College Basketball Picks

*Two plays Tuesday:

Texas Tech vs Iowa (-2.5, play to -3.5) - 4:05pm Pacific - Game #715-716

The Hawkeyes simply are not getting enough respect in this spot. They are off to a great 9-1 start and already own neutral court wins over two excellent teams in Louisville and Texas. Their lone loss came in the championship game of the Maui Invitational vs North Carolina but

starting guard Pierre Pierce (16.4ppg, 4.2apg, 2.8spg, 5.6rpg) was limited by an injury suffered the night before. Pierce and fellow returnees junior guard Jeff Horner (16.5ppg, 6.7apg, 5.4rpg), junior forward Greg Brunner (13.1ppg, 7.1rpg), and junior center Erek Hansen (9.3ppg, 3.7 blocks per game) have really come to play this year. Each has improved their numbers significantly over last year and are performing at a much higher level. Four newcomers, led by Iowa State transfer Adam Haluska (13.0ppg), are making solid contributions as well. Team can easily go 9 deep. Teamwork and chemistry is also improved and everything is reflected in their hot start.

I have not been very impressed with Texas Tech thus far. They have performed poorly on the road in recent years and are 1-1 on the road this year losing badly at TCU and winning at UTEP. The UTEP win looks good on paper, but the Miners played without starting point guard Rivera (ankle) and looked horrible committing 27 turnovers, one of the sloppiest performances I have seen all year. The Red Raiders have been relying heavily on true freshman Martin Zeno who made critical mistakes on the final two meaningful possessions in loss to Ohio State last week. Zeno is a good looking player but did not even start the first four games and is probably not yet ready to be a team leader. Texas Tech lacks a true center and could have trouble with a physical team like Iowa. They are also not getting very much production from their bench. Any foul trouble to a key player would hurt.

Iowa lost by just 6 in Dallas in last years meeting, missing 13 free throws in the process. Iowa head coach Steve Alford is now 0-3 lifetime vs his former coach Knight. He badly would like to end that streak and for the first time he has a better team and will be favored to do so. The game is being played in Chicago (about a 3+ hour drive from Iowa campus) and it should be mostly a Hawkeye partisan crowd. Give the small number.

Official Play: Iowa -2.5 1 UNIT

UCLA at Michigan State (OVER 147.5, play to 150) - 6:05pm Pacific - Game #729-730

When UCLA played Pepperdine without Dijon Thompson they started all three of their excellent freshman guards. Point guard Jordan Farmar and off guard Arron Afflalo were joined by wing Josh Shipp who had previously come off the bench. Thompson, the teams leading scorer and rebounder, returned from his hand injury but came off the bench in last game vs Michigan. The freshman have played so well together, that Howland announced after last game that Thompson will replace power forward Ryan Hollins in the starting lineup, not freshman Shipp. This means the Bruins will have a much quicker, much more offensive minded lineup. Howland indicated he expects the lineup will see at least 20 minutes of court time together vs Michigan State. The lineup can cause a lot of matchup problems and they have plays that can only be run with Thompson at the 4 spot. One of which led to the game winning basket vs Michigan. They used some full court pressure with a similar lineup against Pepperdine and that will most likely be seen at some point tonight, especially if they fall behind by a large margin. Howland also added that they are not yet a very good defensive team with this lineup (Hollins is their best shotblocker and will now come off the bench) and that is something they will have to work on. In summary, the lineup change translates into a higher scoring game. The Bruins have already totaled 168 vs Pepperdine and 160 vs Michigan in last two games.

Michigan State scored over 100 points in each of their first three games this year setting a tone for the season. They have had some really low scoring games vs George Mason a few weeks ago and Delaware State last time out but I believe they are still interested in pushing the ball up the court and attacking on offense as much as possible. Overall their games are averaging 147.3ppg this year and I believe UCLA can only bring that average up. Expect this to be in the 150's or higher. Play the over.

Official Play: Over 147.5 1 UNIT