College Basketball Picks - Added Looks

Towson State/Ohio State (OVER 137.5, play to 140.5) - 4:45pm Pacific

Ohio State games averaged 133.5 points per game last season and new head coach Thad Matta has promised a more uptempo style this year. Defensively, the Buckeys were dismal last year, allowing opponents to shoot over 45% from the field. Leading shotblocker Radinovic has departed and OSU does not have many quality inside options beyond junior Terrance Dials. His playing time is often limited due to foul trouble and lack of conditioning. It is hard to see Ohio State's defense improving much out of the box. JC all-American transfer Je'Kel Foster has received nice reviews in the preseason and adds some firepower on the wing. Towson brings in head coach Pat Kennedy formerly of Florida State, Depaul, and most recently Montana. When asked what type of system he wants to run at Towson, Kennedy replied, "We want our team to be aggressive. We want to run and press and cut down on our mistakes as we mature." His top recruit is speedy 5'8 point guard Cantrell Fletcher who will start right away. He averaged 9.2apg last year for the highest scoring JC team (104.9ppg) in the nation.

Sam Houston/Houston (Over 136, play to 139) - 3:30pm Pacific

First year Cougar head coach Tom Penders is well known for a running and pressing style of play. All the talk from Cougar insiders is how deep their team is. Word is they can go 10-12 deep and have competition at every starting position. In one publication, Penders called this team the most talented from top to bottom that he has ever coached. My interpretation is that says more about their perceived depth than individual talent. Houston does return leading scorer Andre Owens (16.0ppg last year) and welcomes 5 well regarded newcomers, all of which appear to fit an uptempo system well. Penders definitely has what he needs in terms of many athletic bodies to implement his style. Sam Houston scored 103 in their only exhibition game and last season their games averaged 151.2ppg. They return 88.3% of their scoring from last year and certainly will not mind an up and down game.

11/18/04

Arizona -22.5 (Play to -24) over Wright State - 6:00pm Pacific

After Tuesday's uninspiring 11 point win over an underrated San Diego team, Arizona head coach Lute Olson said, "We need to have that killer instinct, that when you have a team down by 20, you go for 30." His team will get a great chance to exhibit that philosophy tonight vs a young, undersized Wright State team who lacks depth and is playing its second road game in three nights. The Raiders won in OT at Tulsa on Tuesday. All 5 starters played between 39-to-44 minutes. They received almost zero production off the bench with three reserves combining for 12 minutes and 4 points. Wright State's tallest regular is just 6'7. The Raiders have 6 freshman, 4 sophomores, 1 junior, and 1 senior. Both upperclassmen are in their first season with the program so the team does not have a lot of playing experience together. The 3-point shot can be an equalizer in college hoops, but the Raiders are a rare team who does not make or attempt many 3-pointers. Including their exhibition game they are just 4-of-13 from behind the arc through two games. In the win at Tulsa they had 11 assists and 17 turnovers. They may have been able to get away with all of this vs a struggling Tulsa club, but it will be an entirely different story vs the likes of Arizona tonight. Wildcat stars Adams, Frye, Stoudamire, and Shakur are known commodities, but 6-10 sophomore forward Ivan Radenovic (17 points, 10 rebounds in opener) looks to have emerged as an additional all around impact player. Junior widebody big man Isaiah Fox will be available tonight after serving a one game suspension giving Arizona seven top notch experienced players plus two developing well regarded freshman. Adams and Frye, the teams top two scorers last season, each only had 6 in opener but both are much too good to have two off games in a row. Wright State does not have the depth, experience, size, or talent to keep up here and once they fall behind there will be no answers. Wildcats roll.

11/22/04

USC (-13, play to -14.5) over UC-Irvine - #525-526 - 7:35pm Pacific

Whether USC covers tonight or not, they are definitely a team to keep a close eye on this year. I was able to attend their final exhibition game and came away very impressed. They return four starters, and have six senior regulars on the roster. They have much talent and depth at every position. A source close to the team has indicated to me that head coach Bibby feels this is the best team he has had at Southern Cal. The three incoming freshman looked excellent, particularly forward Emanuel Willis and wing Nick Young. Both will make an immediate impact and have very bright futures. The team is leaps and bounds ahead of where they were at this point last season. There is better chemistry and more balanced scoring with the graduation of Desmon Farmer and recent transfer of Rodrick Stewart. It is a good thing Rodrick did transfer or their would be too many talented players fighting for time. USC will be able to apply as much defensive pressure as Bibby sees fit. UC Irvine is coming off a disappointing season. The dismissal of top player Mike Efveberha (petty theft, sitting out this year at CSUN) makes the rebuilding job more difficult. To attempt a quick fix, well regarded head coach Pat Douglass has gone the JC route and brought in some athletic players. He admits the team might be good by the second half of league play but for now they are a work in progress. The Anteaters are very undersized in the front court and Douglass says they will look to fast break more this year. Any kind of uptempo game would play right into the hands of USC. I expect the Trojans to take care of business and win impressively.

11/24/04

Portland State (+8, play to +7) at Boise State - #559-#560 - 6:30pm Pacific

The Vikings play in the Big Sky conference and are expected to compete with Eastern Washington for the league title this year. Eastern Washington is the team who covered 15 of their final 18 games ATS last season. Portland State returns 4 starters and have improved their depth from a year ago for third year head coach Heath Schroyer. They have a solid backcourt and a conference player of the year candidate in forward Seamus Boxley. In last years meeting, the Vikings led by as many as 12 in the second half until a late Boise rally forced overtime and the Broncos ended up winning by 1 point on a late free throw. Portland State will be looking to get over the hump and pull off the upset this year. The Vikings opened the season on the road at #25 Gonzaga and competed well shooting 61.2% from the field and went into half-time tied. A much less experienced group started last season 4-1 ATS which included covers at Washington & Oregon. Boise was flat out embarrassing in the exhibition season and was not impressive in three game tournament they hosted last weekend. They did beat Idaho in the first game by 10 but had a ridiculous 27 more free throw attempts. The Vandals did not flatter them losing their next two games to SE Louisiana and Fort Lewis. Boise did not do much in next two games themselves beating an outmatched Henderson State in second round before losing to SE Louisiana by 8 in final and averaging a dismal 55 points in the two outings. The Broncos are breaking in 8 newcomers and clearly are still a work in progress. Take the points.

11/27/04

Pepperdine (+5, play to +4) over Wisconsin - Game #767-768 - 7:00pm Pacific

This is a much more preferred role for Pepperdine, playing at home and in an underdog role both for the first time this season. This is a highly anticipated home opener for the Waves. No one questions their offensive ability and I have to think their defensive intensity will be at a fever pitch tonight playing at home vs a nationally ranked opponent. Pepperdine's goal is clearly to make the NCAA tournament this year and a win here will go a long way towards that. The Waves should be able to exploit Wisconsin in several areas with their superior quickness. Wisconsin lost three starters already from last year, and a fourth, guard Boo Wade, is currently not with the team due to personal reasons. That leaves the Badgers with a lot of inexperience and unproven players on the floor. Wisconsin is a bit out of their element tonight playing on the West Coast against a tough mid-major non-conference opponent early in the season. They were not impressive beating an undermanned UCSB team at home in last game and could be ripe for the picking tonight. Pepperdine can be ultra tough at Firestone Fieldhouse. Take the points.

11/29/04

Kansas (-20, play to -21.5) over Nevada - Game #715-716 - 6:00pm Pacific

The Jayhawks played at Nevada last year on a Sunday night a few days before Christmas. It was a complete setup for the Wolfpack who had their crowd in a frenzy and led by 20 at the half on their way to a 14 point win. It was a pitiful performance by Kansas, who at the time only went about 7 or 8 deep. Nevada had superstar forward Kirk Snyder who led them with 29 points in 9 rebounds and senior guard Todd Okeson who ended with a second best 12 points. Senior guard Garry Hill-Thomas (27 mins) and senior center Sean Paul (29 mins) were also major contributors that night. They have all departed as has head coach Trent Johnson to take the Stanford job. Kansas meanwhile returns 4 excellent starters and have greatly improved their depth. The Jayhawks are coming off a 40 point romp of St. Joseph's in which their starters only scored 44 points and did not play most of the second half. In head coach Bill Self's own words, KU "owes" one to Nevada. I was able to watch Nevada's last game on tape against a very bad Georgia team and I was not very impressed. They start a true freshman, Ramon Sessions, at PG and he is a good player but not yet ready for this type of competition. The Wolfpack only scored 43 points through the first 35 minutes of the game finishing with only 58 points against a badly undersized and inexperienced Bulldog team. They were a dismal 0-for-10 from behind the arc. It is highly unlikely they will be any more effective on offense tonight against a Kansas defense that is holding opponents to .319 shooting through first two games. This is also the Wolfpack's second straight road game of a long trip. Jayhawks roll at home in revenge mode.