Denver at Colorado State (-8, play to -9) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #537-538

The Rams were not very pleased to be picked near the bottom of the MWC preseason polls.  This is a talented, deep team who could end up contending for a conference title.  7-1 center Matt Nelson is back for his senior year.  He is one of the better offensive big men in the country and will almost surely be playing professionally next year.  He can be scary when focused.  After some off the court issues, Nelson rejoined the starting lineup three games back and has put up very good numbers.  Senior forward Matt Williams (14.1ppg, 5.1rpg) is another experienced player that can hurt teams in many ways.  7-0 true freshman center Jason Smith has tremendous upside.  I do not recall seeing a big man handle the ball and run the floor as well as he does.  He is averaging 10.1ppg in less than 20 minutes of action.  Nelson, Williams, and Smith all rank top 5 in the MWC in field goal percentage.  Redshirt freshman Stuart Creason, another 7 footer, 6-10 sophomore Stephen Verwers, and 6-7 sophomore Phillip Thomasson make up a big and deep frontline.  The Rams are averaging 6.18 blocks per game, more than twice that of their opponents.  They also have a +5.9 rebounding margin.  Sophomore Dwight Boatner is a steady point guard.  Junior Michael Morris is very athletic and can play the 1, 2, or 3.  Senior guard Jon Rakiecki is the designated 3-point specialist.  The Rams easily go 10 deep.

 

Denver has not done much to impress me this year.  I have seen them play twice in person, both losses at LMU and at Fullerton.  They rely heavily on center Yemi Nicholson who usually has a big size advantage on opponents but that will certainly not be the case today against one of the tallest teams in the country in CSU.  The only other big lineup Denver faced this year was vs Stanford in which they only managed 52 points.  I expect them to again struggle offensively tonight.  Nicholson is also prone to foul trouble and will have his hands full inside with Nelson and company.  Denver is coming off a 10 point loss at Fullerton and will be playing its third consecutive road game.

 

All four of CSU's losses this year have been on the road but they have been competitive against some good teams.  They lost in OT at Auburn, lost by 1 at Purdue, and lost a close game at Colorado by 6.  They did not look bad vs Purdue or Colorado on tape but the Rams have always been a significantly better team at home than on the road so I imagine their level of play will be improved here.  Colorado State is coming off back to back impressive wins over Texas State by 18 and Stetson by 36.  They are 7-0 at home this year and 22-1 at home vs non-conference opponents the past three years.  CSU will be looking to avenge a 17 point loss at Denver last year in a game that they led by 9 at half-time.  Eight points is not enough to separate these teams.  Give the points.

 

Official Play: Colorado State -8  1 UNIT  

 

 

Florida State vs LSU (-2, play to -3) - 6:45pm Pacific - Game #543-544

The Tigers were caught a bit off guard by a very good, undefeated, and soon to be ranked West Virginia team at home a few weeks back.  They also lost their last two games vs Southern Miss (in OT) and Houston but both were away from home and by narrow margins.  This is still a solid, well coached basketball team.  All five starters are averaging in double figures led by super sophomore power forward Brandon Bass (19.0ppg, 9.4rpg).  Fellow sophomore Tack Minor (11.8ppg, 5.5apg) has picked up where he left off last year beating out senior Xavier Whipple for the starting point guard position.  True freshman forward Glen Davis (12.9ppg, 7.8rpg) was a high school all-American and has produced well so far.  He has enormous potential.  Senior wing Antonio Davis and shooting guard Darrel Mitchell are experienced, reliable scorers.  Sophomore forward Koundjia, Lazare, and Nelter all saw playing time as freshman and along with senior Whipple provide a solid bench.

 

Florida State has been very inconsistent this year and it will be a while before they finally establish roles for everyone on the team, nonetheless a concrete starting lineup.  Eight different players have started this year and no one player is averaging more than 25 minutes a game.  The Seminoles do have talent but are lacking leadership and a go to player has yet to step up.  They have lost to some suspect teams (Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Florida International, Kent State, and TCU).  The Noles have looked better in last four games including a big outing at Maryland where they forced overtime, but that game followed finals week and they will have to show more consistency before I fear going against them.

 

LSU has typically always been a very good defensive team under head coach John Brady.  They have chosen to play a bit more up tempo this year and it has been costly in their defensive statistics thus far as they have uncharacteristically given up 81.2ppg in their last five outings.  However, they have had 9 days in between games and held two a day practices twice following Christmas preparing for this game.  The emphasis of course being defense.  I'm expecting the Tigers to come out fighting as they look to bounce back from two straight losses.  LSU is 25-5 in their last 30 games played in New Orleans and are 39-8 in December under Brady.  Give the small number.

 

Official Play: LSU -2  1 UNIT