College Basketball Picks

Long Beach State (+9, play to +6) at LMU - Game #619-620 - 7:05pm Pacific

Still excellent value to be had with this 49er team. In last game at UCLA, Long Beach was outscored 25-to-13 at the free throw line, had to sit almost their entire starting five for the final 8 minutes of the first half due to foul trouble (leading scorer Anthony Coleman ended up playing just 21 minutes), and shot a miserable 1-for-17 from behind the arc. Given all of that, Long Beach still saw themselves leading at Pauley Pavilion by 2 with 12 minutes to play and tied with 8 minutes to play before allowing UCLA to go on a decisive run that was aided by favorable officiating. If UCLA freshman guard Afflalo did not unexpectedly go 7-for-7 from the field, and 3-for-3 from behind the arc (he came in to the game shooting 36.6% & 28.5% respectively), Long Beach may have been able to steal an outright win.

The 6-11 Coleman is still averaging 16.0ppg for the season and should have a big game against an undersized and soft LMU frontline. Good looking JC transfer forward Shawn Hawkins is averaging 13.3ppg but is clearly capable of being a go to player for this team. He scored 13 of his 15 in the second half vs UCLA and was also instrumental in second half run vs Pepperdine two games back. Junior G/F Louis Darby (12.3ppg) and senior forward Cody Pearson (9.5ppg) continue to progress, each providing scoring, rebounding, and solid defense. Starting guards Kevin Houston and Jibril Hodges have underperformed a bit this year but will finally get to play against a smaller backcourt and should do well at both ends. JC transfer 6-10 reserve forward Sam Byrd hit some big shots in UCLA game, his best performance of the season.

I watched LMU in person for the second time this season vs Denver in last game and was very disappointed. After losing outright on the road to a very suspect UC Riverside team, they really struggled at home to beat a suspect Denver team. The Lions trailed by 4 at half-time and by as much as 7 in the second half before going on a seemingly unlikely very late run that was aided by Denver turnovers. The Pioneers led most of the game despite their standout center Yemi Nicholson (leading scorer and rebounder) only playing 20 minutes due to foul trouble. He finished with just 12 points and 4 rebounds, far below his season averages coming in. Denver also saw usually dependable guard Rodney Billups (brother of Chauncey) commit 8 costly turnovers. LMU's half-court offense is inconsistent, interior defense/rebounding is a weakness, and the quality of their depth is not as good as I originally thought. Head coach Aggers is seemingly still working on finding the right player rotations. It appeared to me that he kept some less talented players in far too long. LMU top player Worthy had 6 of the teams 21 turnovers vs Denver as he single handedly almost cost them the pointspread cover in the final minute by turning the ball over and missing two free throws.

Long Beach actually beat LMU last year 71-68, one of only six wins all season. That win should provide a confidence boost tonight and it is obvious to me that Long Beach is much improved from a year ago. The 49ers have played a much more difficult schedule so far this year facing the likes of Charlotte, Pepperdine, and UCLA, while LMU has faced Monmouth, Northern Colorado, UC Riverside, and Denver. I have seen both of these teams play in person more than once this year and I really like the way Long Beach matches up here. LMU is undersized at almost every position, and Long Beach players are bigger, more athletic, and tougher. Coleman, Hawkins, and the Long Beach guards will finally all have size advantages in the same game. Long Beach outrebounded UCLA by a +6 margin and should be able to control the boards in this game as well. The 49ers are even shooting 79% from the foul line as a team. If Long Beach limits turnovers and gets a few calls, they will win this game outright. Take the points and consider a small money line play.

Long Beach State +9 2 UNITS

Portland at Portland State (+1, play to -2) - Game #653-654 - 7:00pm Pacific

Portland State is a commuter school and it is not too often they can get excited about a home game, but when crosstown rival Portland pays a visit it is easily one of if not the biggest game of the season for them. The matchup is nicknamed the "River City Rivalry." The two teams played twice last season. Portland won the first meeting at home by 7, but Portland State got revenge in a big way winning by 19 on their home court in second meeting. They led by as many as 25 and dominated in every faucet of the game. This will be the only meeting between the two teams this year so bragging rights will be on the line. PSU enters this game on a three game win streak, their longest in three years. They have only really had one bad outing this year, a 12 point loss at Boise State in which they came out ice cold in the first half. In season opener they were tied with Gonzaga at half-time but starting point guard Will Fund was unfairly given his second technical of the game right before half and therefore was ejected which killed any chance of an upset. In last two outings PSU beat Howard and Jackson State who are not good teams but the fact that they did it on the road is a very good sign and gives them confidence heading into this game. PSU has four returning starters including good looking senior forward Seamus Boxley (first team Big Sky last year) who will easily be the best frontcourt player on the court tonight. They have also added JC transfer Jake Schroeder (10.8ppg) who pleasantly surprised to emerge as the teams starting shooting guard. 6-11 freshman Scott Morrison has started four games at center and has done a decent job. Small forward Blake Walker (15.0ppg), point guard Will Fund (7.8ppg, 4.8apg), and sixth man Antione Jarrell (9.6ppg) are all athletic, solid players. Boxley, Walker, Fund, and Jarrell are seniors. This will be one of the top teams in the Big Sky this year.

Portland struggled down the stretch last year losing 16 of their final 22 games. They finished last season with a -7.5 rebounding margin and lost their top two inside players to graduation. In late October, senior forward Patrick Galos, who was expected to compete for a starting position this year, left the team to focus on getting his degree. An already thin frontline is now relying heavily on a sophomore and two freshman. They will primarily go with a three guard lineup. The Pilots are coming off a narrow 3 point loss at Oregon State which at first glance looks like a quality loss, but a closer look shows they were down 19 at the 13:00 minute mark, and down 9 at the 1:30 mark. The game was not nearly as close as final score indicates.

This is the best team Portland State has had in years. They blew out Portland at this venue last year and are an even better team this year with four starters back and two impact newcomers. Portland meanwhile only has two returning starters and does not look much improved if at all from a year ago. I give Portland State the talent edge and this senior dominated team will definitely be fired up for this home game.

Portland State +1 1 UNIT