Sac State at Long Beach State (-3.5, play to -5) - Game #797-798 - 1:00pm Pacific

I am convinced that the 49ers are a legitimate team this year.  I foresee them doubling last years overall and conference win totals of 6 and 4 respectively.  This team does not look like much on paper with only 1 returning starter,  just 6 wins a year ago, and currently 0-2, but they are vastly improved and there is good value to be had with them right now.  I was able to attend last Tuesday's loss to Pepperdine and I felt they really grew up as a team in the second half.  In the first half, the Waves could not have played any better as they shot 9 of 11 from behind the arc and 68.1% overall but still only led by 8 at the break.  Long Beach had a few sloppy plays to begin the second half and trailed by 15 points with about 17:30 to go.  They turned up the intensity on defense and things started to click with Long Beach eventually forcing a tie late in the game.  Pepperdine got some questionable calls and made a few key plays to get a four point win but it was still a good showing for this improving Long Beach team.  Sophomore point guard Kevin Houston (Big West all-freshman team last year) has really come a long way from a year ago.  He is playing with much more confidence, his ball handling is solid, and his shot is falling much more consistently.  6-11 center Anthony Coleman (Xavier transfer) scored 17 vs Pepperdine.  He has a nice touch around the basket with good range as well.  He is going to be a solid double digit scorer all season.  There are not many big men with his skill set on these types of teams.  Well regarded JC transfer forward Shawn Hawkins has probably not been aggressive enough thus far as he tries to blend in to his new team but he started to look more comfortable in the second half and made some great plays down the stretch.  He has a solid all around game and may be the best player on the team.  Senior G/F Cody Pearson and junior G/F Louis Darby scored 12 points a piece and both play excellent defense.  Pearson is a bit undersized as a forward but plays with a ton of heart and is a great vocal leader.  Shooting guard Jibril Hodges has a great looking stroke but has not shot at a high percentage yet this year.  He is still instant offense waiting to happen.  6-10 F/C Sam Byrd, a JC transfer, has provided quality size off the bench and senior forward Chris Jenkins has returned from an early season injury to add another experienced frontcourt option.   

 

Sacramento State is not a basketball school.  Last years 13 wins was a school record as a Division 1 team.  Their gym only holds 1,200 people.  Head coach Jerome Jenkins is doing his best to make good out of a difficult situation but after three straight seasons of improvement the Hornets appear to be taking a step back this year.  They lost their top three scorers and seven lettermen overall from last years team.  Of the six returnees, two are academically ineligible for the first semester.  One of those two, junior forward Chris Lange, started 11 games last year and was expected to start this season.  The team has brought in an influx of newcomers but none are very well regarded and the team is likely going to need time to gel.  The Hornets opened their season with a 21 point loss at Michigan and last time out beat Southern Utah in Sacramento by 7 points.  In that game they saw a 22 point lead get cut to 3 before prevailing.  The Hornets have averaged 22 turnovers in their first two outings.  Sac State was only 3-11 in road games last year.

 

Third year coach Larry Reynolds definitely has Long Beach back on the right track.  The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 22 point loss at Sac State last December.  They were already much improved by the second half of last season and this year are a completely different team with their two best players (Hawkins & Coleman) not playing a year ago.  Meanwhile Sac State has digressed some and is a horrible road team.  The 49ers will also be looking to avoid their first 0-3 start since 1998-1999 season.  Long Beach showed determination, heart, and ability on both sides of the court in last game but just fell short.  Today they put all together and get their first win of the season.  49ers by double digits.

 

Long Beach State -3.5   2 UNITS

 

 

LMU (-1.5, play to -3) at UC Riverside - Game #763-764 - 7:00pm Pacific

I watched the Lions easily dispose of Monmouth (NJ) last weekend in their home and season opener.  Monmouth may not sound like much but they are actually Northeast Conference defending champs and picked to win again this year with three returning starters.  They won 21 games and were in the NCAA tournament last year.  If their was a line on the game, LMU would have been about -5 due to home court and the final winning margin was 13, handily.  LMU returns three starters and 12 returning players in all this year.  They are much improved with the return of unheralded sophomore guard Brandon Worthy.  Worthy missed all of last season with injury but looks ready to do damage on opponents this year.  In my opinion Worthy is the top player on this team and by next year will easily be an all-conference player.  He can play all three perimeter positions, defend well, handle the ball, pass, and score in a variety of ways.  He looked like the unquestioned leader of this team.  Two other major contributors also missed last season with injuries.  Forward Daryl Pegram, an Indiana transfer, is now starting at one forward spot, and junior John Haywood looked to be one of the teams strongest rebounders and inside players.  He is coming off the bench still but is likely to play big minutes.  Senior guard Charles Brown averaged double figures last year and starts alongside Worthy in the backcourt.  Brown is a bit undersized but has quickness and some nice skills.  Forward Adoyah Evans-Miller starts at small forward and also averaged double figures last year.  A much improved 6-8 Austrailan sophomore Mathew Knight surprisingly earned the starting center job.  He can block shots and score inside.  He is backed up by 6-7 junior Dustin Brown and 6-10 junior Chris Ayer, both who are capable.  Junior Wes Wardrop and sophomore Damien Martin are both solid shooters and dependable guards off the bench.  There is plenty of depth and experience here.  This team mixes up defenses well and can score many ways.  Head coach Steve Aggers has plenty of options.

 

UC Riverside was left searching for answers when leading scorer and rebounder Nate Carter informed the team over the summer that he was transferring to Oklahoma.  That left the Highlanders with just one returning starter.  Center Vili Morton is a good one but his career has been hampered by injuries and he is still not 100% this year after having offseason surgery on his foot.  His supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired and I have always felt the coaching to be somewhat suspect here in recent years.  UCR is 1-2 on the season losing to Cal, beating a bad Belmont team, and in last game losing by 18 at Northern Arizona.  They are allowing opponents to shoot 57.8% from the field and are averaging over 20 turnovers through three games.  UCR had less than 1000 fans show up for home opener last year and LMU is likely to have some following in attendance so home court advantage will be somewhat minimized. 

 

The Lions went 5-0 on a trip to Spain over the summer that coach Aggers believed his team could use as a springboard to start the season.  So far they have done just that beating Monmouth by 13, and then pounding Division II opponent Northern Colorado 83-51 on the road.  They started the game on a 19-0 run and never looked back.  This team is sharp right now.  LMU has more skill, more depth, better defense, and play much better as a team.  I just see many more positives on LMU and I expect them to continue their winning ways tonight.  Give the small number.

 

LMU  -1.5   1 UNIT