Utah at TCU (+3) - 4:30pm Pacific - Thursday - Game #101-102
I am willing to dismiss TCU for their bad loss at SMU last week. It was clearly both a letdown and look ahead situation for the Horned Frogs who had just won a huge game on the road at Oklahoma. In the first quarter and a half alone vs SMU, TCU missed 2 field goals, threw an interception, and allowed a key first down on a roughing the punter call. It was just that kind of night for them and as the game went on SMU gained enough confidence to pull off the upset. This is not only TCU's home opener, but also their first ever game in the Mountain West Conference. They host the defending league champs and it is a nationally televised game. They are sure to be up for this game and want to make a statement. TCU's defense was uncharacteristically bad last year but has obviously improved significantly in all areas as promised by head coach Patterson, a former defensive coordinator. On offense they have a 5th year senior at QB and plenty of quality weapons, even if RB Hobbs (Groin "?") is unable to go. Utah is a far cry from the team they were a year ago. They should have lost to Arizona in their opener and were not very impressive last week vs a bad Utah State team. The best thing they have going so far is solid play from RB Ganther, but if TCU can contain OU's Peterson on the road, they can contain Ganther at home. This will be Utah's first road game of the season and I believe they are ripe for a loss. TCU is 5-2 ATS as a home dog since 1998.
Early Look: TCU (+3) 1/2 UNIT
Houston at UTEP (-11.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Friday - Game #103-104
I was hoping for a smaller line in this matchup, but still cannot pass up a play on UTEP. It is amazing how far this program has come in such a short time under Mike Price. The Miners really were only outplayed twice last year, once in their season opener at Arizona State, and once two games later vs Boise State. Their only other losses all season came by 2 points at Tulsa after they had already clinched a bowl game, and by 5 vs Colorado at the Houston Bowl. In each of the last two losses they were -3 turnovers for the game. They are now 8-2 ATS last 10 games dating to last season. UTEP has 11 starters back including QB Palmer and they are still an upperclassmen dominated team. UCLA transfer Tyler Ebell is filling in the hole at RB very nicely. UTEP might even be better this year. They were completely dominant in season opening win over New Mexico State, holding the Aggies to -17 rushing yards. One New Mexico State senior after the game said that this UTEP team was the best he had ever played against including Cal & Texas. I have nothing against Houston, but I believe they are overmatched here. Cougars are 4-10 ATS as a dog (2-6 on the road) under Briles. Houston starting RB Evans (calf) is listed as questionable as of this writing. UTEP is coming off a BYE and will be looking to make a big splash in their first ever C-USA game. This will also mark the first ever ESPN broadcast of a UTEP game at the Sun Bowl. The Miners did lose two defensive line starters in opener, but they are deep at the position.
Early Look: UTEP (-12) 1/2 UNIT
Fresno State at Oregon (-2.5) - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #158-159
Last year was Mike Belotti's first ever losing season in 10 years at Oregon and it was not taken lightly. More than normal effort has been made in the offseason to insure a successful turn around and there is plenty of available talent. The Ducks gave up some big plays early and fell behind at Houston in season opener but were able to make adjustments at half-time and drew away for an impressive win. Senior QB Kellen Clemens has really stepped up his play not only on the field but with his leadership, something the team really lacked last season. He made big plays with both his arm and his legs vs Houston. All of his key skill position players are back plus two highly touted recruits in JC transfer WR James Finley and freshman RB Jonathan Stewart. Both are impact additions. The 7 returning starters on defense is the most Oregon has had since 1998. Fresno went 9-3 last year but beat ZERO teams that finished with a winning record in the regular season. They are a very experienced team and will provide a good test for Oregon, but I believe the Ducks are up for it, especially in a home night game. They have won 21 of 22 games straight up vs non-conference opponents at home. Boise State's loss at Oregon State last week does not bode well for the WAC against the Pac-10.
Early Look: Oregon (-2,5) 1/2 UNIT
UNLV at Nevada (+1.5) - 7:00pm Pacific - Game #177-178The Wolfpack looked bad in blowout loss to Washington State in their season opener, but I expect a much better performance from them this week. They are running new schemes on both sides of the ball this year and should show much improvement from game one to game two, especially with an extra day of preparation. It was a tough task for them to take on perhaps the Pac-10's second best team in Washington State in their first game. Additionally, they played most of the game without probably their most talented player in WR Flowers (1st team WAC last year) who was in the coaches doghouse for lack of intensity at practice. Nevada junior QB Rowe throws a very nice ball and this offense (29.7ppg last year) will put plenty of points up once they get going. UNLV may have been overrated following their close loss at New Mexico. The Rebels really struggled to beat a bottom level WAC team at home vs Idaho last week. They Rebels were outgained by 47 total yards and needed several breaks to win by 3 on a long last second field goal. Nevada has lost 5 straight to its hated instate rival but is 4-1 ATS all time in meetings played in Reno. Look for them to end the streak tonight.
Early Look: Nevada (+1.5) 1/2 UNIT
Troy State at Missouri (-20) - 11:00am Pacific - Game #183-184
The Tigers are coming off a tough 45-35 point loss to New Mexico on Saturday. Turnovers (-3) and poor defense ultimately led to their defeat. Every season MU coaches seem to come up with a new way to hold back standout QB Brad Smith. Switching schemes, trying to turn him into more of a pocket passer, etc. He is now a senior and coaches are giving him freedom to do whatever he wants. After a disappointing junior season, Smith is hungry to earn some respect for himself and his team. He has put up some monstrous numbers in first two outings this year. His 29 rush attempts vs New Mexico was a career high indicating he is willing to put this team on his shoulders. Defense is sure to be a point of emphasis this week and they will get a much easier task against a terrible Troy offense. The Trojans only return 4 starters and have holes to fill everywhere. Starting QB McDowell (part time starter last year) completed only 40% of his passes as a freshman. They finished with just 9 first downs and 190 total yards vs UAB last week. Their defense is not as bad as their offense, but also only return 4 starters on that side of the ball and lost their entire defensive line which has been the strength of the team in recent years. Missouri led 14-0 at Troy last year before losing 24-14 in embarrassing fashion on ESPN. That game sent their season in a downward spiral and they will be looking for revenge today.
