Georgia Tech +4 over Virginia Tech (Thursday)

I see these two teams about even talentwise which makes this an easy play on the Yellow Jackets getting +4 at home.  Georgia Tech appears to have turned the corner in last two games beating Maryland and Duke handily.  The GT defense limited Maryland to just 81 total yards and Duke to just 184.  The defensive line is said to have made significant strides in recent weeks, especially junior DE Eric Henderson (1st team ACC last year) who was limited early on in the season with an injury.  They now have a solid 6 man rotation and have dominated their last two opponents.  Duke's only points of the game came off a turnover and Maryland's only score came late in the 4th quarter with a 20-0 score.  Offensively the Jackets have yet to hit on all cylinders but hey have plenty of weapons with dual threat QB Reggie Ball, RB P.J. Daniels, and a good looking group of receivers.  Virginia Tech has not been that impressive in their last two ACC contests.  They lost at home to NC State and with the help of a few breaks just squeaked past Wake Forest on the road.  Even with a mobile QB like Bryan Randall they have allowed 21 sacks and their talent at RB and WR has really dropped off from in recent years.  True freshman WR Eddie Royal has become the teams top receiving threat but he is currently listed as questionable for this game due to illness.  The Hokies are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and are 5-10 ATS the past three years in last five regular season games.  Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS at home on Thursdays since 1994 and 8-4 ATS as a home dog since 1997.

 

Clemson +3 over NC State

The Tigers finally broke through with a big win over Maryland last week.  They struggled on offense throughout the game and failed to convert on a big 4th and 1 in the red zone early on in the second half but drove the length of the field on their last drive of the game for the winning touchdown.  Meanwhile, the defense held Maryland in check throughout the game.  The Terps only points were the direct result of a blocked punt in the first half.  All game long the Tigers played with heart and resiliency that you do not always see from them.  The offense overall had a disappointing game, but with Bowden as coach and Whitehurst at QB, I am confident they will eventually breakthrough.  The offense has had the benefit of facing several very good defenses already this year and should be prepared for everything NC State will throw at them.  Clemson held the Wolfpack to just 15 points in a narrow 2 point loss in Raleigh last year.  This time around NC State does not have the services of Phillip Rivers and Clemson is at home.  The Wolfpack are coming off an ugly loss to Miami on national television.  It was their second disappointing loss in a nationally hyped home game this season.  They lost to Ohio State early on in the season in a big revenge situation and lost to Miami, Fla last week with the ESPN gameday crew on campus.  I do not think NC State has anything left in the tank emotionally to get up for another big conference road game.  Clemson has much more positive momentum heading into this.  NC State is just 4-9 ATS in the role of the away favorite under Chuck Amato.  Clemson has won 6 of 7 ACC games outright at home. 

 

New Mexico +3.5 at Colorado State

The Lobos begin to thrive late in the season and in conference play.  Under Rocky Long New Mexico is 28-19 ATS in conference play.  Since 2001, the Lobos are 6-11 ATS in first five games of the regular season and a whopping 19-5 ATS (2-1 ATS this year) in game six and beyond.  New Mexico comes in on a two game win streak.  They beat SDSU 19-9 last week but the game was not that close.  The Lobos are still getting inconsistent QB play, but sophomore Kole McKamey seems to just miss big play opportunities each week.  Most of the time the running game is good enough with standout RB Dontrell Moore and an outstanding offensive line.  Junior WR Hank Baskett has potential to be a good one if they can get him the ball.  Defensively, the Lobos can give a young QB fits and that is just what they will be facing this week.  The best thing Colorado State had going this year was junior QB Justin Holland but he went down two weeks ago vs SDSU and is out for the season.  CSU comes in on a two game win streak of their own but the win at SDSU two weeks ago was really a fluke.  The Rams not only scored on a 71 yard INT runback but also took possession in the final two minutes inside the Aztec 15 yard line after a phantom fumble call to convert the winning touchdown.  Last week they had +2 turnovers and were able to run the ball vs Wyoming.  This week Caleb Hanie (11-for-22, 1 int in first start) will be under a lot more pressure.  The running game will not be as successful and he will be facing one of the most complex blitzing defenses in the country.  The Lobos are 7-2 ATS in last 9 MWC road games.