College Basketball Analysis - Added Looks

12/01/04

Virginia (-5, play to -6.5) at Northwestern - Game #767-768 - 6:30pm Pacific

The Cavaliers have been ignited by the play of freshman point guard Sean Singletary. He is averaging 10.0ppg, 5.25apg, and 3.0spg and seemingly making everyone around him better. Virginia also has two solid sophomore guards to lend ball handling support in T.J. Bannister and J.R. Reynolds. Both got plenty of experience last year as freshman. In the frontcourt Virginia finally has a dedicated F/C Elton Brown who is looking better than ever and averaging 16.0ppg & 10.3rpg. They also finally have a fully healthy Devin Smith at forward. Smith is a versatile scorer and like Brown is in his senior year. F/C Jason Clark is another senior who provides quality size off the bench. Sohpomore reserve wing Gary Forbes is capable of instant offense. Virginia has more than enough talent. Northwestern comes in with a 1-3 record and losers of three straight. I watched their most recent game at Colorado and I do not recall seeing a major college team lacking intensity as much as Northwestern did. Their frontcourt is manned by two european players and neither seemed very interested in playing defense or rebounding. Last year, 6-2 guard Jitim Young, a 1st team all-Big 10 selection and heart and soul of this team, actually led them in rebounding. He has since graduated and Northwestern comes in to this game with a rebounding margin of -8.7 per game. The Wildcats have very little depth, size, or athleticism. While Northwestern always seems to start slow and get better as the season progresses, the Cavaliers have always been their best right out of the gate. Virginia has been outstanding thus far. They already own wins over Arizona by 18 and a decent Richmond team by 27 last time out. Expect them to continue their winning ways tonight, even on the road. Give the points.

Denver at LMU (-2.5, play to -4) - Game #777-778 - 7:05pm Pacific

The Lions lost a tough one on the road at UC Riverside last time out as the Highlanders suddenly got hot in the second half going 7-of-9 from behind the arc in final 20 minutes. Tonight they return home and I believe they will be tough to beat here all season long. I sung the praises of sophomore guard Brandon Worthy in previous write-up and he surpassed even my expectations with a career high 26 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds, 5 steals, and only one turnover in 29 minutes of action vs UC Riverside. He is an outstanding player and leader. Foul trouble limited both Worthy's and starting center Mathew Knight's (22 mins) playing time which hurt. Outside of Worthy, the team shot just 33.3% from the field and they were outrebounded by 17 but still were in the game until very late. I expect a much better effort in both shooting and rebounding tonight as they return to their home court. Denver returns a solid backcourt but last years entire starting frontline was lost to graduation and they are not a very good rebounding team themselves. I reviewed tape of Denver's game at Kansas State two games back and was not impressed by either team. It was an ugly played, low scoring game, and both teams lacked intensity. In last game, the Pioneers beat Eastern Washington convincingly but the result is a bit misleading as EWU played with a very shorthanded backcourt. Denver has a history of playing poorly on the road and the Lions won last years meeting in Denver even without Worthy in the lineup. LMU has a slight edge in overall talent, much better depth, and most importantly is playing at home. I look for them to bounce back with a solid effort here. Give the small number.

12/06/04

Iowa State (-1, play to -2) over Virginia - Game #517-518 - 4:30pm Pacific

This is a game Iowa State has had circled all season. It is one of just three nationally televised games on their schedule this year and it is by far their biggest non-conference game. Iowa State led by 7 at the 9:00 mark of the second half in last years meeting in Charlottesville. UVA went on a big late run to get a misleading 11 point win while handing ISU their first loss of the season. The Cyclones were simply amazing at home last year going 17-1 straight up and 12-3 ATS. They beat the likes of Iowa, Xavier, Missouri, Kansas, and Texas here last season. Three major components from that team return in do it all G/F Curtis Stinson (17.0ppg), guard Will Blalock (17.0ppg), and improving center Jared Homan (15.5ppg). The surrounding talent has potential but those three will keep them in almost any game on their own. This will be Virginia's second true road game of the season. I felt they played very poorly in first road test against a highly suspect Northwestern team. The Cavaliers showed a major lack of patience and no consistency on offense. Head coach Pete Gillen does not appear to have the full attention of his team. They were a bad bounce or two away from losing outright to Northwestern and followed that up with an unimpressive 2 point win over an undersized Auburn team as a double digit favorite. This will be their third game, in three different states, in a six day span. Iowa State is coming off a double digit loss at Northern Iowa which is why we are getting decent value here. It should be noted that Northern Iowa led at Cincinnati by double digits in second half before losing in double OT so it was not as bad of a loss as it appears, especially considering it was on the road. Expect the home team to come away with a win here.

Added Look: Iowa State -1 1/2 UNIT

12/11/04

Pepperdine (-1, play to -2) at UCLA - Game #759-760 - 3:00pm Pacific

The Waves continue to play well and have now won seven straight games. They are off to their best start in nearly 20 years. They beat UNLV quite handily on Wednesday despite starting forward Diawara (20 mins, 3 points) and starting center Pinegar (16 mins, 6 points) both being very limited due to foul trouble. Senior forward Glen McGowan continued his offensive surge with a game high 27 points and redshirt freshman reserve point guard Kingsley Costain ignited a huge first half fun with three consecutive 3-point shots made. Costain finished with 19 points and exhibited very strong ball handling skills. If he continues to play the way he did vs UNLV, Pepperdine is next to impossible to defend. Consistent point guard play is one area that has been a question mark this year. Pepperdine held UNLV to under 40% shooting for the game as they continue to play much improved defense from a year ago. UCLA was not a world beater to begin with but suffered a significant blow this week losing leasing scorer and rebounder, senior forward Dijon Thompson, indefinitely due to a hand injury. It is a difficult pill to swallow for the Bruins who already lost senior point guard Cedric Bozeman to a knee injury before the season started. Part time starting forward Matt McKinney is undergoing tests this week to attempt to determine why he is only able to play a few minutes at a time before becoming too winded. The Bruins will be relying heavily on three very good freshman but they have been inconsistent and depth is now a major concern. Pepperdine does not get many chances to play the Bruins, the last time was in 2001 when the Waves won here in Pauley by 8. Both players and fans will surely be up for this one.

Added Look: Pepperdine -1 1/2 UNIT

Pacific (+2.5, play to pick'em) at Nevada - Game #793-794 - 7:00pm Pacific

Pacific is as well coached and as solid a basketball team as there is. They have great offensive balance with threats to score inside and outside. They are solid defensively (opponents shooting .424), rarely giving up any easy baskets. They share the basketball, have great teamwork (60 of 101 field goals assisted this year), and more often than not take good (shooting .484 from the field) shots. They rebound well (+8.5 margin) and shoot free throws (.705) well. They won 25 games last year, survived the always competitive Big West tournament, and advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament before losing to Kansas. Four of their top five scorers are back from last year, 11 letter winners in all. They are 3-1 on the season with only loss coming at Kansas by 11 points. It was a close game throughout with Pacific owning two leads in the second half before falling to the powerful Jayhawks. Pacific has already won two other road games this year, both by double digits, and were 9-4 on the road last year. The Tigers have two excellent big men in junior Christian Maraker and senior Guillaume Yango. Maraker can go both inside and outside, while Yango is a very active inside player. The two compliment each other very well. Pacific is shooting .438 from behind the 3-point line with four players shooting 46% or better. Senior point guard David Doubley provides great leadership and decision making skills. Pacific is much further along as a team than Nevada currently is. The Wolfpack are still adjusting to new coach, new backcourt, and loss of rare NBA 1st round pick. Tigers have the size and depth to neutralize Wolfpack leading scorers forward Pinkney and center Fazekas. Pacific is 12-3 ATS in road games since the start of last season. I look for the Tigers to snap Nevada's home win streak tonight. Take the points.

Added Look: Pacific +2.5 1/2 UNIT

12/15/04

UTEP at New Mexico State (Over 136, play to 139) - Game #731-732 - 6:05pm Pacific

New Mexico State started the season in Alaska, where they played three of the lower scoring teams in the country in Western Michigan (128.8), Central Florida (125.5) and Northwestern (116.8) which really has brought down their game total scoring average. Since returning to the mainland, Aggie games are averaging a total of 155 points per game over a four game span. Today they are expected to regain the services of leading returning scorer G/F Duane John (13.1ppg last year) who has been ineligible up to this point. He is expected to come off the bench and should only help their scoring output. UTEP games averaged 145 points a year ago and although their scoring is down a bit so far this year, they still have no problem with an up tempo game. They welcome back a big part of their offense tonight as well in starting point guard Filiberto Rivera who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury. Rivera leads the team in assists and is third in scoring at 12.5ppg. The teams scoring and shooting percentages are significantly better with Rivera in the lineup. UTEP games have averaged 122.33 without him and 133.50 with him this season. Both of those numbers would be higher if not for some very inept opponents. Miners are averaging 73.5ppg with Rivera in the lineup. These two teams met twice last year ending with point totals of 157 and 145 for an average of 152. This is a big rivalry and should be a competitive game with some extra free throws at the end for insurance. Play the over.

Added Look: Over 136 1/2 UNIT

12/18/04

Oregon State (+2.5, play to pick'em) at Boise State - Game #579-580 - 6:30pm Pacific

I am willing to take another chance on the Beavers despite blowing double digit lead and losing in overtime against a suspect Georgia team in Atlanta. Oregon State has now had two games with Iowa transfer Nick DeWitz in the lineup. He has scored 20 points in just 29 combined minutes of action in two games. The Beavers will finally welcome back starting point guard Lamar Hurd to the lineup after missing the last three games with back spasms. He is officially listed as questionable but reports indicate he will play. Hurd is not a big time scorer but brings a lot to the table (rebounding, defense, assists, ball handling, athleticism) to help this team. Boise State is transitioning with 7 newcomers and various injury issues. They have gone through a lot of different lineups early in the season. Starting PG Lane missed significant time due to a stabbing. Most recently they lost 5th year senior Kenny Gainous for the season to injury. The Broncos have been very inconsistent at best offensively. They have beaten a bad Idaho team twice and Portland State once but have not done much else. They are coming off a seemingly nice win over Eastern Washington but EWU (2-6) has been losing badly to just about everyone in the west this year. BSU attendance is at a four year low and I just do not think they are capable of beating a quality Pac-10 team.

Added Look: Oregon State +2.5 1/2 UNIT

12/22/04

Creighton at Evansville (+1.5, play to -1) - 5:05pm Pacific - Game #547-548

After leading Hampton to one of the biggest upsets in NCAA tournament history over #2 seed Iowa State, head coach Steve Merfeld began rebuilding the Evansville program. He is now in his third year here and has the team off to a promising 6-2 start. They fell just a point shy of upsetting Purdue last time out at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Boilermakers won on a late tip-in. The Purple Aces are a perfect 5-0 at home and have beaten some decent teams along the way. Evansville returns 4 starters from a year ago and are led by two senior guards, Burton & Wagner, but also have a blossoming sophomore guard in Kyle Aslinger. All three are 6-4 or taller so they are able to play a three guard lineup without giving up a lot of size. Five players are averaging double figures and it is not a very high scoring team so the scoring is very balanced. 6-10 center Bradley Strickland led the MVC in blocked shots as a freshman last year and has improved offensively this year. 66% of field goals have been assisted thus far for Evansville. I was not too impressed watching Creighton play earlier in the season and more recently they have uncharacteristically lost two straight home games vs Kent State and Wyoming (Cowboys were without leading scorer Leven), neither are exactly world beaters. The Blue Jays have always been a great rebounding and a high percentage shooting team but have had to replace their entire frontline from a year ago. They enter this game with a -1.6 rebounding margin average and are just shooting .434 from the field. Creighton was 4-5 on the road in MWC play last year, losing three straight to end the year. Creighton escaped with a 74-70 win here last year but with Evansville's marked improvement I believe the tables will be turned tonight.

Added Look: Evansville +1.5 1/2 UNIT

Wake Forest (-3, play to -4) at New Mexico - 6:05pm Pacific - Game #549-550

I realize that New Mexico is playing well and that The Pit can be a very difficult place to win but Wake Forest is by far the superior team in this matchup. The Deacons only loss all season was a true road game at #1 Illinois. They own neutral court wins over Providence and Arizona, and also won on the road at Temple. They remain a legitimate national title contender and I do not believe they have played their best basketball yet. They have had to deal with nagging injuries and final exams in recent weeks but should be set to go here in their final real test before ACC play begins. Looking at New Mexico's schedule you will be hard pressed to find many quality teams. They most recently blew out Tennessee which is probably their best win of the season, but the Vols have not been playing well at all the past few weeks despite having talent. Prior to that the Lobos lost at Oregon and beat a very bad New Mexico State team not once, but twice. I watched NMSU in person at UC Irvine Tuesday night and they are very bad right now. Wake has one of the better point guards in the country which is always a big plus in a tough road environment. They have played some tight games already and also have the experience of playing at Temple and at Illinois. Under Ritchie McKay New Mexico is prone to taking bad shots and they do not mind playing uptempo which is a pace Wake prefers. In their two games vs the best opponents they have seen thus far Oregon (loss) and Tennessee (win) New Mexico shot a combined 15-for-55 (.272) from 3-point range. NC State (ACC) handled their business on the road over BYU (MWC) Tuesday night, expect the same from Wake tonight.

Added Look: Wake Forest -3 1/2 UNIT

12/23/04

Providence at Memphis (-2, play to -3) - 6:00pm Pacific - Game # 721-722

I am a believer in Memphis head coach John Calapari. Despite some recent embarrassing losses I believe Memphis will be primed for a strong effort tonight in front of NBA scouts and an ESPN2 audience. The Tigers actually played a strong first half last game but sleepwalked at the start of the second half and gave up a 17-0 run on their way to losing to Louisiana Tech. It was leading scorer Sean Banks' first game back after serving a 3-day, 1-game suspension. He came off the bench and played 30 minutes, scoring 15 points. Banks along with Rodney Carney, Anthony Rice, Joey Dorsey, and Darius Washington give Memphis too much talent and quickness for Providence to match up with, especially in a tough road environment. There was something not quite right with the Friars when they lost three of four games before finals week, including home losses to Winthrop and Wichita State. They returned from a 10 day layoff to spank Maine on Tuesday but obviously the level of competition will be much higher tonight. This will be the first true road game Providence has played this season. They lost by double digits to Florida in an off-campus game in Miami. Look for the Tigers to rebound with a solid win tonight.

Added Look: Memphis -2 1/2 UNIT

12/31/04

Rutgers at Air Force (-5.5, play to -6) - 3:05pm Pacific - Game #726-727

This will be just the fourth home game of the year for the Falcons. They are 3-0 here this year and currently have a 17 game home win streak. Sophomore guard Dan Nwaelele just returned to action three games ago and made his first start in last game vs Iowa playing 29 minutes and scoring 11 points with 4 assists. The Falcons now have their full projected starting lineup in tact. Air Force has lost at Marquette, at Georgia Tech, and at Iowa, but they have played pretty well for the most part. This looks to be an ideal spot to play against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a road upset win at Kansas State two nights ago and now must travel to Colorado Springs where the altitude and Air Force's deliberate style of play will give them trouble. Rutgers can really look bad if they are not hitting their outside shots and that is a good possibility today vs a stingy Air Force defense. This will be by far Air Force's biggest home game thus far and I expect a good showing from them. Give the points.

Added Look: Air Force -5.5 1/2 UNIT