College Basketball Predictions

*Three plays Saturday:

Kentucky at Louisville (-4) - Game #519-520 - 9:00am Pacific

I was very high on the Cardinals last season and obviously am very high on them again this year. Junior backcourt tandem of do it all scorer Francisco Garcia and gutsy point guard Taquan Dean returns in tact. It would be difficult to call another backcourt better. Senior big man Ellis Myles is not only back but back with vengeance after a redshirt season a year ago. He is averaging 11.4ppg and 9.6rpg thus far and Pitino says he is still not 100% with his conditioning and timing but did practice very well this week. Myles is a big difference maker. Freshman Juan Diego Palacios (8.0ppg, 5.4rpg) adds some much needed depth down low. Senior wing Larry O'Bannon (14.9ppg) provides another experienced scoring option. Senior forward Otis George (8.0ppg, 6.5rpg) was playing very well until a foot injury sidelined him for the last four games. He is officially listed as questionable for this game but Pitino says his foot is fine and he will play some today. Louisville has already played quality teams away from home. They faced Iowa and Stanford in Maui and came away with an impressive road win at Florida two games ago. That was more impressive considering they did it without George as they were plagued by foul trouble throughout the game. This will be their first home game against a big name opponent and they should be more than ready.

This is easily one of the most inexperienced teams Tubby Smith has put on the floor at Kentucky. The Wildcats only return two players who averaged double digits in minutes played last year. Two freshman and Western Kentucky transfer Patrick Sparks fill out the starting lineup. Kentucky is only averaging 77.3ppg, shooting .448 from the field, and only has one regular shooting over 50%. This is despite playing a schedule that has consisted of five cupcakes in seven games. Leading scorers Kelenna Azubike and Patrick Sparks are not going to wow anyone and neither has ever faced the type of pressure they will see vs Louisville. The Cardinals were among the best in the nation in field goal percentage defense last year and so far this year are allowing just .380. Kentucky is going to struggle to score points.

Since losing to Iowa in Maui, Louisville has won 4 straight games very impressively, including to huge blowouts at home and a road win against a very good Florida team. Louisville won last years meeting at Rupp Arena by 9. At least at this stage of the season Louisville has improved more than UK has since that meeting and this time will be the home team. Kentucky has three first year starters and a bench that up to this point is undeveloped and undefined. Cardinals are 31-4 here at Freedom Hall since the start of 2002-03 season and should improve on that impressive mark today. Give the points.

Official Play: Louisville -4 1 UNIT

Oregon (+1.5) at Fresno State - Game #583-584 - 7:00pm Pacific

Head coach Ernie Kent's system is working at Oregon. Despite losing three very good players, including an NBA first round pick, the Ducks have again reloaded and will be in contention for a postseason bid. Freshman Malik Hairston is considered by some to be the top freshman player in the country. He has a solid inside/outside game but I have really been impressed with his passing. His 23 assists is second best on the team and 2.6 to 1 turnover to assist ratio is excellent for a young player. Fellow freshman wing Bryce Taylor is no slouch and actually leads the team in scoring. He is more of a pure scorer. He is shooting 50% from behind the arc. It would be hard to find a better pair of freshman wings in the country. Top returning players are point guard Aaron Brooks (13.3ppg, 5.6apg) and power forward Ian Crosswhite (12.5ppg, 7.0rpg). F/C Mitch Platt is improved and guard Brandon Lincoln has starting experience from last year giving them a reliable perimeter threat off the bench. Nine players are averaging double figures in minutes and they can easily go 11 deep. There are some good looking players on this team that will surprise people.

Fresno State comes in undefeated but have really played no one. Their lone notable win came on the road vs a USC team in turmoil. It was a poorly played game (teams combined for 37 turnovers) that neither team wanted to win, but Fresno came away with a 3 point victory. Their other wins have come over Maryland Eastern Shore, East Tennessee State, Grand Canyon, Mississippi Valley State, and Sacramento State. In last game they actually trailed by 7 at halftime vs a Sacramento State team that has not been competitive with anyone. The Bulldogs are in a major transition period with just two returning players seeing action so far this season. A third, forward Dreike Bouldin is questionable to become eligible in time for this game but he is not going to be a major impact even if he does play, especially in first action of the season. Fresno is averaging 17.1 turnovers per game despite playing highly suspect opponents.

Oregon would have been an NCAA tournament team last year if not for mid season injury to point guard Brooks. They still made it to the NIT semifinals and if nothing else benefited from extra games and practice time. Ernie Kent has a system that players love. They play up tempo with freedom but still are unselfish and have solid teamwork. Defense (opponents shooting .422) appears to be improved this year and rebounding stats are solid. The Ducks already have wins over New Mexico and Vanderbilt and won by 20 on the road at Marshall. Their only loss thus far came in Chicago vs #1 Illinois which is nothing to be ashamed of. They definitely are more skilled than Fresno and should take care of business tonight.

Official Play: Oregon +1.5 1 UNIT

San Diego State at LMU (-4.5) - Game #587-588 - 7:00pm Pacific

I have now been to four LMU games this season and I believe I have a very good feel for them. The bottom line with this team is that they thrive on ball pressure and forcing turnovers. They are averaging over 10 steals per game and forcing 19.7 total turnovers per game, thus giving them an impressive turnover margin of +7.6 through seven games. Naturally, they are going to have success against teams who can not handle pressure well. This was the case in recent wins over Long Beach State and South Alabama who both average close to 19 turnovers a game. LMU covered the spread in both contests. They also covered in last game vs Washington but were beaten soundly by a Huskies team who can handle pressure well and has an abundance of scorers.

San Diego State can neither score or handle pressure well. The Aztecs lost starting all-conference point guard Wesley Stokes to academics and are also currently without senior starting forward Chris Walton for at least two more games due to injury. They are struggling handling the ball with 17.5 turnovers per game vs Division 1-A opposition and 20 turnovers per game in their only two games away from home. The Aztecs are coming off back to back home losses to Cal and St Mary's. SDSU has two solid scoring threats in sophomores forward Marcus Slaughter and guard Brandon Heath. However, no one else on the team has stepped up and performed consistently. At this level you usually need at least three scoring threats. Junior guard John Sharper is filling in at point guard but is averaging just 1.4 assists per game thus far. No guard on the team has more assists than turnovers. The Aztecs have not had much time to improve as they have not had more than 3 days between any of their last 5 games and just completed finals week. SDSU was 4-10 away from home last year and it will be difficult for them to improve on that record without solid point guard play.

LMU forward Adoya Evans-Miller (back) and guard Wes Wardrop (ankle) sat out last game with injuries and are listed as questionable today. In my opinion they are two of the weaker players in the regular rotation and their absence may even be a plus as it allows for a tighter rotation. LMU's bench still badly outscored Washington 35-7 and they are plenty deep. Sophomore center Matthew Knight and junior forward Dustin Brown have really played well in recent games. Both rank among the top in improved scoring averages in the WCC. Brown had a career high 18 vs Washington. Backcourt combo of Brandon Worthy and Charles Brown has been solid throughout the year. Look for SDSU turnovers to play a big role in LMU continuing their strong start to the season tonight. Lions win and cover.

Official Play: LMU -4.5 1 UNIT