference record in C-USA over the past five seasons.  Memphis got a solid win at Ole Miss in their season opener but that was before Ole Miss had their QB situation in order.  The Tiger offense appears in good shape but their defense was exposed last week at Arkansas State.  Joe Lee Dunn's unit is replacing five of their top six tacklers from a year ago and they were torched by ASU for 35 points and 507 total yards.  Memphis needed a fumble return with 2:22 left in the game to take their first lead as they really struggled to win outright as a -24 favorite.  This will be their second straight road game and third in four games.  UAB is 4-0 SU and ATS in this series.  The Blazers are 10-3 ATS as a home dog under Watson Brown. 

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