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November 14 Hoops

Oklahoma vs Alabama (Under 139) - Thursday - 6:30pm Pacific
Several ingredients for a low scoring game tonight. Obvious first game jitters, two quality marquee opponents, neutral court setting, and experimental rules that include the 3-point line moved back 9 inches to the international standard.

Oklahoma is as solid defensively as anyone in the country. The lone key loss from last years team, forward Aaron McGhee, was 2nd on the team in scoring at 16.0ppg but was often considered a defensive liability. His loss means the team could be even better defensively than last year. It also means they will have to find inside scoring from 2 defensive minded returnees (Jabahri Brown & Johnnie Gilbert) and 3 true freshman (Matt Gipson, Kevin Bookout, & Larry Turner). Without it, OU is going to be a perimeter dominated, one dimensional offense. One or two from this frontcourt group may develop into consistent scorers, but that could be a month away.

OU only had the benefit of one exhibition game, beating a 1-4 Global Sports club. The final score was 76-61 for a total of 137, very low for an exhibition game. In that game only two players, senior Hollis Price and freshman Kevin Bookout shot better than 50% from the field. The rest of the team shot a combined 14-of-39 (35%). The team shot 9 of 22 from 3-point land and 3-point shooting will be one of the teams strengths this year. However, the extended 3-point line in this game could play tricks on the psyche of outside shooters who may hesitate and/or be less accurate at the slightly longer distance.

Alabama is very similar in that they have to replace their second leading scorer from last year, Rod Grizzard. Grizzard, like McGhee of OU, was also considered a defensive liability at times because of his laid back demeanor. His absence is a plus to the defense and a minus to the offense. Alabama is also coming off a low scoring game for exhibition standards, a 72-71 win over Athletes in Action. They shot just 24-of-62 or .387 for the game. Top reserve guard Antione Pettaway (right knee) & starting small forward Earnest Shelton (left foot) sat out the game with injuries but are expected to be fine for this game. However, this further hinders the teams already delicate chemistry this early in the season. Freshman small forward Kennedy Winston who was expected to help with scoring this year is suspended indefinitely and reserve guard Lucky Williams was declared academically ineligible for the first 14 games of the season.

Alabama starting guards Maurice Williams (.376) & Terrance Mead (.395) both shot under 40% from the field last season. Those numbers may improve this season, but it is unlikely it will be tonight vs two of the better defensive guards in the country in OU's Hollis Price & Quannas White.

Neither of these teams appear to have a weakness defensively, while they both have offensive concerns to address before the start of conference play. Both teams feature quality, hard nosed, big men which means easy baskets will be hard to come by. It is going to be very interesting to see where the points come from. Last year Alabama averaged 84.5 points a game at home, but just 64 away from home. Their six regular season games against ranked opponents netted an average total of 138.8 points last season. Oklahoma games netted an average total of 132.4 vs seven ranked teams last year in the regular season and just 127.0 in three non-conference away games. OU's Hollis Price openly stated in recent ESPN chat that the team does not like to push the ball when playing on the road. Alabama simply has trouble scoring away from home and that will not change vs defensive minded Sooners. First game jitters, neutral court setting, and extended 3-point line all in our favor here. I recommend getting bets in early as this line will most likely move lower. Do not expect either team to hit 70.

Under 139  1 UNIT

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